Tight End Rankings - 2020
As noted in the Quarterback rankings article, I’ve finally caved. I prefer grouping players into categorical tiers, rather than ranking them, but the people want what they want - and what they want are rankings. So rankings they shall get. Below is my tight end rankings for 2020, based on what we know in the COVID19 world of May 2020. These rankings can, and likely will, change by the time drafts roll around in August based on new information. The rankings are based on a standard-scoring 12-team league.
Tight Ends
George Kittle, 49ers. According to Airyards.com, no tight end had a higher share of his team’s targets than George Kittle, with 28%. In fact, Kittle had a 4% higher target share than the next-highest tight ends (Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz). He was fourth among all tight ends in receptions (85), but he missed two games, and he was one of only three tight ends to surpass the 1,000 yard threshold. With only 5 touchdowns, he likely under-produced in the touchdown department, so I am expecting some positive regression to the mean there. While I realize that San Francisco spent a first round pick on Brandon Aiyuk, I view that as a positive for Kittle, as he should have less defensive attention moving forward. The arrow continues to point up for the 26-year-old, and he’s a fine selection at the 2-3 turn in drafts.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs. Kelce continued to dominate in 2019, but he turns 31 this season and sooner or later father time is going to catch up with him. I absolutely abhor his first-round draft price right now, and definitely would not jump in at that cost. But even with him bound to decline in the near future, he’s still a reliable TE1 playing with (arguably) the best quarterback in the game in Patrick Mahomes. Even a slight step back from last year’s 97-1,229-5 will still have him among the top tight ends in fantasy. I have him below Kittle solely due to age.
Darren Waller, Raiders. Wow, this came out of nowhere. The former wide receiver and recovering addict exploded onto the scene in 2019, finishing second among all tight ends in receiving yards and receptions (1,145 and 90, respectively), and putting up a whopping five 100-yard games. His three touchdowns left a little to be desired, though. He has more competition for targets this year with the Raiders spending early draft picks on skill players Henry Ruggs III, Bryan Edwards, and Lynn Bowden, so his catch totals might drop a bit, but I would also expect his performance to increase in the touchdown department.
Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers. Okay, I’ll take the bait. Gronkowski wasn’t so hot the last time we saw him on a field in 2018, and he has dealt with injuries for the majority of his career. But after a year off to let his body heal and back for one last ride with Tom Brady, I’m intrigued. He may not have to play a full complement of snaps, as the Bucs also have OJ Howard and Cam Brate to carry the load, and he may be used solely in the red zone. Defenses should not be able to focus on him as they worry about stopping Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. All in all, I’m not expecting the yardage to be there, but he could flirt with double-digit touchdowns.
Mark Andrews, Ravens. Exercise caution here. OutstAndrews paced the position with 10 touchdowns last season during Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign, but touchdowns can be fluky. I would be surprised to see him lead the position again in that category unless he improves on last season’s 64 receptions. Also, it would not be surprising to see more of those touchdowns go to sophomore receivers Hollywood Brown and Miles Boykin. Andrews is still a fine selection as your first tight end - just don’t expect a repeat of last year’s gaudy touchdown numbers.
Zach Ertz, Eagles. Confession time? I’ve long been a Zach Ertz doubter. Here’s what I wrote about him last season in my column on Overrated Players in 2019 Drafts:
“From 2015-2017, Ertz had 75, 78, and 74 catches. In 2018, he had 116 catches. What is more likely to happen? …. From 2015-2017, Ertz had 853, 816, and 824 receiving yards. In 2018, he had 1163 yards. What is more likely to happen? As a dear friend has said many times, you are what it says on the back of your football card. Ertz’s football card says that in most seasons, he’s a 75 catch guy with 800-850 yards receiving. Those are nice stats, sure, but not early-third-round-pick stats.”
Flash forward to the end of the 2019 season: Ertz had 88 catches and 916 yards. I can’t say I nailed it, but I was pretty darn close in predicting regression from his 2018 line of 1,163 yards on 116 catches. With Dallas Goedert becoming even more involved in the offense, Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson coming back healthy, and first round pick Jalen Reagor entering the fold, 2019’s stat line is likely Ertz’s celing. And for what it’s worth, he turns 30 during the season.Hunter Henry, Chargers. Sooner or later, this dude has to deliver on his promise, right? He’s never played a full season, but if there were ever a time for him to deliver, this is it. He is playing on the franchise tag, and will likely be spending the majority of his games catching passes from rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. Has there ever been a rookie QB who didn’t love to target his safety blankets? There could be a big PPR season in store for Henry.
Evan Engram, Giants. I’ve long been a fan of Evan Engram, but the dude just can’t stay healthy. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense as well, from PPR machine Golden Tate to slot guru Sterling Shepard to rookie revelation Darius Slayton to franchise cornerstone Saquon Barkley. Still, Engram and Slayton are the only ones who offer any sort of red zone presence, so he could be a sneaky bet for touchdowns if he can stay on the field.
T.J. Hockenson, Lions. You either believe or you do not. I believe. There’s a reason the Lions drafted him in the Top 10 of the NFL draft last year, and it isn’t because he’s a stellar blocker (although he is). “Baby Gronk” is primed to take off in Year 2 with the return of a healthy Matt Stafford and a rejuvenated running game. There is always a steep learning curve for tight ends in Year 1 - in addition to adjusting to the speed of the game, they basically have to learn all the responsibilities of an offensive lineman AND a wide receiver - so the sophomore season is typically when they can finally make an impact. Note that in his final game of 2019, he was targeted 11 times, which shows you that the Lions think he can be a meaningful part of their passing game.
Tyler Higbee, Rams. The secret’s out with Higbee. In December, he tore up the league, racking up 11 or more targets in each of his final 4 games and ending the season with 100+ yards in four of his final five. The Rams would be crazy not to continue to feature this guy moving forward, especially after moving on from Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley in the offseason.
Jared Cook, Saints. No one gets excited when they draft Jared Cook. No one. But he is a top-3 target in one of the league’s best passing attacks. Look, I think Michael Thomas is great and all, but no one thinks he’s going to repeat his historic 2019 season (or that gaudy 32% target share). For his part, Cook had a respectable line, posting 700 yards and 9 scores. For most tight ends, I’d say that type of touchdown production isn’t sustainable, but playing in a Sean Payton-Drew Brees (and maybe Jameis Winston?) offense, I could certainly envision similar output this year.
Austin Hooper, Browns. The only reason he’s this low is because I am inherently skeptical of players who have switched teams in the offseason. You never know how they’re going to “gel” with their new teammates, and whether they are a good scheme fit for their new squad. Hooper’s 2019 was certainly useful, though, as he put up a career season with 75 catches for 787 yards and 6 touchdowns. But has he reached his ceiling?
Jace Sternberger, Packers. Maybe we’ve arrived at the “reach” portion of the article, but I’m really enthused by Sternberger. The Packers drafted him in Round 3 last year, they cut Jimmy Graham, and they didn’t add any wide receivers in the draft. Sure, they added Devin Funchess in free agency, but my gut tells me that Sternberger - who had 800+ yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in his final season in college - is going to be the #2 option in the passing game behind Davante Adams. Sign me up.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins. What, you believe in a repeat from DeVante Parker? Or a sophomore breakout from an UDFA in Preston WIlliams who is returning from an ACL tear? Or perhaps you’re intrigued by the inevitable 2 big games that Albert Wilson will have? For me, I’ll put all my Dolphin bets on Gesicki. After getting off to a slow start in 2019, he finished strong, with 5 touchdowns in his final 6 games. Also, the same logic applies to him as Henry: with a rookie quarterback under center, he’s sure to get a decent number of looks.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles. At times last season, Goedert and Ertz were the only offense the Eagles had. His role continues to grow, and it’s only a matter of time before he makes Ertz obsolete. That may not be this season; but then again, it just may be. Until then, he has standalone value as a tight end streamer depending on the matchup.
Noah Fant, Broncos. He’s certainly got draft pedigree working in his favor - as well as great speed for a tight end - but I’ve always felt that Noah Fant was more of a gym shorts athlete than football player. His talent can’t be denied, but will in turn into production on the field? I suppose the same argument made in favor of his former TJ Hockenson could be made for him as well: he’s a former first round pick and is expected to greatly improve in his second year. But we don’t know for sure whether Drew Lock is the real deal, and we don’t know how much of a target share he will get with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler now in the fold.
Hayden Hurst, Falcons. First of all, Hurst is old for a third year player. Dude will already be 27 by the time the season gets underway. It’s now or never for him. He wasn’t able to produce in a fantastic Ravens offense last year, but maybe he just needed a change of scenery. There is ample opportunity in Atlanta, as there are very few receiving threats outside of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. He could walk into 6 touchdowns if he just stays on the field, as this offense projects as one of the league’s best yet again.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings. Kyle Rudolph has disappointed just about every fantasy manager who has ever owned him - his talent has always suggested that his production should be greater - but the Vikings are running out of options. They’ve still got Adam Thielen, sure. But they traded away Stefon Diggs, and I’m not convinced Justin Jefferson is ready to replace him in Year One. Rudolph should have decent appeal as a streamer throughout the 2020 season - just like most years.
Eric Ebron, Steelers. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Two years removed from a 13-touchdown campaign, Ebron is now an afterthought, and may be splitting reps with incumbent starter Vance McDonald. Ben Roethlisberger has shown a penchant for targeting the tight end over his career, though (remember Heath Miller?) so Ebron may be able to recapture some magic in the Steel City.
Greg Olsen, Seahawks. Feels weird to see that in print. Greg Olsen, a Seahawk? There is decent opportunity in this offense as well, with no proven threats outside of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Olsen should provide the reliable tight end target that Russell Wilson has lacked since Jimmy Graham left town.
Jack Doyle, Colts. “Dad Runner” Doyle had some buzz a few years ago, but then became an afterthought following teammate Eric Ebron’s touchdown explosion in 2018. Ebron is now gone to the Steelers, and Doyle doesn’t have much competition for snaps. The popgun-armed Philip Rivers is now under center for Indianapolis, and the team projects to have more of a dink-and-dunk offense than it did in years past. That should benefit guys who run routes close to the line of scrimmage, such as Doyle and Nyheim Hines.
Chris Herndon, Jets. Herndon was projected as a sleeper last year, but his season was derailed due to various injuries. He’s back healthy this year, and there should be opportunity in the Jets’ offense. The projected starters are former first round bust Breshad Perriman and second rounder Denzel Mims on the outside, Jamison Crowder in the slot, Le’Veon Bell out of the backfield, and Herndon at tight end. The point is, none of those guys is an alpha dog that will command 25% or more of the targets, so there should be ample opportunity for Herndon to “get his” this season.
Cole Kmet, Bears. I generally eschew rostering rookie tight ends, but we’ve reached the point in the rankings where he’s worth a gamble. I’m a Notre Dame fan, so I am very familiar with Kmet’s game; there were times last season (especially early in the year) when he was the entire offense for the Irish. If you watch his tape and look at his measurables, he projects as a bigger, faster Kyle Rudolph. Or, for an older comp., there are shades of Jason Witten to his game. He’s going to be a really good player, but it may have to wait until Year 2 as he adjusts to the NFL game.
OJ Howard, Buccaneers. Howard oozes with talent, but he just couldn’t put it all together last season. Is that on him, or is it just because Bruce Arians’ offenses don’t feature the tight end? We’ll learn in 2020. Tom Brady has a history of using his tight ends (hello, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez!) and has made a career of just finding the open man. If Howard gets open, Brady will throw the ball to him. It’s that simple. He should get considerable opportunity between the 20s, as I think the Bucs will try to keep Gronkowski fresh by using him only in the red zone and on key third downs.
Irv Smith Jr., Vikings. The Vikings’ passing offense is a gigantic question mark heading into the 2020 season. Gone is star wideout Stefon Diggs and his 1,100 receiving yards. The only reliable returning pass-catchers are 30-year-olds Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. The team added LSU star Justin Jefferson in the first round of the draft, but it’s always a toss-up whether a team can count on meaningful production from a rookie wideout. Enter Irv Smith, who was selected with the 50th pick in the 2019 draft. Given the state of the depth chart, it appears as though Minnesota will be running a good deal of “12” personnel this season, which should earn Smith plenty of looks lined up out wide.
Ian Thomas, Panthers. Thomas isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he’s projected to start at tight end in what is expected to be a wide-open offense under new coach Matt Rhule. Smart money says that DJ Moore and CMC should dominate targets, with Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel flashing complementary speed, but there could be some opportunities for Thomas in the red zone. The real question is how many fantasy-relevant players that prototypical “game manager” Teddy Bridgewater can support.
CJ Uzomah, Bengals. He’s listed on here solely because he’s projected as the starting tight end in what should be an exciting offense. Don’t be surprised if he loses his job to 2019 second rounder Drew Sample, though.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers. I include him only because I think there’s a decent chance he (or Howard) gets traded prior to the start of the season, as it’s a really crowded tight end room in Tampa. He would be a great fit for the Cowboys, who have a huge hole on the depth chart.
Jimmy Graham, Bears. This guy is still in the league? Really? He has been an afterthought since he left New Orleans, which was three teams ago. If he can’t produce with Aaron Rodgers (5 TDs in two seasons in Green Bay), I have my doubts that he’s going to resurrect his career with Mitch Trubisky. He’s listed on the rankings only because he’s produced in the past, so we can’t completely discount him, but the strong likelihood is that he’s not a fantasy asset this year.
Tyler Eifert, Jaguars. When he’s fully healthy, Eifert is a tremendous weapon. But alas, he’s earned the “Mr. Glass” label, having played in a full season only once in his seven-year career. The positive news is that the one instance of him playing a full season occurred last year. His 13-TD campaign of 2015 appears to be the outlier, though. Including that season, he has only two seasons in his career with more than three touchdowns. At this point in his career, he is nothing more than a low-upside tight end streamer who carries significant injury risk.