Quarterback Rankings - 2020
I’ve finally caved. Although I generally do not like the idea of linear rankings, and instead prefer grouping players into categories by player type, the feedback I have received from readers is that they want rankings. So rankings you shall get. Unlike most sites, though, that do their rankings in a list form, with nothing more, I thought I’d provide a little more “oomph” by explaining my rationale on each player. In doing so, hopefully I can provide context for you to make your own decision on whether you agree or disagree with my rank. These rankings are being written in May of 2020 - in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and at a time when training camps and preseason are still an unknown - so these rankings could (and very likely will) change based upon new information that comes out as we get closer to the season. These rankings are based upon a standard-scoring 12 team league.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Surprising no one. Jackson is a threat both as a passer and as a runner, and should have an improved supporting cast with both Hollywood Brown and Miles Boykin entering year two and the Ravens bringing in J.K. Dobbins and Devin Duvernay in the draft. I would caution folks against drafting him in the second or third rounds, though, which is where he is presently being drafted on several mock draft sites. The opportunity cost is too great when you pass up wide receivers and running backs in those rounds (see previous HMF articles on the Alternate RB Theory). The advantage to be gained by rostering Jackson last year was that you were able to get him as a late-round selection, and were still able to use early round-selections on premium positions at running back and wide receiver.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. Frankly, Mahomes is probably safer than Jackson, as he carries less injury risk. Jackson’s playing style (re: frequent runs) leave him exposed to more big hits than Mahomes. Mahomes is far and away the better pure passer, and arguably has better weapons around him. Of all of the quarterbacks, he’s probably the safest bet to end the season in the Top 5 at his position.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys. Like most of the top 5 quarterbacks on this list, Prescott adds something to the equation with his rushing ability, which gives him a more stable weekly floor. He had six rushing touchdowns in each of his first three years in the league, and still had three rushing scores last season. In addition, last year was his most prolific season as a passer, besting his previous career highs by more than 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns. With the addition of CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the NFL Draft to pair with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott has the opportunity to improve on last season’s 4,900 yards and 30 TDs through the air.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks. Wilson offers a similar profile to Prescott but is five years older, plays behind a worse offensive line, and doesn’t have quite the weapons. His pass-catching options ARE respectable, though, as DK Metcalf may improve on his impressive 900-yard, 7 TD rookie campaign, Greg Olsen may have a little something left in the tank, and Tyler Lockett is always a threat to take it the distance. Wilson averages almost 500 yards rushing per season, but only 2 rushing scores.
Deshaun Watson, Texans. Watson, Wilson, and Prescott are all fairly similar, and I couldn’t fault anyone who had their personal rankings in the reverse order. Watson averages about 400 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns per year, so he offers a similar floor to Prescott and Wilson. I do have greater concerns about Watson than the other two, though, because his situation has changed the most dramatically. He lost arguably the best wide receiver in the league this offseason (DeAndre Hopkins), and the team replaced him with the oft-concussed, thrice-traded Brandin Cooks. The team has loaded up on deep threats in Cooks, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills, but I’m not quite sure who is supposed to be the chains-mover on the team. Randall Cobb? David Johnson? The offense has more question marks than it had last season, which is why I have him lower than Prescott and Wilson.
Matt Ryan, Falcons. This is the first player on the list who really offers nothing at all with his legs. But Matty Ice has a tremendous supporting cast. Other than the fullback (or third wide receiver), every single starter on the Falcons offense is a former first round pick: Ryan (2008), WR Julio Jones (2011), WR Calvin Ridley (2018), RB Todd Gurley (2015, by Rams), TE Hayden Hurst (2018, by Ravens), LT Jake Matthews (2014), LG James Carpenter (2011, by Seahawks), C Alex Mack (2009, by Browns), RG Chris Lindstrom (2019), and RT Kaleb McGary (2019). This team is positioned to be prolific on offense. Over the past nine years, Ryan has averaged over 4,500 yards passing and 28 touchdowns. For perspective, only two quarterbacks reached those combined totals last year (Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott).
Kyler Murray, Cardinals. Here’s where we are banking on growth in Year 2. Murray was the number one overall pick in 2019 and had a promising rookie season where he played all 16 games and produced 3,700 yards passing, 20 touchdowns, 540 yards rushing, and 4 touchdowns. And then in the offseason, the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins and drafted Houston LT Josh Jones to protect Murray’s blind side (which should allow DJ Humphries to move back to his more natural right tackle position).
