Betting on Continuity in 2020
In a COVID-19 world - a world without minicamps and preseason games - I have serious concerns about drafting players who are changing teams, playing with new quarterbacks, or adjusting to different schemes. Guys in these scenarios might require additional time to get on the same page with their teammates. Now, to be clear, I’m not saying I wouldn’t draft any players whose situations have changed. What I’m saying is that if I’m choosing between two fairly comparable players when I’m on the clock, I’m probably going to lean toward the guy whose situation is unchanged from last season.
To that end, I’ve put together a list of the teams/players who have experienced little to no change since the end of 2019, as well as those whose situations have drastically changed. Keep these nuggets in mind during your drafts when you are on the clock.
Teams/Players to Target:
Bills - HC Sean McDermott and OC Brian Daboll continue to run the offense. That should give you extra confidence in QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, WR John Brown, and WR Cole Beasley. I would not be confident in newly-acquired WR Stefon Diggs and third-round-RB Zack Moss, at least early on in the season.
Cardinals - HC Kliff Kingsbury and and OC Tom Clements return, which bodes well for QB Kyler Murray, RB Kenyan Drake, WR Larry Fitzgerald, and WR Christian Kirk. One does tend to wonder if it may take WR DeAndre Hopkins some time to acclimate since he does not already have a rapport with Murray.
Chiefs - I’m sure you didn’t need me to tell you to draft Chiefs players, but having another year with HC Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy at the helm bodes well for all of their fantasy players (and how hasn’t Bieniemy gotten a head coaching job yet?). QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Mecole Hardman, and TE Travis Kelce are all solid choices. Hardman (Round 12) and Watkins (Round 14) are great values at their ADPs.
Eagles - Head coach Doug Pederson calls his own plays, and he’s pretty much gotten the band back together for 2020. It’s unclear when WR Alshon Jeffery will be back in 2020, and they’ve added WR Jalen Reagor to the mix, but the rest of the cast should be returning to the same roles they had last year: QB Carson Wentz, RB Miles Sanders, WR DeSean Jackson, and TEs Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz (and maybe even WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside could be a sneaky-good draft choice).
Falcons - HC Dan Quinn and OC Dirk Koetter are back for another run in Atlanta, which bodes well for the Atlanta passing game, particularly QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, and WR Calvin Ridley. RB Todd Gurley and TE Hayden Hurst are new to the crew this year, so they may be less involved than Jones and Ridley in the passing game in the early part of the season.
49ers - Head coach Kyle Shanahan and his offensive coordinator (that is, himself) will be calling plays this year. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Tevin Coleman, and TE George Kittle have already shown that they can thrive together in this offense, so they may be able to repeat their prior successes in 2020. WR Deebo Samuel would also be on this list but for his foot injury. Could his time off the field finally allow WR Dante Pettis to emerge? (Just kidding - I’m not getting on that train again.)
Jets - HC Adam Gase and OC Dowell Loggains both return, although I’m not entirely convinced that’s a good thing. In any event, QB Sam Darnold, RB Le’Veon Bell, WR Jamison Crowder, and TE Chris Herndon are all familiar with the offense and with what Gase and Loggains are trying to do, which may help them get off to a decent start.
Lions - HC Matt Patricia and OC Darrell Bevell are back with Detroit in 2020. That’s good news for the passing offense, which was humming along nicely until QB Matthew Stafford’s injury last year. The return of the coaching staff should be good for the fantasy prospects of Stafford, RB Kerryon Johnson, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones, and TE T.J. Hockenson. Johnson, in particular, may stay involved long enough to torpedo rookie RB D’Andre Swift’s appeal this season.
Packers - HC Matt LaFleur and OC Nathaniel Hackett are back for Round 2. Thus, continuity remains for QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Davante Adams, WR Allen Lazard, and TE Jace Sternberger.
Raiders - You can typically make a lot of money betting against the Raiders, but they may actually be a safe team to rely on this year. HC Jon Gruden and OC Greg Olson return, as do QB Derek Carr, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Tyrell Williams, WR Hunter Renfrow, and TE Darren Waller.
Rams - Technically they’ve changed their offensive coordinator, but Sean McVay has always called his own plays, so the system is going to be the same for the returning players. QB Jared Goff, WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp, and TE Tyler Higbee are all decent candidates to get off to a hot start.
Ravens - Lots to like in this offense. HC John Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are back to steer the offense with QB Lamar Jackson, RB Mark Ingram, WR Hollywood Brown, WR Miles Boykin, and TE Mark Andrews.
Saints - Never bet against the Saints. HC Sean Payton and OC Pete Carmichael have been together for over a decade, and the results have been nothing short of spectacular. QB Drew Brees, RB Alvin Kamara, RB Latavius Murray, WR Michael Thomas, and TE Jared Cook are all great selections in 2020 if you want to get off to a hot start.
Seahawks - This is always a good offense to invest in. Pete Carroll is back for what seems like his 20th season as head coach, and OC Brian Schotteinheimer returns for another ride as well. This is good new for QB Russell Wilson, RB Chris Carson, WR Tyler Lockett, and WR DK Metcalf.
Steelers - Pittsburgh is a bit of a sleeper team to endorse this year, but they’re actually in a pretty good situation. Mike Tomlin is one of the longest-tenured head coaches in the NFL, and Randy Fichtner has been the offensive coordinator the past two seasons after several years as the team’s quarterbacks coach. QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB James Conner, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Diontae Johnson, and WR James Washington are all familiar with the offense and each other, which bodes well for their fantasy prospects in 2020.
