Offensive Coordinators: NFC South

This is the seventh article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how their teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his teams have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons - Dirk Koetter

Dirk Koetter has been a football coach for a long time. Before he got to the pro level, he was with San Francisco State (1985), UTEP (1986-1988); Mizzou (1989-1993); Boston College (1994-1995); Oregon (1996-1997); Boise State (as head coach from 1998-2000); and Arizona State (as head coach from 2001-2006). He then made the leap to the pros. He has been with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2007-2011); Atlanta Falcons (2012-2014); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015 offensive coordinator; 2016-2018 head coach); and again with the Falcons (2019).

His offenses have been especially impactful since 2012. Since that time, 75% of his offenses have finished in the top ten in total yards, and only one of his offenses has been outside the top half of the league. The passing game has been particularly effective in recent years, as his squads have finished no worse than 4th in passing yards in any of the past 3 seasons. During that timeframe, his teams have also averaged a 7th-place finish in passing scores. This should continue to be a fantasy friendly offense for Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. Those guys are all appropriately priced. The value is likely to be found in TE Hayden Hurst, who is being drafted as TE12 in the 11th round.

Be more skeptical of the running game, though, and not just because of Todd Gurley’s arthritic knees. Over the course of his career, Koetter’s rushing offenses have averaged a finish of 19th in rushing yards and 17th in rushing scores. And it’s been worse recently. Over the past four years, his offenses averaged 28th in rushing yards, never finishing higher than 24th; and averaged 25th in rushing touchdowns, never finishing higher than 23rd. For this reason, Todd Gurley is unlikely to return value at his mid-third round ADP.

Carolina Panthers - Joe Brady

Joe Brady has never called plays at the NFL level. All we have to go on is what he did last season in Baton Rouge for LSU - orchestrate one of the most prolific offenses in the history of college football, help lead the team to a national championship, and guide QB Joe Burrow to a Heisman trophy. His Tigers scored 48 points per game, rushed for 166.8 yards per game, posted 32 rushing touchdowns, threw for 400+ passing yards per game, and added 61 passing scores — primarily against SEC defenses! Even losing 25% of that production at the NFL level would lead to 36 points per game, nearly 125 rushing yards per game, 24 rushing touchdowns, 300 passing yards per game, and 45 passing scores.

Okay, okay… I’ll admit it’s unlikely that he hits those types of marks in the NFL. But my point is, there’s reason to be enthusiastic about Brady’s offense, even baking in a steep decline from last year’s numbers. Now, Christian McCaffrey is a Top-2 pick in just about every league. You don’t need me to tell you to draft him. But Brady’s number do confirm that CMC is a worthy selection at that spot — not just because of last year’s production, but because he should be in a much more explosive offense this year with Brady calling the shots.

This data also suggests that DJ Moore - who broke out in a huge way at the end of last season - should more than justify his early-third-round draft cost. And it implies that Teddy Bridgewater, who currently has an ADP of QB25 and is going in the 15th round - could be a huge value this season. This offense may also yield meaningful returns for ancillary pieces like Robby Anderson (WR52, ADP 13th round), Curtis Samuel (WR55, 13th round), and Ian Thomas (going undrafted at tight end).

New Orleans Saints - Pete Carmichael

Carmichael and Saints head coach Sean Payton have been joined at the hip since Carmichael arrived in N’awlins in 2009. In that time, his offenses have finished amongst the top two in total yardage 7 times (64%), and have never finished worse than 9th (which was last season, when Drew Brees missed several games). His teams have averaged a fifth-place finish in total scores, and never worse than 4th any of the past 4 seasons.

As you might expect, his offenses have been powered by Drew Brees and the passing attack. Only twice has his offense finished worse than 5th in passing yardage, with an average finish of 5th in passing touchdowns. He has had 7 seasons (64%) where his teams finished among the top 2 in the league in passing scores, including last year.

The running game has not be quite as prolific, but is still certainly respectable. His teams average a 16th place finish in rushing yards, and an 11th place finish in rushing touchdowns. The data also suggests that last year’s 20th-place finish in rushing touchdowns was an outlier. From 2014-2018, the team’s average finish in rushing scores was 4th, including two seasons (2017 and 2018) where the Saints posted the most rushing scores in the league. This suggests that Alvin Kamara could be a positive regression candidate in the touchdown department, as could Latavius Murray (RB45, 13th round ADP).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Byron Leftwich

Leftwich, a former first round quarterback out of Marshall in 2003, probably has the most fascinating splits of any coordinator in the NFL. It’s a tale of having talent vs. not having talent. He was the interim offensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals in 2018, and was the offensive coordinator for the Bucs last season. With Arizona (and Josh Rosen) under head coach Steve Wilks in 2018, his offense was dead last in total yards, dead last in scoring, dead last in rushing yards, and dead last in passing yards. He was only marginally better in the touchdown department, finishing 27th in rushing scores and 30th in passing scores.

But once he was reunited with Bruce Arians in Tampa last year, the script flipped: 3rd in yards, 3rd in scoring, 1st in passing yards, 3rd in passing touchdowns. With Tom Brady replacing Jameis WInston, and the addition of Rob Gronkowski, the team should again put up points and yards at will. Aside from Brady, though, none of the key pieces of the passing attack are coming at a discount. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will each cost you a second round pick, so you’re probably buying them at their ceiling. Rob Gronkowski is going as TE6, in the middle of the 6th round, and that’s just too early for me for a guy who hasn’t played a full season since 2011, was out of football last year, and will be splitting work with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate (Howard and Brate might be decent values, though!).

Now, what about the running game? With Arizona it was putrid (32nd in yards and 27th in touchdowns), and although it improved considerably with the Bucs last year, it still was only 24th (just barely above the bottom fourth of the league). The rushing scores were appreciably better, at 15th (top half of the league), but still nothing to write home about. Temper your expectations for rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB32, 8th round ADP). Just because we all have bailed on Ronald Jones doesn’t mean Vaughn is going to come in and be a savior. If he’s splitting carries with Jones, on a team that could be in the bottom quarter of rushing yards and barely in the top half of rushing scores, he’s probably not going to lead you to fantasy glory.

The links for Parts 1-6 in our series on offensive coordinators can be found below:

AFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east

AFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-north

AFC South: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-south

AFC West: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/2/offensive-coordinators-afc-west

NFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/6/offensive-coordinators-nfc-east

NFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/12/offensive-coordinators-nfc-north