The Breakout Running Backs for 2020
In fantasy football, we’re always looking to gain an edge on our competition. One way to do that is by identifying talent before players break out, as the cost to acquire those players is typically minimal, but the production can drive the success of your fantasy squad. One area where every fantasy manager can use more quality depth is at the running back position. So where can we find breakout running backs this year after the first five or six rounds?
Fantasy analyst J.J. Zachariason (follow him if you’re not already doing so) has a great article on Numberfire right now explaining how to find breakout running backs. If you’re too lazy to Google it, the article is here: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/32021/how-to-find-breakout-running-backs-in-fantasy-football. Basically, a breakout running back is defined as a player who exceeds his projections by 150 or more points. Historically, running backs who “break the mold” in that way have the following characteristics:
They are not handcuffs (meaning that they do not have a RB teammate being taken in the top 24 players, or first two rounds of ADP).
They are not being drafted as the top running back on their own team, and are going after pick 60.
They are pass-catchers.
Zacharison’s article on this subject is great, and should be read in its entirety (it also mentions that such players are of all ages, which is implicit in our analysis here). But his article stops short of actually identifying those players who could be potential breakouts this year. So I’ve done the heavy lifting for you. Ordered alphabetically by last name, here are six players who have the potential to “break out” for your fantasy squad in 2020, delivering a larger-than-expected return on your investment:
Tarik Cohen, Bears (100.4 ADP on ESPN as of June 16)). Cohen is going about 30 picks after teammate David Montgomery, whom I also like in his own right as a potential sleeper this year. A good season from Cohen wouldn’t exactly be a surprise, but it’s shocking to me that he’s lasting until the middle of Round 9. This is a guy who has had 8 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons and 70+ receptions in each of those seasons. With very few reliable pass-catching options outside of Allen Robinson (and maybe Anthony Miller?) in the Windy City, Cohen looks primed for a big year.
Tevin Coleman, 49ers (154.9). He’s going nearly 100 picks after teammate Raheem Mostert (57.5). Mostert had only 14 receptions last year; Coleman has averaged almost twice that over the past four years. Mostert only had one-100 yard game last year during the regular season, the same number as Coleman. Mostert had only one game with more than 15 rush attempts; Coleman had three. It’s baffling to me that there is a 100-pick difference between these guys, as they’re pretty much the same player statistically, but with Coleman offering more receiving upside. The fact that he plays in a good offense is yet another reason to like him.
Antonio Gibson, Redskins (164.1). Gibson is an enigma. He doesn’t have a lengthy body of work at running back, but the former wide receiver was clearly drafted for a pass-catching role in Washington. There aren’t a whole lot of established pass-catching options on the depth chart outside of Terry McLaurin, so somebody is bound to emerge from this offense. Derrius Guice (110.4) figures to get lead back duties, but Gibson should get plenty of work, especially since Washington is likely to be playing from behind quite often.
Duke Johnson, Texans (160.6). Broken-down lead back David Johnson is being selected, on average, at pick 38. That’s a pretty steep price tag for a guy who has had only one outstanding season in his career, is switching teams, and looked completely out of gas last season. Enter The Duke. He has had 40+ receptions every year of his career (with a high of 74), so clearly he has pass-catching chops. He also has low tread on his tires, as he hasn’t had more than 100 carries in a season since his rookie year. He may be walking into a great opportunity in an explosive offense if David Johnson just doesn’t have “it” anymore. Duke is basically free at this price point, so he’s a worthy final-round selection in your draft.
Zack Moss, Bills (149.2). It remains to be seen what Moss’ workload will be in the NFL, but you’d have to assume that, at minimum, he’s going to be given some goal line work to reduce the wear and tear on Josh Allen, who has had at least 8 rushing scores in each of his first two seasons. Moss seems to be a mix of Marion Barber and Kareem Hunt, and that could lead to fantasy production. He has the same third-round-pick draft capital invested in him as presumptive starter Devin Singletary (ADP 58.5), but comes at a fraction of the cost. He also had modest pass-catching production in college (29 receptions as a sophomore and 28 as a senior), so the Bills can certainly involve him in the pass game.
Damien Williams, Chiefs (132.4). I get that we all like the shiny new toy, but it’s insane that Clyde Edwards-Helaire (33.0) is going 100 picks ahead of him. It’s not like Damien Williams is going to be completely phased out of this offense. In fact, in the early part of the season, it’s highly likely that Williams is the one carrying the load. Even though Williams didn’t get regular playing time until 2018, he still was able to contribute plenty in the passing game: the dude has at least one receiving touchdown in each of his six years in the NFL. Ignore him at your own peril. He may, yet again, be the starting tailback for the best offense in the league.
Just missed the cut: I thought about adding Ke’Shawn Vaughn to this list, but I’m concerned he might surpass Ronald Jones in ADP by the time drafts roll around. Another name considered was Darrell Henderson, as he is ticketed for the pass-catching RB role in L.A., but his ADP (around 100) is higher than I’m comfortable with, given the ADPs of the other guys on this list.