Offensive Coordinators: NFC West

This is the long-awaited final article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how their teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his teams have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals - Tom Clements

Tom Clements served as the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills from 2004-2005, and for the Green Bay Packers from 2012-2014. He did a pretty good job. His teams averaged 15th in yardage, 9th in scoring, 14th in rushing yards, 16th in rushing touchdowns, 16th in passing yards, and 11th in passing touchdowns. His last two seasons as a coordinator were even more inspiring, with an average finish of 5th in total yards and scores, 9th in rushing yards, 8th in rushing scores, 7th in passing yards, and 8th in rushing scores. These recent finishes may justify the lofty draft status of WR DeAndre Hopkins (WR2, 1st round ADP), RB Kenyan Drake (RB8, 2nd round), and QB Kyler Murray (QB5, 5th round). But they also suggest that there could be some real value in the selections of Christian Kirk (WR44, 11th round ADP), Larry Fitzgerald (WR62, 14th round), Andy Isabella (undrafted at WR), and Hakeem Butler (undrafted at WR).

Los Angeles Rams - Kevin O’Connell

O’Connell served as the offensive coordinator for Washington last year, but was not retained by Ron Rivera when he took over as head coach for the Washington Football Club in 2020. O’Connell was 31st in yardage and 32nd in scores, but he didn’t have much to work with in Washington. Head coach Sean McVay will still be the straw that stirs the drink in Los Angeles, which means we should expect that the Rams’ offensive finish should be more in line with what we have seen in the past under McVay, rather than what we have seen in a limited sample from O’Connell. I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Connell was this year’s Byron Leftwich, going from coordinating one of the worst offenses in the league to one of the best.

San Francisco 49ers - Kyle Shanahan

Kyle Shanahan, the son of Super Bowl winning head coach Mike Shanahan, has been an offensive coordinator or head coach in the NFL every year since 2008. He has spent time with Houston (2008-2009); Washington (2010-2013); Cleveland (2014); Atlanta (2015-2016); and with San Francisco as head coach (2017-2019). The 49ers do not have an offensive coordinator, and Shanahan calls the plays.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Shanahan’s track record is that he has put up good results even with teams like Washington and Cleveland that have been, at least in recent memory, generally poor offensively. For his career, Shanahan’s offenses average as the 10th-best in yardage, and he has guided 5 offenses (including last season’s 49ers) to a Top 5 finish in total yards. He’s only had two teams finish in the bottom half of the league in yardage, and none worse than 23rd. In the past five seasons, he’s only had one team finish outside the Top 12 in yardage, and that was his 49ers squad that lost Jimmy Garoppolo to a knee injury was starting Nick Mullens at quarterback (and they still finished 16th!). Shanahan offenses are a very, very, very safe bet to put up yards.

Scoring has been more of a mixed bag, with an average finish of 16th. Not good, not bad. Two of his three seasons have been 20th or worse; but last year they were second. It may be wise to expect some negative regression in the scoring department in 2020.

Shanahan is effective in calling both run plays and pass plays. In the past 8 seasons, he has had only 1 season with a finish worse than 13th in rushing touchdowns, and has had 4 seasons in the Top 5 (including a first-place finish last year). He has been particularly effective moving the ball down the field using the pass, with an average finish of 11th. His offenses finish among the top 10 in passing yards about half the time, and he has never had a team finish worse than 20th. In fact, only two of his squads have finished outside the top half of the league in passing yards. This bodes well for pass-catchers like TE George Kittle, rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk, and WR Deebo Samuel whenever he returns from injury.

When the team gets in close, though, Shanny likes to run. Half of his teams have finished as a bottom-half offense in passing touchdowns, and only 3 of his offenses (25%) have finished in the top 10. Contrast this with his rushing offenses (which have finished in the top 7 in rushing touchdowns 3 of the past 4 years) and you get a pretty good idea of what Shanahan wants to do when they get in the red zone. RB Raheem Mostert (RB28, ADP 7th round) and RB Tevin Coleman (RB42, ADP 11th round) could be great values this year given their minimal cost.

Seattle Seahawks - Brian Schottenheimer

Schottenheimer has likely been in the league as long as he has out of deference to his father Marty’s reputation. In his own right, he’s been fairly disappointing until recently. He served as offensive coordinator for the New York Jets from 2006-2011, for the Rams from 2012-2014, and for the Seattle Seahawks the past two seasons. That’s 11 seasons at the helm, and in more than half his offense has ranked 20th or worse in total yards; and a whopping 81% have finished 15th or worse. He hasn’t had a top ten offense in yardage in a decade, so keep that in mind when evaluating Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, and the Seahawks’ pass catchers this year.

Historically, the positives to his play-calling have come in the run game. He has had 5 seasons in the Top 10 in rushing yards, including two first place finishes (most recently in 2018). He has also had four offenses place among the Top 10 in rushing touchdowns, but none in almost a decade. His two Seattle squads have ranked 1st and 4th in rushing yards, though, so Chris Carson may be seriously devalued at his third round price tag. There just may not be considerable touchdown upside. Historically, Schottenheimer’s offenses are middle-of-the-pack (15th) in rushing touchdowns, and only marginally better (13th) since he has been in Seattle.

Schottenheimer’s passing offenses have run the gamut. Over 9 seasons with the Jets and Rams, he never had an offense finish better than 9th in passing touchdowns. But in the past two years with the Seahawks, he has finished no lower than 5th. That suggests that you should expect good touchdown production from Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf (and maybe Greg Olsen), but that you should not expect them to post lofty yardage totals. Over the course of his career, Schotty’s offenses have ranked 22nd in passing yards, and it’s only bumped up to an average of 21st since he has been in Seattle.

The links for Parts 1-7 in our series on offensive coordinators can be found below:

AFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east

AFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-north

AFC South: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-south

AFC West: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/2/offensive-coordinators-afc-west

NFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/6/offensive-coordinators-nfc-east

NFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/12/offensive-coordinators-nfc-north

NFC South: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/12/offensive-coordinators-nfc-south