Running Back Rankings - 2020
As noted in our prior articles ranking Quarterbacks and Tight Ends, I’ve finally caved. I prefer grouping players into categorical tiers, rather than ranking them, but the people want what they want - and what they want are rankings. So rankings they shall get. Below are my running back rankings for 2020, based on what we know in the COVID19 world of May 2020. These rankings can, and likely will, change by the time drafts roll around in August based on new information. The rankings are based on a standard-scoring 12-team league.
Saquon Barkley, Giants. Consensus wisdom has Christian McCaffrey at #1, and with good reason: nearly 1,400 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving last year, with 19 total touchdowns and 116 receptions. No question, CMC is a stud. But I am very concerned by his his 400+ touches in 2019, as running backs who see that type of workload typically the following year more than 75% of the time (see https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/offseason-extra-the-year-after-400-plus-touches/). Even more concerning is the fact that backs with that type of workload get injured the following season about one-third of the time. I have serious concerns about McCaffrey either breaking down (he was never the biggest cat to begin with) or just plain regressing. Now, why Barkley ahead of him? First, Barkley has higher draft capital associated with him (#2 overall vs. #8), and he’s the best running back prospect I had ever evaluated coming out of college. He and McCaffrey are the same age, but McCaffrey has significantly more tread on the tires, having come into the league a year earlier. Barkley had a “down” sophomore campaign in 2019 and still amassed 1,000 yards rushing. Plus, his rookie year stats from 2018 compare favorably to CMC’s 2019: 1,300 yards rushing for 11 touchdowns and 91 receptions for 4 touchdowns (vs. 1,387 and 15, and 116 and 4). And I still think Barkley has room to improve. The team spent 2 of their first three picks on offensive tackles, including Georgia stud left tackle Andrew Thomas. First-round quarterback Daniel Jones is entering Year 2 and should improve. There is a great supporting cast around him consisting of WR Golden Tate, WR Sterling Shepard, sophomore WR Darius Slayton, and TE Evan Engram, so teams should not be able to stack the box to try to stop him. I like his supporting cast considerably better than McCaffrey’s comrades: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR D.J. Moore, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Robby Anderson, and TE Ian Thomas. Finally, I think Barkley is the bigger home run threat. At the combine, Barkley ran a 4.40 40-yard dash, compared to a 4.48 for McCaffrey. Barkley also boasts superior size, at 6’0, 233 pounds. He’s an inch taller and nearly 30 pounds heavier than McCaffrey, giving him a better chance to succeed as a goal line banger.
It may be splitting hairs, but I think Barkley has a better chance than McCaffrey to finish the season as the RB1.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. Plainly, I’m not THAT scared by McCaffrey’s 2019 workload, as I still have him among my top two backs. As noted, McCaffrey was second in the league with 116 catches. That’s second in the entire NFL, not just among running backs. He gives a safe floor with his receiving ability. But what if the Panthers scale back his workload? Surely they can’t expect him to handle 400 carries a year.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys. He’s about as reliable as they come. In four years in the league, he’s averaged 10 rushing touchdowns and 1,350 yards rushing, and the only year he failed to eclipse the 1,000-yard threshold was when he was suspended for six games. The past two years he’s averaged 65 receptions, which averages out to about four per game. There also aren’t really any threats to his workload. He’s a low-floor, high-ceiling player and is playing in an offense that continues to ascend. The Cowboys’ first round selection of CeeDee Lamb (to pair with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup) should continue to ensure that Zeke does not see any stacked defensive fronts. He’s a locked-and-loaded RB1 who should be a Top-5 pick in every draft, regardless of format.
Alvin Kamara, Saints. Kamara had a “down” 2019, but it was really only because the touchdowns weren’t as plentiful as we had become accustomed (only 5 rushing scores and 1 receiving score). His receptions, though, were right where we expected - in fact, in every single year in the league, Alvin Kamara has had precisely 81 receptions. Talk about consistency! Generally speaking, this is a guy who is a threat both rushing and receiving and combines for somewhere in the range of 1,300 to 1,600 scrimmage yards. In his first two years in the league, he averaged 16 total touchdowns per season, but last year, he cratered to 6. I’m going to presume last year was the outlier, and that he gets back into double digits in 2020.