Texans - HC Bill O’Brien and OC Tim Kelly are back, but much of the offense has changed. The only returning starters of note are QB Deshaun Watson and WR Will Fuller. Due to their familiarity with each other and the offense, I’m much more likely to grab Fuller than WR Brandin Cooks this season. Quarterbacks often look for the guys whom they already know they can trust, and Watson has made sweet music with Fuller many times before.
Titans - Mike Vrabel and Arthur Smith were finally able to get this offense humming last year once they sent QB Marcus Mariota to the bench. QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR AJ Brown, WR Corey Davis, and TE Jonnu Smith all return from last year’s most efficient offense.
Vikings - Although the team lost offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to the Browns, new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak was a consultant to the team last year, and no hiccups are expected with him now calling the plays. This gives reason for optimism in QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, and TEs Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith.
Proceed with Caution:
Bears - The team has a new offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor, although HC Matt Nagy is expected to continue to call plays. But if the team switches to QB Nick Foles, who is new to the system, it could negatively impact the offense as a whole, which would have a deleterious effect on returning RBs David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen and WRs Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller.
Bengals - The head coach and offensive coordinator return, but they’re breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow. This is the continuity situation I’m least concerned about, though, because Cincinnati returns its starting running back in Joe Mixon, its starting wide receiver trio in AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross, and its starting tight end in CJ Uzomah. This all comes down to Burrow, and I’m willing to bet on Burrow.
Broncos - HC Vic Fangio returns, but OC Pat Shurmur is new to the team this year. In addition, there are numerous new players in the starting offense, including RB Melvin Gordon, WR Jerry Jeudy, and WR KJ Hamler. I really like this offense’s potential, but more in 2021 than this season.
Browns - They have a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator. Hard pass. This team is unlikely to start hot if they’re installing a new scheme without the benefit of minicamps or preseason games.
Buccaneers - In probably the biggest non-COVID storyline of the offseason, Tom Brady left Foxboro. I love Brady - he’s the GOAT - but I’m skeptical of a 43-year-old quarterback changing teams. If there’s value to be found in this offense, it could be RB Ronald Jones.
Chargers - The team returns its head coach and offensive coordinator, but there are question marks at quarterback. Will rookie Justin Herbert start? If so, that likely doesn’t bode well for the rest of the offense as he learns in his rookie year. Will it instead by Tyrod? He’s familiar with the system, but he also tends to throw far less than Philip Rivers did, so it likely will result in a depressed stat line for RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and TE Hunter Henry.
Colts - Head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni return, but QB Philip Rivers is new to the party. He played for Reich previously when Reich was the offensive coordinator in San Diego, but it is unclear whether Sirianni uses the same terminology from Reich’s offense (remember, Sirianni was hired to be the offensive coordinator for Josh McDaniels’ Colts before McDaniels had a change of heart and backed out of the Colts’ HC job). In any event, proceed with caution with Rivers, WR TY Hilton, and the rest of the Colts’ offense.
Cowboys - Mike McCarthy takes over for Jason Garrett as head coach, but the rest of the band is back from last season. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is expected to continue to call plays for a returning ensemble of QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Amari Cooper, and WR Michael Gallup. About the only new face is first round WR CeeDee Lamb, who replaces WR Randall Cobb. I don’t *think* this offense will skip a beat, but who knows if McCarthy meddles enough to mess up the mojo.
Dolphins - Brian Flores returns as head coach, but he has replaced Chad O’Shea with the creative Chan Gailey as offensive coordinator. There could potentially be a new quarterback, as well, as the team spent its first round pick on Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. For that reason, I’m probably lower on WR Devante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki than most.
Giants - All of the fantasy-relevant players from the starting offense return: QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Golden Tate, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton, and TE Evan Engram. But the team has a new head coach in Joe Judge and a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett. While I do remain bullish on the potential of a Garrett offense, I have concerns that things may not click right away for the Giants due to the lack of minicamps and preseason. In football, timing is everything, and these guys have been deprived of an opportunity to work on their timing. Plus, their opening schedule is brutal. I’d prefer to stay away from these guys until October, and then make them premium trade targets.
Jaguars - Jay Gruden takes over as offensive coordinator for the Jaguars this year. Although it’s probably an improvement for the team in the long run, in the short term the Jags may struggle as QB Gardner Minshew, RB Leonard Fournette, and WRs DJ Chark and Dede Westbrook adapt to Gruden’s scheme. One plus is that new TE Tyler Eifert played for Gruden in Jacksonville, so he should already know the offense.
Panthers - New head coach, new offensive coordinator, new quarterback. No thanks. As good as CMC is, there’s still considerable risk with all these changes.
Patriots - “The Hoodie” returns as head coach with Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, but this is their first year together without Tom Brady. They do have a former MVP to work with in QB Cam Newton, but he and Brady are very, very different types of players. Early on, it may be useful to bet on RBs Sony Michel and James White, since they are both well familiar with the offense and their production depends less on the quarterback than the wide receivers (though White, admittedly, does typically do a lot of damage through the air).
Washington Football Team - You’re really getting your money’s worth with this recommendation: avoid Washington! They have a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator, without many established skill position players. The thing is, most of Washington’s guys are appropriately priced, so they could strangely end up being values.
Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments!