Don't Overrate the Konami Code

This offseason, we are seeing market over-correction at its finest. For years, we have found hidden value in quarterbacks who added fantasy points using their legs, as ten rushing yards are typically worth more than ten passing yards, and rushing touchdowns are typically worth more than passing touchdowns. The added value that mobile quarterbacks brought to the table is commonly referred to as “Konami Code” (h/t Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis), in homage to the old Nintendo games made by Konami that all had the same cheat code that you could use at the start of the game. (See https://contra.fandom.com/wiki/Konami_Code.)

For years, mobile quarterbacks have been seen as a cheat code. They are a way to give yourself an instant advantage at the outset of the game. But this year, unlike in years past, it seems like most of the “Konami Code” quarterbacks are viewed by the consensus as the top quarterbacks anyway, and they’re going early. Now, on this site we’re late-round-QB truthers, so I’m not in love with taking someone like Patrick Mahomes (2nd round ADP on ESPN), Lamar Jackson (2nd), Deshaun Watson (4th), Russell Wilson (5th), Kyler Murray (5th), or Dak Prescott (5th) in the early rounds. So if you’re waiting on quarterback this year, where is the value?

The value is in the guys who consistently put up big numbers absent any rushing upside: those classic dropback passers who excel by chucking the ball down the field and racking up passing scores. Those guys, by and large, put up production pretty darn close to the guys with rushing upside, but come at a significantly discounted cost. Let’s focus on the difference in points per game between the Konami Code guys and the classic dropback passers.

Last year, Lamar Jackson had a crazy outlier season, putting up 27.7 points per game, so I’m going to exclude him for purposes of this exercise. QB2 in fantasy point per game was Deshaun Watson, at 21.4. QB13 in PPG was Matt Ryan, at 17.8. In other words, if you exclude an outlier season like Jackson’s, the difference between the the top QB and the lowest-level QB1 (in a 12-team league) is less than 4 fantasy points per game. But you’re paying a significant premium for those 4 extra points! Folks, say it with me now: quarterbacks are replaceable.

In 2019, the following quarterbacks had between 21.4 (QB2) and 17.4 (QB14) fantasy points per game, a difference of four points: Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Jeff Driskel, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. The guys who aren’t much of a rushing threat are listed in bold. (And if you drop down another .2 fantasy points per game, Carson Wentz also makes the list.)

Two things stand out. Number one: Detroit passers were top fantasy assets last year, regardless of whether Matt Stafford or Jeff Driskel were under center. That makes Stafford (being drafted as QB13, in Round 11) a tremendous value this season. Second, there are ample other dropback passers - Brees (QB8, 8th round ADP), Ryan (QB9, 9th round), Rodgers (QB11, 10th round), Wentz (QB12, 10th round), and Tannehill (QB18, 14th round) - who can provide QB1 value this year and whom you do not need to reach for. I suspect I’ll own a LOT of shares of Ryan Tannehill this year.

And even if you’re a slave to the Konami Code, there are still ample options for you to pick from who won’t break the bank, notably Josh Allen (QB10, 9th round), Cam Newton (QB14, 12th round), Daniel Jones (QB15, 13th round), Joe Burrow (QB16, 13th round), and Gardner Minshew (QB28, 15th round). Minshew is a particularly sneaky selection, as he was 5th in rushing yards among quarterbacks last year, behind only Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson - and he wasn’t even the team’s starter the entire season!

Value is the name of the game, and there are plenty of worthy signal-callers you can snag late in your drafts this season.