Joe Mixon, Bengals. Joe Mixon never gets enough love. It’s probably because he splits part of the workload with Giovani Bernard, and in 2019 played behind Cincinnati’s Swiss cheese offensive line, but the arrow is pointing way up in 2020. Last year, when everything that could have possibly gone wrong DID, Mixon still managed 1100 yards rushing and five touchdowns, with another three through the air. If 2019 is the floor for the 24-year-old, aren’t you excited about what 2020 could be with Joe Burrow under center, the return of AJ Green, and a first round pick at left tackle?
Dalvin Cook, Vikings. The dude finally stayed healthy in 2019 and delivered a stellar season for those who believed in him enough to draft him within the first two rounds. With the team jettisoning star wideout Stefon Diggs, they project to be at least as run-heavy (if not more so) as 2019. If he can stay healthy, another 1,100 yards and double digit touchdowns is a virtual lock. His first and second half splits are some cause for concern, though. In his first 7 games, he rushed for 725 yards and averaged over 100 yards per game. In his final 7, he rushed for 410 yards, averaging less than 60 yards per game. In fact, in three of his final 4 games, he rushed for fewer than 30 yards. I have him behind Mixon because their stats were similar last year, but 2019 was considered a down season for Mixon and a breakout season for (the older) Dalvin Cook.
Nick Chubb, Browns. Most people know that Derrick Henry led the league in rushing in 2019, but very few are aware that Chubb was #2. He had a stellar season for a team that wasn’t very good. His situation should be improved in 2019, with the Browns having spent their first round pick on Alabama OT Jedrick Wills. Many are concerned about Kareem Hunt’s return and the effect that could have on Chubb’s workload, but I am not concerned. Hunt will be sprinkled in to keep Chubb fresh, and should contribute on third down (a situation where Chubb wasn’t always playing anyway). I’m expecting a leap forward for the Browns offense this year during Year 3 under Baker Mayfield, and the 24-year-old Chubb should be the primary beneficiary if this team can take a step forward. If he can rush for nearly 1,500 yards playing for a team with a losing record (6-10), what can he do for a team that is playing with leads?
Chris Carson, Seahawks. What does this guy have to do to get some love? He’s one of the most consistent players in the league on one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. In 2018 and 2019, managers wanted to fade him because of Rashaad Penny. In 2020, managers want to fade him because of free agent signee Carlos Hyde and 4th round pick DeeJay Dallas. Folks, this is Seattle! Draft pedigree doesn’t matter. Whoever is the best player matters. No one who has watched football over the past three years thinks Carlos Hyde is a better player than Chris Carson. Carson is going to emerge as the lead dog yet again in this backfield, and he’s going to do just what he did the last couple years: put up 1100-1200 yards rushing and score about 9 times. He’s not likely to finish as the RB1, but he’s also not likely to finish outside the Top 12.
Derrick Henry, Titans. I know he led the league in rushing. I’m just not a believer in Derrick Henry. He’s a bull moose, and he’s really hard to bring down if he gets a head of steam, but the dude has no lateral agility. Plus, I wonder how he’s going to hold up following a huge workload in 2019 (303 carries in the regular season and 83 in the playoffs). He also brings nothing in the passing game, so he has a very low floor. I have him top 10 among backs because he has back-to-back seasons of 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns, but I think he has more risk than most fantasy managers are willing to admit.
Le’Veon Bell, Jets. Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Bell in 2019, and he still managed to finish the season with 1,250 yards from scrimmage. For perspective, that’s only 80 yards fewer than Alvin Kamara, who is generally regarded as a consensus first round pick. Bell also had 66 receptions in his first season in New York, which was good enough for 7th-best among all running backs. The Jets’ offense was a dumpster fire last year, so we’ve essentially seen his floor - a respectable RB2. And when he was with Pittsburgh, we saw his ceiling: the best player in fantasy. Bell may be entering his age-28 season, but he’s a young 28, having skipped all of 2018. There is little threat to his workload - I’m not worried about grandpa Frank Gore or 4th rounder La’Mical Perine - so Bell should get workhorse usage for a team that spent it’s first two draft choices on improving it’s offense (first round LT Mekhi Becton and second round WR Denzel Mims).
