Offensive Coordinators: AFC South

This is the third article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how their teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every team’s offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his offenses have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the AFC South.

Houston Texans - Tim Kelly

Kelly’s first season on the job was last year, and the results were respectable. The Texans rated in the top half of the league in every meaningful offensive category: 13th in total yards, 14th in scoring, 9th in rushing (pretty incredible considering Carlos Hyde was the primary ball-carrier), 10th in rushing touchdowns (ditto), 15th in passing yards, and 12th in passing touchdowns. There are some concerns that Houston’s production may dip with the Texans having traded DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason, but there’s also the chance that they may just air it out even more with the speedy trio of Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Kenny Stills. They could also get more receiving out of their backfield now that David Johnson is in town. All things considered, my expectation is that the Texans should have a top-half offense once again. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, who are both going in the 9th round, are fantastic values who could yield a good return on investment.

I’m a bit more skeptical of David Johnson. Even though his price is reasonable (4th round), I’m concerned about how slow he looked when he was on the field for the Cardinals last season. He’s a high upside, low floor gamble. Backup running back Duke Johnson, however, is a different story. He’s basically free, going in the 14th round, but he could be in line for a heavy workload if David Johnson is as broken down as he looked last year. Between the two, Duke is probably the better fantasy selection, because he doesn’t really cost much, whereas David is still costing you one of your first four draft choices. If David doesn’t pan out and you selected him in round 4, your fantasy team is in trouble. If Duke doesn’t pan out and you selected him in Round 14, you shrug your shoulders, cut him, and pick up a different player off waivers. But if Duke hits… you could have fantasy gold, as last year’s rushing offense for Houston (buoyed assuredly by the performance of Deshaun Watson) was top ten in yards and scores.

Indianapolis Colts - Nick Sirianni

Two years on the job, and two years with markedly different results. I guess that’s what happens when you go from a healthy Andrew Luck in 2018 to a banged up Jacoby Brissett in 2019. Philip Rivers, who was signed in the offseason from the Chargers, ain’t in Andrew Luck’s class, but he’s probably an upgrade on Brissett… we think. So for Sirianni, the best we can probably do is average 2018 and 2019 to give us a reasonable approximation of what we can expect from his Colts with Rivers under center: 16th in total yards, 11th in scoring, 14th in rushing yards, 13th in rushing touchdowns, 18th in passing yards, and 11th in passing touchdowns. Remember, this is a team that has invested heavily in its offense in the second round of the past two drafts (WR Parris Campbell, WR Michael Pittman, and RB Jonathan Taylor), so it’s certainly not unreasonable to expect some improvement over last year’s uninspiring offense, which ranked 25th in the NFL in total yards. Something right around the middle of the pack is reasonable, which doesn’t scare me off of any of the team’s weapons. Rivers will probably be what he always is, a reliable bye-week streamer who will finish the season as a low-end QB1 due to durability, but who never really has high-end QB1 weeks. TY Hilton is probably appropriately priced, if not a tad undervalued, but it’s hard to pounce on him ahead of the wide receivers who are being drafted ahead of him. Pittman could well be a value, but it’s always difficult to project what a rookie wide receiver’s workload will be. The guy that’s interesting is Taylor. If he gets the lion’s share of the snaps from the outset, he could be a fantasy superstar, given his talent level and the offensive line he runs behind. But in a COVID-19 world, with no offseason program and (likely) no preseason games, I’m wondering if we see a healthy dose of Marlon Mack in the first part of the year, who himself is coming off a 1,000-yard campaign. Mack is probably a good value right now, as he’s coming off the board in the 10th round. That’s not too shabby for a guy who may well be the primary ball-carrier for the Colts for the first half of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Jay Gruden

Gruden is probably one of the more underappreciated play-callers in the NFL. He has almost a decade in the NFL as an offensive coordinator or head coach, including 3 years as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator (2011-2013) and nearly 6 years as Washington’s head coach. He generally orchestrates an offense that’s right at the league average. And before you roll your eyes, remember that “league-average” means that you’re still better than about half the teams.

Gruden’s overall totals are depressed a bit due to his last two seasons in Washington (partially due to injuries, a lack of receiving threats, and subpar QB play), but prior to that, he was generally good for a finish around 14th in total offense and total scoring. Over the course of his coaching career, he’s had a team finish as high as 3rd in total yards (Washington in 2016); and 6th in scoring, 3rd in rushing touchdowns, 5th in passing yards, and 4th in passing touchdowns (2013 Bengals). In fact, he’s had 3 teams finish in the top 10 in passing scores, which bodes well for second-year QB Gardner Minshew and pass-game weapons like DJ Chark and Tyler Eifert.

If there’s any weakness to his play-calling, it’s with RB rushes, as his teams average out as the 20th-best team in the league in terms of rushing yards. While that’s not terrible, it’s certainly not great. It could potentially support an RB2, so Leonard Fournette is being overdrafted if he’s going as a low-end RB1, but is just fine as a high-end RB2. On the mock drafts I’ve seen on ESPN, Fournette is going as a late second round pick, and that’s too high; on Yahoo, he’s going as a mid-to-late fourth round pick, which seems like good value. I’d also pounce on someone like DJ Chark, because he’s pretty much the only viable option in the passing game, and he’s going in the 6th round on ESPN. Even assuming no improvement and just a repeat of last year - 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, and 8 touchdowns - Chark will well outperform his draft position.

Titans - Arthur Smith

Smith’s offense is the elixir that saved Ryan Tannehill’s career and made Derrick Henry a franchise player. Although he only has one season as a coordinator under his belt, his work for the 2019 Titans took the league by storm. The Titans finished 3rd in the league in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns, and they basically return the same core in 2020 with the exception of swapping RT Jack Conkln with first-round pick Isaiah Wilson. The offense is primed to pick up right where it left off last year.

Although the Titans are generally considered to be a running team, keep in mind that last season, the passing game finished 8th in touchdowns - and that was with Marcus Mariota starting the first 6 games of the season and throwing only 7 touchdowns during that span. Even with Mariota holding the offense back for the first third of the season, the Titans managed to finish 12th in yardage and 10th in scoring overall in 2019, which bodes will for the future with a full year of Ryan Tannehill under center. In addition to being bullish on Derrick Henry, Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and maybe even Corey Davis as a final-round flier. Also, don’t sleep on rookie Darrynton Evans - he’s in line for a massive workload should anything happen to Henry.

The links for Parts 1 and 2 in our series on offensive coordinators can be found below:

AFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east

AFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-north