Offensive Coordinators: AFC West

This is the fourth article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how their teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his teams have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the AFC West.

Denver Broncos - Pat Shurmur

We’ve got a lot of data on Shurmur. He’s been an offensive coordinator or head coach in the NFL in every season since 2009. He had a couple really good years with the Eagles in 2013 and 2014 (Top 5 offenses both seasons), but other than that, his offenses have been very average: 19th in total yards, 18th in touchdowns, 18th in rushing yards, 17th in rushing scores, 16th in passing yards, and 19th in passing touchdowns (and that’s with those top 5 Eagles offenses propping up the averages).

I bring this up only because I think there’s a misconception that Shurmur is some kind of offensive guru, when really, he’s been pretty average for most of his career. If there’s any reason for optimism, it’s that his Giants offense last year finished in the Top 5 in passing touchdowns, so maybe that’s a reason to buy into Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game this year. But this is also a coach who has had his passing offense finish 21st in 2 of the past 4 years, so lofty expectations are probably misplaced. Realistically, the floor for the Denver passing offense is somewhere around 18th in passing yards and 21st in rushing yards, as those have been Shurmur’s worst finishes since 2013. Drew Lock probably won’t be a regular fantasy starter, but he’ll likely have some viable streamer weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Bieniemy

Bieniemy has been Andy Reid’s right-hand man with the Chiefs for the past two seasons. That coincides with Pat Mahomes’ two years as starter, his MVP award, and the Chiefs Super Bowl win. Under Bieniemy, the Chiefs have finished first and sixth in yardage, and first and fifth in scoring. The passing has been particularly prolific, with an average finish of third in passing scores and fourth in passing yards. But you don’t need me to tell you to draft Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, or Travis Kelce. Is there anything useful about the Chiefs that our analysis can offer you?

Maybe this: if there has been any weakness in this offense, it’s the running game. While the running scores have been around the top third of the league (average finish of 10th), the running yardage has been middle of the pack, with an average finish of 20th. Keep that rushing info in mind when evaluating whether to snag Clyde Edwards-Helaire this season, who has an average draft position that is creeping up into the second round. That’s a pretty heavy price tag for a guy who is likely to split carries for at least part of the year, for a team that finished last season 23rd in rushing. I do love Edwards-Helaire as a dynasty asset, but in redraft, he’s a bit too pricey given his expected return.

Los Angeles Chargers - Shane Steichen

To be completely candid, I had no idea who Steichen was before I started researching this article. I could not find him in the databases I relied upon, and instead had to rely upon the info for head coach Anthony Lynn from last year, which was Steichen’s first season as offensive coordinator. He took over the reins in late October after the team fired OC Ken Whisenhunt. For the season, the Chargers ranked 10th in total yardage but only 21st in scoring. They were 28th in rushing yards, but 6th in passing yards. Those ranks might flip-flop this season as they move from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor. (Or maybe the rushing won’t improve and the passing will decline if they turn to rookie Justin Herbert right away?). In any event, the Chargers were middle-of-the-pack in rushing touchdowns (20th) and passing touchdowns (17th), and it’s hard to see that improving with journeyman Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert under center.

It’s difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about what this offense will look like given Steichen’s limited experience as an offensive coordinator and the significant transitions that they have in personnel, with Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon having bolted (pun intended) for greener pastures. But it would be wise to expect more limited production from the pass-catchers in this offense. Last season, Rivers averaged 37 pass attempts per game. In Tyrod Taylor’s last season as a starter (for Buffalo in 2017), he averaged 28 pass attempts per game. That year, Taylor’s offensive coordinator was . . . current Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn. Assuming a similar volume with Taylor under center in 2020, that would be 9 fewer passes per game for the Chargers than last season. Rivers completed 2/3 of his passes last year, so even if Taylor repeats Rivers’ completion percentage (which would be a career high for him over a full season), that’s still 6 fewer completions per game.

Mike Williams was never a high-volume player, so his line probably won’t change much even with a dip in the team’s number of pass attempts. But Keenan Allen, who has averaged 101 receptions per year over the past three seasons, and Austin Ekeler, who snagged 92 receptions last year, both could see a meaningful drop in production. If you assume that 4 of those 6 lost completions per game are split between Allen and Ekeler (2 apiece), both of them would lose 32 receptions for the season. Allen, who typically isn’t a big touchdown producer, looks significantly less attractive if he has only 69 receptions; and Ekeler, who has never been much of a rushing threat, does not come anywhere close to returning value on his second round ADP if he catches only 60 balls. Both of these guys are fades for me on draft day.

Las Vegas Raiders - Greg Olson

This guy gets an awful lot of chances for someone who regularly churns out bottom-half offenses. He’s been an offensive coordinator over 12 different seasons since 2005, including stints with the Lions (2005), Rams (2006-2007), Buccaneers (2009-2011), Raiders (2013-2014, 2018-2019); and, Jaguars (2015-2016). But only twice has he finished in the top half of the league in total yardage (2006 Rams and 2019 Raiders). Optimists would focus on the Raiders’ 9th-ranked passing offense last year, but pessimists would focus on the fact that they were only 19th in passing touchdowns despite their lofty yardage total. Perhaps that could improve this year with the addition of rookie playmakers Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards in the draft. Olson’s past, though, suggests that the team is more likely to finish in the bottom half of the league than repeat it’s Top-10 finish.

I also have concerns about second-year RB Josh Jacobs. Although the team finished 13th in rushing yards and 18th in rushing touchdowns, those ranks were a bit of an outlier compared to the other recent finishes of Olson squads. In his previous four years as an offensive coordinator, his teams finished, on average, as the 27th-best in terms of rushing yards and a pathetic 29th in rushing scores. Buyer beware with Jacobs!

The links for Parts 1-3 in our series on offensive coordinators can be found below:

AFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east

AFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-north

AFC South: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-south