Offensive Coordinators: AFC North
This is the second article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how their teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his teams have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens - Greg Roman
Roman has served as offensive coordinators for several NFL teams, including the 49ers from 2011-2014, the Bills in 2015 and 2016, and the Ravens last season. Prior to last year, he was known for great rushing offenses but subpar passing attacks. He has had a top-8 rushing offense every season as an NFL coordinator; and if you exclude his initial year (2011), his offenses have always ranked in the top 4 in rushing yards. That makes Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and perhaps even J.K. Dobbins all worthy selections this season. Roman’s offenses also average out as the 6th-7th best in terms of rushing touchdowns (and they have never finished worse than 2nd in any of his past three seasons as a coordinator), further bolstering the value of the Ravens’ rushers.
Passing is a different story. Before last season, when Lamar Jackson led the league in passing touchdowns, Roman had never had a passing offense finish higher than 16th, and averaged out as only the 22nd best offense in the league through the air. Further, his teams have always been putrid in passing yardage. In six of his seven seasons as a coordinator, his teams have been among the bottom six in passing yards (sure, it’s a bit more arbitrary than “bottom 5,” but it makes the point nonetheless). And that includes last year in Lamar Jackson’s historic season, when the Ravens were only 27th in passing yardage. Although Lamar Jackson is probably a safe pick due to his rushing floor even if his passing TDs decline, I’d certainly be skeptical of guys like Hollywood Brown, Devin Duvernay, and yes, even Mark Andrews. To return value at their ADP, they would need Jackson to prove that last year’s #1 finish in passing TDs wasn’t an outlier, and that Roman’s prior average finish in passing touchdowns (22nd) is just a thing of the past.
Cincinnati Bengals - Brian Callahan
It wasn’t an inspiring first season in Cincinnati for Callahan in his first year as an NFL coordinator. But then again, he didn’t have much to work with, either: no AJ Green, a makeshift line that was down to it’s fourth string offensive tackle (a journeyman former left guard), and several games with the abominable Ryan Finley under center. Given the chaos in Cincinnati last year, maybe it’s remarkable that he was able to finish among the top 20 teams in passing yardage. Things should be better in Cincinnati this year with Jonah Williams and AJ Green healthy, and the drafting of Joe Burrow with the first overall pick. I see last year’s 19th-ranked finish in passing yardage as a floor for this year’s Bengals as long as Burrow and Williams stay healthy. Given all of the weapons in Cincinnati, it seems like a lock that they will improve on last year’s 26th and 28th ranked finishes in rushing and passing touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns - Alex Van Pelt
A report came out on June 27 that head coach Kevin Stefanski has not yet decided whether he or Van Pelt will be calling the plays. Based on Van Pelt’s track record, hopefully it’s Stefanski. Van Pelt only hasn’t had a coordinator gig in a decade. The only experience he has on his resume is as the offensive coordinator for the 2009 Buffalo Bills. That unit was, to put it charitably, pretty terrible. They were 30th overall in yardage, 28th in scoring, 29th in rushing touchdowns, and 30th in passing yardage. Yuck, yuck, yuck. The “positives” are a finish of 16th in rushing yardage (the only area where his offense ranked in the top half of the league - and even then, just barely) and a 23rd-ranked finish in passing touchdowns.
This suggests that Nick Chubb might be ok - although not as good as last year, due both to Van Pelt’s ineptitude and Kareem Hunt’s availability for the entire season - but I’m wary of Baker Mayfield and the rest of the passing game. This analysis changes, though, if Stefanski is the one calling the shots.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Randy Fichtner
Fichtner was at Arkansas State from 1997-2000 and at Memphis from 2001-2006. He did not get the opportunity to call plays at the NFL level until 2018, and has held the offensive coordinator role for the Steelers in each of the past two seasons. His story as an OC is really a tale of how different a team’s offense can look when it loses it’s quarterback and best offensive player. In 2018, he had Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. The team finished 4th in yardage, 6th in scoring, 2nd in passing yards, and 5th in passing touchdowns. In 2019, Antonio Brown was out of the league (for the most part) and Big Ben got hurt early. The results were disastrous. The Steelers were 30th in yardage, 27th in scoring, 31st in passing yards, and 28th in passing touchdowns.
With Roethlisberger returning healthy, there is reason for optimism in 2020. Without Brown - who was the top wideout in the game for several years - it’s unlikely that they will have a top 5 offense, but Roethlisberger is certainly talented enough to have them in the top 10… or at least in the top half of the league, as a worst case scenario.
The running game is where it gets interesting. Even though they had a fantastic offense in 2018, the Steelers still ranked 31st in the league in rushing yardage. Last year, they were only marginally better, at 29th. This suggests to me that you should be wary of drafting James Conner, as he is unlikely to churn out the yardage necessary to vault him into reliable RB2 status. In 2018, he was touchdown-dependent, evidenced by the fact that the Steelers finished in 7th in rushing scores. But in 2019 the Steelers plummeted to 29th. There are enough red flags surrounding Fichtner’s rushing offenses - plus the competition added in the last two drafts in Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland - that I am steering clear of Conner in 2020, and likely won’t wind up with him on many of my fantasy squads.
For our prior analysis on AFC East offensive coordinators, click here: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east