Alternate Running Back Theory

One of the most-read pieces on HMF every preseason is the article on alternate running back theory. Due to the popularity of the article and the success of the strategy, it has become a staple of the site. It may very well be the piece of advice for which HMF is most well-known. Edits, tweaks, and updates are made every year for entertainment purposes - and to keep the article fresh and current - but the substance remains the same. Enjoy this year’s version!

Now, there are many popular draft theories out there, and many of them are more well-known than the Alternate Running Back Theory (or “AltRB” for short).  You've likely heard about or tried most of those theories such as First Round Running Backs (mandating that you always grab a running back in the first round); Running Back-Running Back (which focuses on drafting running backs in each of the first two rounds); Zero RB (requiring you to wait until Rounds 5 and later to stock up on a plethora of running backs in the hopes that a few bust out and are usable); and Late Round Quarterback, which is a theory popularized by Numberfire’s J.J. Zachariason (eschewing quarterbacks in the early rounds in favor of wide receivers and running backs).

This article proposes a strategy that I have found to be quite effective over the last two decades of playing and analyzing fantasy football. The central premise of the AltRB strategy is that in the first ten to twelve rounds of your draft, you should be selecting a running back once every two rounds.  In other words, you need to come out of Rounds 1 and 2 with one running back, Rounds 3 and 4 with one running back, Rounds 5 and 6 with one running back, etc. 

The theory behind this strategy is simple: in most drafts, running backs fly off the board quickly, and there is a limited supply of usable players; therefore, you need to stock up on them early and often to get guys that are actually worth starting. If you’re a “Zero RB” truther, this strategy is going to rub you the wrong way. But I’m not here to convince you. I’m here to give you an alternate way of thinking. You can decide for yourself whether you like the AltRB strategy or not. But in my experience, AltRB tends to work out better than Zero RB, because the Zero RB strategy of waiting until Round 5 to draft running backs minimizes your chances of hitting on a true stud RB1.  That’s not the case with AltRB. In fact, with AltRB, you’re positioning yourself quite well to have a true stud workhorse leading your running back corps. (However, I do agree with the corollary idea behind Zero RB, which is that running back is a position that sees a ton of injuries, so you should load up on guys who can pop if opportunity strikes - which is why AltRB mandates drafting running backs at least once every two rounds for the first 10-12 rounds.) 

Generally, average fantasy output goes down in each successive round of a draft (and the discrepancy is even more noticeable in the early rounds).  So if you hammer away early and often by plucking away at running backs - a position that is top heavy, thin, and suffers a ton of injuries - you will be more likely to have a deep stable of guys to rotate in when injuries or bye weeks strike. (And plenty of ammo for trades!) 

Obviously, you could just draft running backs with your first four picks to try to ensure that you have a solid RB corps regardless of byes and injuries.  But there is opportunity cost associated with doing that; you're missing out on most of the elite wide receivers. In the majority of leagues, you have to start two or three wideouts.  Alternate RB theory allows you to ensure that you get enough quality running backs to weather (inevitable) injuries, while also giving you ample room to select the pass-catchers necessary to round out a solid team.   

In practice, AltRB is the sort of philosophy that many drafters adopt anyway without thinking about it.  If you grab Aaron Jones at the end of Round 1, you're probably looking to add someone like Chris Godwin or Tyreek Hill at the top of round 2, and then Le’Veon Bell or Melvin Gordon in Round 3.  My point is that you should be intentional about doing that, understand why you are doing that, and carry that type of thinking into subsequent rounds. It seems that folks put a lot of thought into what they are going to do in the first two or three rounds of their draft, but they don’t have much of a plan after that. If you want to win, you need a plan. And that’s where AltRB theory can win you your league.   

In many cases, you are going to be alternating between drafting running backs and wide receivers each round.  But the reason I don't call this the "Alternate Wide Receiver" theory is because I don't necessarily advocate taking a wide receiver in every other round.  For example, I'm perfectly fine with you selecting Travis Kelce or George Kittle in Round 2 of a 12-team draft to pair with Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry (though I would advise then taking a WR in Round 3 to ensure you get a WR1, and RB in Round 4 to follow the intent of the strategy).  I'm fine with you grabbing Zach Ertz in Round 3 once you've locked down Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay.  But those specific tight end exceptions aside, you're most likely going to be selecting wide receivers in the early rounds when you don't select running backs.  (Also, like last season, if you don’t get one of the top three tight ends, I suggest that you try to be the last person in your league to select one.)

And while I'm certainly a “Late Round QB” guy - generally never before Round 10 in a 12-team draft - there are always exceptions.  If I see Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson there in Round 4, I'm going to be tempted to take them (but never at any point earlier than that - the opportunity cost is too great).  But at that point, I've already probably got two running backs and a wide receiver.  (I would never take Mahomes or Jackson in Round 4 if I had fewer than two RB, or if I had used one of my first three picks on Kittle, Kelce, or Ertz). Mahomes and Jackson aside, though I am using Late Round QB theory in conjunction with Alternate RB.  Based on ESPN ADP, even if you’re the last guy in your league to take a quarterback in 2020, you’re likely to wind up with someone in this group: Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, or Ryan Tannehill. Each of those guys has QB1 upside. You’ll be fine.

Also, for 2020, I’m probably going to draft a running back in Round 1 no matter what. Michael Thomas is great and all, but you won’t feel so hot about your team if you take Thomas first and then wind up with Austin Ekeler as your RB1. I might be tempted take Thomas if he fell to the final 2-3 picks in Round 1, but that probably ain’t happening, and I’d still get a pretty darn good running back at the top of Round 2. The other WRs, though, with the exception of maybe Julio Jones, should not be under consideration. There’s no way I’d make Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, or Tyreek Hill my first round pick. You’ll likely miss out on the top running backs if you do that.

So how does a typical Alternate RB draft look? Well, unless you get a tight end like Kittle/Kelce in Round 2 or Ertz in Round 3, or an elite QB option like Jackson or Mahomes in Round 4 (which, let’s face it, won’t happen), your team will probably look something like this:

Rounds 1/2 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 3/4 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 5/6 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 7/8 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 9/10 - One RB and One TE or QB. 
Round 11 - QB or TE (whichever you don’t have yet)
Rounds 12/13 - Best player available at RB or WR (or TE if you didn’t select one yet)
Round 14 - Kicker (column on this to follow)
Round 15 - Defense (column on this to follow)
Round 16 - Best “lottery ticket” at RB or WR

Generally, I advocate drafting only one tight end. There are typically guys on the waiver wire than you can pick up for a useful spot start. And likewise, I do not endorse drafting multiple QBs unless your league requires it, you play in a 2 QB or Superflex league, or the rest of your league generally selects 3 QBs or more.  In most leagues, when your bye week hits, you'll be able to pick up a QB off the waiver wire for one week.  It's not a big deal.  Don't waste a valuable roster space on a player who you really don't need all that much, and likely won't play for more than one week.  Running backs and wide receivers are harder to find, and you’re required to start more of them. Use your final roster spot on a lottery ticket at one of those positions, not a backup quarterback!

Test out the AltRB theory in your mock drafts or leagues.  I bet you'll like your team.  You will be deep at the most premium positions, and will have set yourself up well for when injuries and bye weeks inevitably hit.