Jared Goff, Rams. Most analysts don’t have Goff anywhere close to this high, and I think that’s an overreaction to poor touchdown totals in 2019. Touchdowns are fluky, and Goff’s other 2019 numbers were impressive. He was third in the league in passing yards, behind only Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott. I think Todd Gurley was part of the problem, and that Goff’s passing numbers will benefit from the addition of 2nd-round pick Cam Akers. Fellow second round pick Van Jefferson should also help offset the loss of WR Brandin Cooks. All in all, Goff’s 22 touchdown passes in 2019 give us a good idea of his floor, and his 32 touchdown passes from 2018 give us a good idea of his ceiling. I’m calling my shot with this rank: his 2020 will be more comparable to 2018 than 2019.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers has gotta be furious about the Packers selection of QB Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He’s on notice that he needs to produce - or else. In a loaded receiver draft, the Packers did nothing to make Rodgers’ life any easier, but they did bring in Devin Funchess to compete for the number 2 receiver role. This is probably an ideal fit, because for too long in Carolina Funchess was pegged as a number one, and that just doesn’t fit his skill set. Funchess can nicely complement Davante Adams with Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Allen Lazard handling duties from the slot. The Packers had a disproportionate number of touchdowns scored on the ground last year (sorry, Aaron Jones truthers) and I would anticipate regression this year toward more passing TDs. That, in turn, will benefit Rodgers’ bottom line.
Drew Brees, Saints. Old reliable. Despite playing in only 11 games (and really only 10, because he got hurt in the first half of the Week 2 game), Brees still wound up among the top 5 at the position in touchdown passes. His supporting cast hasn’t really changed - aside from a first round pick spent on iOL Cesar Ruiz - so things are shaping up for another stellar season for Brees in the Big Easy.
Josh Allen, Bills. Allen is another player who gives a relatively stable floor with his rushing, but hasn’t yet shown the high-upside ceiling due to his deficiencies as a passer. He has rushed for at least 500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of his first two years in the league, but in 2019 he barely threw for 3,000 yards (23rd in the league) and 20 touchdowns (21st). If you invest in Allen as your quarterback, you are either banking on the rushing touchdowns to continue, or you believe he’ll take a step forward as a passer with the addition of WRs Stefon Diggs (trade) and Gabriel Davis (draft).
Matthew Stafford, Lions. Always one of the more underappreciated passers in the league, the former #1 overall pick is now fully healthy and has great weapons at his disposal: “Babytron” Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, former first round pick TJ Hockenson, and a running game consisting of Kerryon Johnson and this year’s second round pick, D’Andre Swift. Swift probably brings an element to the pass game that Johnson does not, which should benefit Stafford. It would not be surprising to see Stafford put together a top 5-7 fantasy season if everything clicks.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans. One of the biggest surprises of the 2019 season, Tannehill seems like a prime regression candidate. But what if he isn’t? With all due respect to the aging Delanie Walker and Dion Lewis, the only major loss the Titans suffered on offense was the defection of Jack Conklin - whom they promptly replaced with first rounder Isaiah Wilson. This offense may not skip a beat, and Tannehill will be the primary beneficiary. Despite playing meaningful snaps in only 11 games in 2019, Tannehill tossed 22 touchdown passes and added another 4 rushing scores. Projected over a full season - and there’s always a danger in making such projections - he’s looking at around 32 touchdown passes and 6 rushing scores, which would easily make him one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy.
Joe Burrow, Bengals. Some might say this is too early for a rookie quarterback. To them I say… live a little. Burrow gives the same rushing upside as many of the other quarterbacks previously mentioned, and could end up having a season similar to Kyler Murray’s rookie campaign. He rushed for over 350 yards and 5 touchdowns his final season in college (and nearly 400 and 7 the year before that), so it’s clear the guy can move a little. Combine that with his passing ceiling, and he could certainly be a useful fantasy asset in 2020 - particularly in the latter half of the season as he grows more comfortable with the speed of the NFL game. He certainly has a bevy of useful weapons in AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross, and Joe Mixon.
Philip Rivers, Colts. Rivers never gets anyone excited, but he seemingly always finishes as a QB1. He offers nothing at all with his legs, and he doesn’t go deep all that often, but he somehow piles up the stats. In 2019, he was among the top 5 players in passing yards, and now he joins old friend Frank Reich in Indianapolis. Reich served as Rivers’ quarterbacks coach in 2013, and his offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. During those years, Rivers averaged over 30 touchdowns per season. He steps into a good situation with Indianapolis with a solid offensive line, a young, improving defense, an an offense highlighted by TY Hilton, second-round picks Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor, and returning 1,000-yard rusher Marlon Mack. Would anyone really be surprised if he ends the season as a QB1 yet again?
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Ben has become an afterthought following an injury-shortened 2019, but let’s not forget that the guy led the league in passing in 2018. Sure, his supporting cast has changed, as Antonio Brown is no longer in town. But it’s not like the cupboard is bare. Returning is slot maven Juju Smith-Schuster, last year’s third rounder Diontae Johnson, deep threat James Washington, and Vance McDonald. New to the fold are second rounder Chase Claypool, a wide receiver who has the ability to win at all levels of the field, and Eric Ebron, who posted 13 touchdowns two seasons ago. Roethlisberger, like Rivers, is another cheap option who has a reasonable chance of finishing the season as a QB1.
Carson Wentz, Eagles. Just what is Carson Wentz? In 2016 he was the second pick in the draft. In 2017 he was an MVP candidate until he tore up his knee. In 2018 he struggled through injuries. In 2019, his receivers did. Just who is he? What can we expect? The Eagles are banking on a return to 2017 form, bringing in Marquise Goodwin via trade and drafting TCU’s Jalen Reagor in the first round of the draft to complement returning stars Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz. They’ve hedged their bets, though, by selecting Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts in Round 2 of the draft. Wentz certainly has the talent to succeed, but this could be a make-or-break year for him in the city of brotherly love.
Daniel Jones, Giants. Jones is a turnover machine. In his rookie campaign, he had 12 picks and 12 fumbles. He’s really got to clean that up to have a meaningful fantasy impact. He’s otherwise positioned to succeed. He has arguably the best running back in the league (Saquon Barkley), as well as a cadre of pass-catchers that includes Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Darius Slayton (who had 8 TDs as a rookie!). The Giants used their first and third round picks to improve the offensive line (selecting Andrew Thomas and Matt Peart, respectively), so Jones has no excuses if he doesn’t perform this season.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers. While the media is ga-ga over Tom Brady to the Bucs, I am not quite as enthused. Yes, Tom Brady is the GOAT. He’ll also be 43 years old when this season begins and has been in decline for several years. While I acknowledge that he has great pass-catchers at his disposal in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski, I’m really concerned by the fact that his completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdowns have declined each of the past two seasons. At some point, the wheels are going to fall off the TB12 Express. Why wouldn’t it be the season where he finally leaves Belichick’s side?
Baker Mayfield, Browns. Mayfield was a favorite of the analytics community coming out of college, and then he produced one of the best rookie seasons the league had ever seen from a quarterback. In his sophomore campaign, everything fell apart. Did the league figure Baker out, or was it something else? My money is on the latter. He lacked a legitimate left tackle the entire season, and Odell Beckham played hurt. This year, Beckham is fully healthy, and the Browns used their first round pick on Alabama offensive tackle Jedrick Wills. Although Wills’ transition from right tackle to left could cause some hiccups, ultimately the Browns’ offensive line woes should be solved. If Baker - who was being drafted as a top ten quarterback this time last season - can deliver on the promise he showed as a rookie, this could be a steal of a pick. In addition to Beckham, Jarvis Landry is returning, and the team signed Austin Hooper in the offseason to fill their hole at tight end. They also signed Jack Conklin from the Titans to stabilize the right side of their offensive line. What’s not to like?
Drew Lock, Broncos. Lock is one of those guys who needs the protection to be perfect to be successful. He gets happy feet when there is pressure. If the protection can hold up, he has a tremendous group of pass-catchers at his disposal: 2018 2nd rounder Courtland Sutton, 2019 1st rounder Noah Fant, 2020 1st rounder Jerry Jeudy, and 2020 2nd rounder KJ Hamler (not to mention 2015 1st rounder Melvin Gordon out of the backfield). I have Mayfield higher because of the draft capital associated with him, but Lock is in an equally good situation.
Sam Darnold, Jets. Darnold also has high draft capital to his name - in fact, many thought he’d go #1 overall to the Browns the year they took Baker - but he comes in below Baker and Lock in these rankings because his supporting cast is not as good as theirs. Jets GM Joe Douglas did him a huge favor drafting Louisville LT Mekhi Becton with Gang Green’s first round pick, as Darnold should now have a legitimate blindside protector for the first time in his career. But Douglas let WR Robby Anderson walk in free agency, and replaced him with first round bust Breshad Perriman. Perriman offers some deep speed, but not much else. The team is banking on rookie 2nd round pick Denzel Mims to help carry the load at receiver along with slot man Jamison Crowder. It is possible that the Jets could have a functional offense with those pieces and RB Le’Veon Bell, but it would be surprising if they were among the top half of the league in points scored - especially with Adam Gase at the helm.
Teddy Bridgewater, Panthers. Bridgewater has always been more of a game manager than a guy who can win games for you, but I’m a big believer in DJ Moore, and if Moore is going to produce, it’s going to be with this guy throwing him the ball. Carolina has a reliable bevy of pass-catchers in Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey, so it’s possible Bridgewater could have a good season just based on the run-after-the-catch ability of these guys. I think we’re going to see a college-style spread offense, but with a bunch of catches at or near the line of scrimmage.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings. Many people would put Cousins a lot higher than this because of his reliability, but I just can’t get behind a run-first offense with a chief passing threat of Adam Thielen. Thielen is a really good player, but he’s always been at his best in the slot, and that spot seems reserved for first round pick Justin Jefferson. I’m fairly down on Thielen this year, and the entire Vikings passing offense as a whole.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers. I don’t like Jimmy Garoppolo. At all. The only reason he’s this high is because he has one of the most creative minds in the game drawing up passing plays for him. The 49ers have done a great job surrounding Garoppolo with talent - George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and now Brandon Aiyuk - and he needs to make the most of it. They just traded picks for Trent Williams to replace the retiring Joe Staley, so the pass protection should continue to be solid. Garoppolo needs to go out there and finally have a QB1 season. But I doubt it.
Gardner Minshew, Jaguars. I’m all aboard Minshew mania, but am tempering expectations because the dude WAS a sixth-round pick. Yes, they have DJ Chark, drafted Laviska Shenault, and signed Tyler Eifert - but this is a rebuilding Jaguars team. Let’s keep expectations in check.
Derek Carr, Raiders. He’s only this high because he’s nominally the starter. I think before the end of the year, he loses his job to Marcus Mariota. Jon Gruden has made a career out of reclamation projects at quarterback (Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson). You know he’s salivating at the idea of working with the #2 overall player selected in the 2015 NFL draft. He knows from his past two years’ of experience that the Raiders are never going to win anything with Derek Carr.
Justin Herbert, Chargers. If there is any training camp or preseason, I say Herbert wrests the starting job from Tyrod Taylor and is under center for Week 1. If not, it’s probably going to be the Taylor show for the first part of the season. There are excellent pass catching weapons for Herbert in LA, including safety valve options of RB Austin Ekeler (who had nearly 1,000 yards receiving last year) and TE Hunter Henry. The starting WR options of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are pretty solid as well. The key question, really, will be whether the protection can hold up. I was really surprised they didn’t address left tackle early in the draft.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins. Like Herbert, I think Tua will be the starter sooner rather than later, but I’m fading him due to his injury concerns. I read a stat that he was only hit like 77 times in college, and yet suffered 3 injuries. Historically, quarterbacks who have injury issues in college have injury issues in the NFL. I’m going to need Tua to prove to me that he can stay healthy before I invest heavily in him. Plus, the Dolphins skill players aside from DeVante Parker (and MAYBE Mike Gesicki if he can continue to improve) scare no one.
Dwayne Haskins, Redskins. Woof. No left tackle, no receiving threats aside from Terry McLaurin, no thank you. It’s likely to be an ugly year in D.C.
Mitch Trubisky, Bears. Trubisky is this low because I think he’s a terrible player. He’s really not shown anything in his three year NFL career to make anyone believe he is the long-term answer for the Bears at quarterback. Usually, I give a quarterback 32 starts (essentially two full seasons) before passing judgment on whether the guy is any good. We’ve passed that mark with Trubisky. He’s really more of a high-end backup than quality starter. I suspect he may lose his job to Nick Foles at some point this season - if not in training camp.
Jarrett Stidham, Patriots. He’s on here only because he’s theoretically the starting quarterback for the Patriots. Bill Belichick saw enough in him that he opted not to select a passer in the 2020 draft, which speaks volumes. The Patriots, as always, seem to have a WR room constructed entirely of players who do their best work out of the slot (Julian Edelman, Mo Sanu, N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers), so it will be interesting to see how the Patriots try to construct their offense this year. It would not be surprising to see them lean heavily on the run game, which could boost the stock of guys like James White and Sony Michel.
Nick Foles, Bears. He’ll take over for Mitch Trubisky sooner rather than later, and he has shown in the past that he can handle starting duties when called upon. With Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Cole Kmet, and Tarik Cohen at his disposal, Foles could end up having a respectable fantasy season. This ranking should show that I like him better than any of the other presumed backups.
Marcus Mariota, Raiders. Mariota is a close second to Foles, though. He got decent money from the Raiders (2 years, $17.6M), which implicitly gives notice to Derek Carr that he is on a short leash. The Raiders invested a good bit in their WR room during the draft (1st rounder Henry Ruggs, 3rd rounder Bryan Edwards, and 3rd rounder Lynn Bowden) so there could be ample weapons for Mariota to go along with returning stalwart Tyrell Williams.
Jameis Winston, Saints. On pure talent alone, Winston is better than several of the players above him on this list. But he ain’t getting any starts this year unless Drew Brees suffers an injury. Should Brees go down, Winston would immediately slot in as a QB1 in Sean Payton’s high-powered offense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins. Yosemite Sam is back for another ride. Fitzpatrick is the ideal bridge quarterback, a guy who is good enough to start in short stretches, is old enough not to expect to be the team’s solution for the future, and is experienced enough to give tips and tricks to the young guy. He has proven in the past that he can produce meaningful fantasy stats if called upon to start.
Andy Dalton, Cowboys. Blandy goes home. The Katy, TX native has returned to his home state on a $7M deal to back up Dak Prescott, and potentially give the team some leverage in extension talks with Dak. Should he be called upon to start, he’ll step in behind the league’s best offensive line (a welcome change from the sieve that protected him in Cincinnati) and with a trio of outstanding wide receivers.
Jordan Love, Packers. Disclaimer: I don’t think Jordan Love starts a single game this year. But if Rodgers suffers an injury, Love walks into a situation where he gets to throw to Davante Adams. There is some value there.
Tyrod Taylor, Chargers. Tuh-rod could keep the seat warm for Herbert for a few games, but he’s unlikely to have much value to anyone other than those streaming QBs early in the season. (Note: the Chargers do play the hapless Bengals in Week 1.)
Cam Newton, Free Agent. I am including him here only because I believe he becomes the starter for someone at some point during the season. QB injuries happen. Newton, pulling his preferred Superman routine, will swoop in to save the day.
Jacoby Brissett, Colts. Jacoby Brissett has made a career out of performing admirably when the starter is unavailable. First, it was in New England, with Tom Brady’s four game-suspension and Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury. Then, it was in Indianapolis, with Andrew Luck unexpectedly missing a season. Then, it was in Indy again, with Andrew Luck unexpectedly retiring following a stellar comeback season. And now, the only way he gets to play is if Philip Rivers gets hurt. Brissett can provide modest production as a streamer in the right spots, but he’s not a reliable every-week starter.
Case Keenum, Browns. Keenum put up that one good season several years ago as a starter for the Vikings, but he totally bombed as the starter for the Broncos and was thereafter exiled to Washington, where he couldn’t fend off Dwayne Haskins for the starting job. He’s a veteran journeyman at this point, but one who has added value given his wealth of starting experience thus far in the NFL. If Baker flops, the Browns may not hesitate to turn the reins over to Keenum.
Will Grier, Panthers. There were many on #teamwillgrier heading into last year’s draft, but he slipped all the way to the bottom of the third round and lost the backup QB competition to Kyle Allen. Allen has been shipped off to Washington, former franchise icon Cam Newton has been cut, and Grier finds himself second on the depth chart behind game manager Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has never put up stellar statistics, so if the team struggles, it is possible they could give Grier a look later in the season to see what they have in him.
Taysom Hill, Saints. A gadget-player only, but he is a TD producer. This is the sort of place you go only if you’re desperate.
Brian Hoyer, Patriots. It’s theoretically possible that Hoyer, not Stidham, is the Patriots’ signal-caller for 2020. In that case, he’d have value, albeit limited.
Kyle Allen, Redskins. Allen acquitted himself reasonably well filling in for an injured Cam Newton in 2019, so much so that Ron Rivera traded for him after he was axed by Carolina and took the Washington job. Allen was useful as a streamer in several spots last season (in particular the Arizona game), so he could be useful here and there if Haskins misses any time. One word of caution, though: his supporting cast in Washington will not be as good as it was in Carolina.
Jake Fromm, Bills. He’s probably about as different than Josh Allen as one could possibly be. He’s got a small arm, doesn’t run, and is very methodical and accurate. Allen, on the other hand, has a huge arm, loves to scramble, plays on the fly and is wild as can be. The Bills offense would look drastically different with Fromm under center, but it could still be functional with guys like Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs around to catch passes.
Robert Griffin III, Ravens. Bobby Three-Sticks becomes a valuable commodity should Lamar Jackson miss any time. They have similar playing styles, so the team should not have to adjust the offense much if RGIII is called into action.