Offensive Coordinators: NFC North
This is the sixth article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how these coaches’ teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every team’s offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his offenses have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the NFC North.
Chicago Bears - Bill Lazor
It’s tough to get excited about a Bill Lazor offense. He has been the offensive coordinator twice for the Miami Dolphins (2014-2015) and twice for the Cincinnati Bengals (2017-2018). Aside from his 2014 Dolphins squad, every single Lazor offense has finished 26th or worst in total yardage, with his 2017 Bengals finishing dead last.
Yardage totals are the greatest concern for his offenses, in both the pass game and the run game. In his last three seasons as coordinator, Lazor has finished no better than 21st in rushing yards, and actually was second-to-last in rushing yards in 2017 (when he had talented backs Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard at his disposal). Similarly, his passing offenses have averaged out at 22nd in yardage; and they have never finished in the top half of the league. If Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller are to be useful fantasy assets this year, they’re likely going to have to do it on the strength of touchdowns, rather than yards.
And perhaps that’s possible. Lazor’s teams are generally middle-of-the pack when it comes to passing scores (average of 15th, with a high of 12th and a low of 19th). As such, there is potential for wide receivers Allen Robinson (WR13, ADP 3rd/4th round turn) and Anthony Miller (WR63, 14th round) to outperform their ADPs. The same goes for whichever backup-quality QB the Bears trot out under center, as both Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles are going undrafted.
Lazor offenses likewise tend to be middle-of-the-pack when it comes to rushing scores. His teams have finished between 14th and 16th in 3 of his past 4 seasons as offensive coordinator. That information makes me a little more open to drafting David Montgomery, given his lack of competition for carries. If he does indeed get the workload everyone anticipates, he may produce more touchdowns than expected.
Detroit Lions - Darrell Bevell
Darrell Bevell is another guy who has been in the NFL for a long time, and gives us a lot of data from which to draw our conclusions. He has a lengthy track record as a coordinator who is good for the running game . . . or so it seems. Hear me out on this.
With the exception of 2018, Bevell has been an offensive coordinator in the NFL every season since 2006. He has had stints with the Minnesota Vikings (2006-2010); Seattle Seahawks (2011-2017); and Detroit Lions (2019). He has had an astounding six seasons where his team has finished in the Top 5 in rushing yards: 2007 and 2008 with the Vikings, and four years straight from 2012-2015 with the Seahawks. Now, are those lofty finishes because Bevell has some special skill in calling running plays, or is it because he was coaching all-time greats and surefire Hall-of-Famers in Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch? In his past three seasons as a coordinator, his teams have finished no better than 21st in rushing yards. To me, that suggests it was transcendent talent propping up his rushing offenses, rather than Bevell having some sort of uncanny ability to develop potent rushing attacks.
Where Bevell really deserves more respect is as a passing game coordinator. His teams have averaged a finish in the top half of the league in passing scores, and recent history has been particularly kind to him. Five of his past 7 offenses have ranked in the top 10 in the league in passing scores, and 2 of his last 3 offenses have been in the top ten in passing yards, so there is reason to be bullish on QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones, and TE T.J. Hockenson (and maybe even some optimism for rookie RB D’Andre Swift’s role in the passing game!).
The takeaway on Bevell: Don’t buy into the propaganda that he’s just some run game guru. Yes, he does have quality run game results on his resume during the seasons when he coached Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson in their primes. But recent history suggests his play-calling is actually more beneficial to the passing game, and that is where you should focus when investing in the Detroit offense. Be wary of the Lions rushing offense (haven’t we said that since Barry Sanders retired?), as Bevell hasn’t had an offense finish inside the top 20 in rush yards since 2015. Rookie D’Andre Swift and incumbent starter Kerryon Johnson, unless they suddenly become Hall-of-Fame-level talents, are unlikely to produce a big fantasy season in 2020 with Bevell calling the plays.
Green Bay Packers - Nathaniel Hackett
Nathaniel Hackett is one of those guys who has been around for a while, and I just don’t understand how he keeps getting chances. He was the offensive coordinator for the 2013-2014 Buffalo Bills, the 2016-2018 Jacksonville Jaguars, and the 2019 Green Bay Packers. He is typically a bottom-half-of-the-league coordinator in terms of total yardage, with the sole exception coming with the 2017 Jaguars.
