Offensive Coordinators: AFC East
Many fantasy managers often overlook the effect that offensive coordinators have on the production of their favorite football players. But it is a huge factor that should not be ignored. This is the first in a series of articles designed to give you insights into the offensive coordinators in the NFL and what you can expect from players under their command this upcoming season. The background for this article is simple enough. Basically, I researched every offensive coordinator in the NFL and analyzed how his teams have fared in each season as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. An analysis of these data points gives us some insights into what we can expect in 2020. We’ll start with the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills - Brian Daboll
Daboll has 6 years of prior experience as an NFL offensive coordinator: 2009 and 2010 with the Browns; 2011 with the Dolphins; 2012 with the Chiefs; and the past two seasons with the Bills. (He also spent the 2017 season as the offensive coordinator for the Alabama Crimson Tide). In the NFL, his teams have, on average, been between 27th and 28th in offensive yards and touchdowns - i.e., in the bottom five in total offense.
If there is any reason for optimism in a Daboll offense, it is based on rushing. Daboll’s offenses average about 10th in the NFL in rushing yardage, and he’s had only one season as a coordinator where his team ranked worse than 11th. This is good news for guys like Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and rookie Zack Moss, as there should be ample opportunities on the ground. Note, though, that his team’s average rank in rushing yards (10th) lags far behind his teams’ average finish in rushing touchdowns (18th).
With a total yardage average of 27th and a total rushing average of 10th, you would logically assume that the passing numbers haven’t been great. And you would be right. His teams, on average, are about 29th in passing yards (bottom 3) and 28th in passing touchdowns. For these reasons, count me among those who are fading Stefon Diggs in fantasy drafts this year, and are skeptical of a Josh Allen breakout.
Miami Dolphins - Chan Gailey
Gailey has been around a long time, and fortunately, that gives us a larger sample size to use when evaluating his offenses. Since 1989, he has been a head coach or offensive coordinator 14 different seasons: 1989 and 1990 with the Broncos; 1996 and 1997 with the Steelers; 1998 and 1999 with the Cowboys (head coach); 2000 and 2001 with the Dolphins; 2008 with the Kansas City Chiefs; 2010, 2011, and 2012 with the Bills; and 2015 and 2016 with the Jets. (He also spent from 2002-2007 as head coach of Georgia Tech.) Gailey has never had an offense rank in the top 5 in total yards, and he’s never had an offense rank in the bottom 5 in total yards. In other words, while there’s a capped ceiling, there’s also a reasonable floor.
His offenses, as a whole, have been the very definition of “league average,” with an average finish of the 17th-best offense in yardage and the 15th-best offense in scoring. Although that’s not necessarily anything to get excited about, remember we’re talking about the Dolphins here. If the Dolphins finish as the 15th-best scoring offense in the league, then a lot of their players are going to outperform their draft day cost.
This could be particularly true for the running backs, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. Gailey’s offenses have, on average, finished as the 11th-best offense in rushing yards, and the 12th-best in rushing touchdowns. He has had 3 seasons where his squads finished among the top 2 in rushing yards, and 8 seasons where they finished among the top 10 in rushing touchdowns. Given those past performances, Jordan Howard (assuming he wins the starter’s job) could be a sneaky bet as a low-end RB1. In fact, a Gailey rushing offense has never finished worse than 23rd in yardage, meaning Howard’s worst-case scenario is probably a low-end RB2. (He’s getting drafted later than that, by the way.)
In addition, although Gailey’s passing offenses are regularly subpar when it comes to yardage (20th), they’re usually decent in the touchdown department, averaging as the 16th-best. That could make Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa decent QB streamers in the 2020 campaign.
New England Patriots - Josh McDaniels
McDaniels is one of the more fascinating coordinators to analyze because there’s just SO MUCH data on him. He has been a head coach or offensive coordinator in every season since 2006. From 2006-2008, he served as offensive coordinator of the Patriots; from 2009 to 2010 he was head coach of the Broncos; in 2011 he was offensive coordinator for the Rams; and from 2012 to the present he has been the offensive coordinator for the Patriots.
His overall results have been fantastic. He ranks, on average, as the 9th-best offense in yards, the 8th offense in scoring; the 14th offense in rushing yards; the 9th offense in rushing touchdowns; the 9th offense in passing yards; and the 10th offense in passing touchdowns. In short, he’s always a great bet to have his offense finish in the top third of the league.
He’s had a top 5 scoring offense 8 times, including every season from 2012-2018 (in 2019 they were 7th). At various times, his teams have led the league in scoring, led the league in rushing touchdowns, led the league in passing yards, and led the league in passing touchdowns. So what’s not to love?
Well, every season in New England was with Tom Brady, who is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. Brady has bolted for sunny Tampa Bay, leaving McDaniels with some combination of Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. Given the apparent downgrade in quarterback, it may be better to focus on McDaniels’ seasons away from Brady to get a sense of how his offense might fare in 2020.
McDaniels has had four seasons as a coordinator/head coach without Tom Brady. Those include the 2008 season, when Brady missed most of the season due to a torn ACL and New England started Matt Cassel in his place; the 2009 season in Denver, with Kyle Orton; the 2010 season in Denver, with Orton and Tim Tebow; and the 2011 season in St. Louis with Sam Bradford. His offenses in those seasons (2008-2011) finished as follows in total yards: 5th, 15th, 13th, 31st. In total touchdowns, they finished 8th, 20th, 19th, and 32nd. That 2011 season in St. Louis was particularly brutal. The point is, the wheels CAN fall off - although when they did, McDaniels was away from Belichick. In New England, even with Matt Cassel, he finished 5th in total yards and 8th in total touchdowns (albeit with a really nice supporting piece in Randy Moss). With Jarrett Stidham, we really don’t know what to expect, but even if he can give Kyle Orton-esque production, you’re still looking at an average offense. The ADP of guys in the Patriots’ offense right now suggests that people aren’t expecting anything close to that type of return.
One other area of note with respect to the Patriots’ offense under McDaniels: they’ve never finished outside of the top 12 in rushing scores, and only twice finished outside the top 10. With the Patriots regularly scoring on the ground, this could be a great year to scoop up Sony MIchel or Damien Harris with later picks and hope that they can give you RB2 value.
New York Jets - Dowell Loggains
Warning! Warning! Warning! In the last three years, Loggains has been the offensive coordinator for the 2017 Bears, the 2018 Dolphins, and the 2019 Jets. Every single one of those teams has been a bottom-three offense in total yards. At a certain point, it’s not the talent, it’s the coach. Loggains has also been the coordinator for the 2013 Titans and the 2016 Bears. He’s never had a team finish higher than 15th in offensive yards. He’s never had a team finish better than 19th in offensive touchdowns; and 80% of his seasons have seen his team finish in the bottom 7 of scoring offenses.
It’s not like people are rushing out to grab any Jets right now anyway, but I’m fading them all. The only potential reason for optimism is that, aside from last season, he’s consistently had a rushing yardage ranking in the middle of the pack, finishing between 14th and 18th. Le’Veon Bell could return RB2 value, but don’t reach on him. As far as the passing game, be cautious. His offenses have ranked 25th on average in passing yards, and 24th on average in passing touchdowns. For Sam Darnold to break out, he’s going to have to be an outlier from Loggains’ past seasons.