He has had some success with the running game, as he has two seasons where his teams finished among the top 2 in rushing yards (2013 Bills and 2017 Jaguars) and 3 seasons in the top 10 in rushing touchdowns (2013 Bills, 2017 Jaguars, and 2019 Packers). But he also has some really, really crummy rushing finishes, with three teams finishing in the bottom 5 in rushing scores (2014 Bills, 2016 Jaguars, and 2018 Jaguars). And the results can vary widely, even with the same personnel: in 2016 his Jags were the 2nd-best in the league in rushing scores; the very next season, they were 30th.
For this reason, I’m certainly skeptical that the Packers will repeat their 7th-place finish in rushing touchdowns, despite their selection of running back AJ Dillon in the second round of the NFL Draft. Even if the rushing TDs do continue at a good pace for the Pack, we have no way of knowing whether Aaron Jones is going to continue to get the lion’s share of the scores (probably not, based on regression) or if they’re going to be spread more evenly among Jones, Dillon, and Jamaal Williams.
Furthermore, Hackett’s play-calling in the passing game is also questionable. (Has Aaron Rodgers ever looked more ordinary than he did last season?) Hackett has never placed a team in the top half of the league in passing yards; in fact, last year’s 17th-place finish was the highest he’s ever had. With the Packers declining to bring in any wide receivers in the draft, it’s fair to fade Rodgers and WR Davante Adams, as they are likely to disappoint. I do remain high on second year TE Jace Sternberger and free agent signee WR Devin Funchess (whom I expect to start over Allen Lazard), as both are basically free/going as final round draft picks, and even bad offenses have some volume to spread.
Minnesota Vikings - Gary Kubiak
We’ve probably got more data on Kubiak than any other coordinator in the NFL. From 1995-2016, he was an offensive coordinator or head coach for 22 straight years. He served as offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos from 1995-2005; as head coach of the Houston Texans from 2006-2013; as offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens in 2014; and as head coach of the Broncos from 2015-16.
His results have been nothing short of astounding. His offenses have had an average finish of 9th in yards, with half of his offenses (11 total) finishing in the Top 5. That’s ridiculously, ridiculously good. In addition, he has only 3 seasons (13.6%) where his team has finished outside the top half of all teams in total yards. In other words, there’s better than an 86% chance that his Vikings are among the top half of the league in yardage this year; and they’ve got a 50/50 chance to finish inside the Top 5. If that’s the case, the industry is way too low on QB Kirk Cousins, WR Adam Thielen, WR Justin Jefferson, and TEs Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith. Plus, Kubiak’s teams finish inside the Top 10 in scoring just shy of 70% of the time. This is an offense that is being written off prematurely, and could present some tremendous value on draft day.
Even Dalvin Cook, a consensus first round pick, may be going too low. In 11 of his 22 seasons as a coordinator or head coach (exactly half), Kubiak’s teams have finished among the Top 5 in rushing scores. Cook may well be a more worthy selection than fellow running backs Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara, both of whom are regularly being selected ahead of him.
There are a few reasons to be wary of Kubiak’s production, though. First, in his early years with Denver, he was calling plays for Hall of Famers in John Elway and Terrell Davis. Elite talent is likely to boost production. Second, in his last few years in Denver, his offenses did not reach the lofty accolades of previous seasons. Specifically, in 2016 - the last time we saw Kubiak at the helm - his Broncos finished 27th in total yards and 22nd in scoring (to be fair, though, it was with a broken-down Peyton Manning). That type of finish would certainly be a disappointment this season. But if he comes close to reaching his career averages with the Vikings - 9th in yards and 12th in scoring - there will be a lot of happy fantasy managers, as none of the Vikings have a high draft cost other than first rounder Dalvin Cook and third-rounder Adam Thielen (who is probably more appropriately a second-round choice if Kubiak’s past offenses are any indication).
The links for Parts 1-5 in our series on offensive coordinators can be found below:
AFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east
AFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-north
AFC South: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-south
AFC West: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/2/offensive-coordinators-afc-west
NFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/6/offensive-coordinators-nfc-east