Austin Ekeler, Chargers. Ekeler made the most of his opportunity during Melvin Gordon’s holdout last season and never looked back. He finished the season just 7 yards shy of 1,000 yards receiving, and was second among all running backs in receptions with 91. The issue now is whether his 5’10, 200 pound frame can continue to hold up under the constant pounding that feature backs must endure. He has never rushed for more than 600 yards or three touchdowns in a season. Much of his fantasy appeal came through last season’s 8 touchdowns through the air. That sort of workload may be repeatable if he sees as much passing volume as he did in 2019 - especially with a rookie QB under center - but part of me is concerned that some of those touchdowns are going to find their way to Mike Williams and Hunter Henry, who are positive regression candidates.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders. I was wrong about Josh Jacobs. I wanted nothing to do with him last year. He didn’t prove he could be the lead dog at Alabama (splitting carries with Damien Harris), so I was concerned that he couldn’t be the lead dog in the NFL. I’ve changed my tune, as he had an excellent rookie season, amassing 1,150 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns in 13 games. If he can continue to improve as a sophomore - which isn’t that much of a leap, given that he should be facing fewer stacked boxes with the Raiders’ additions of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards in the draft - he could find himself in the upper echelon of running backs by the end of the season.
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars. Fournette would be higher on this list but for the Jaguars’ offense. I just don’t trust it. Gardner Minshew was a nice story, but the jury is still out on whether he can truly be “the guy” for this team. The way that the Jags have been operating over the last 12 months, it feels like they could be going into tank mode for 2020, hoping to secure Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields in 2021. I’m just not sure how effective Fournette can be if they continue to play from behind. Now, for the positives: he rushed for 1,152 yards last season, and should improve on his 3 rushing scores if he gets a similar workload in 2020. He also finished Top 5 among running backs with 76 receptions; however, that number should regress with the Jaguars’ offseason signing of 3rd down specialist Chris Thompson. Fournette is likely best viewed as a high-end RB2.
Miles Sanders, Eagles. Miles Sanders is an enigma to me. The positives in his favor: High draft pedigree, good speed, presumed to be a workhorse back for the Eagles. The negatives: fumbling issues dating back to college, so-so production as a rookie (only one 100-yard game), an offense that looked inept down the stretch. If he can continue to build on his 800 yards rushing from last year and keep his fumbling in check, while continuing to improve in the passing game (50 rec/500 yards as a rookie), I’m intrigued. But those are a lot of ifs, so I am cautious. Also, the Eagles seem interested in bringing in LeSean McCoy or Devonta Freeman, so I’m not convinced his workload is going to be as heavy as the fantasy community generally seems to believe.
Aaron Jones, Packers. Look, I love Aaron Jones, ok? Dude is a really talented player. But for whatever reason, the Packers want to split his workload with the delightfully average Jamaal Williams and second-round thumper A.J. Dillon. The Dillon selection, to me, signals that the Pack could be ready to move on from Jones after this season. And call me a skeptic, but I just don’t believe that Jones is going to repeat his 16 touchdowns from last season, especially with the anticipated workload split. He barely rushed for 1,000 yards last year. If he had only scored 6 touchdowns, instead of 16, would people be going ga-ga over him as a potential first? Playing in the Packers’ offense, he certainly has the opportunity to have another excellent campaign, but another 16 scores just isn’t likely to be in the cards. I may eat my words on this one, but I’d rather be wrong pegging Jones as a RB2 than whiffing on him as a top-20 pick and expecting a repeat of his 2019 outlier season.
Kenyan Drake, Cardinals. I’m not going to wind up with Kenyan Drake on any of my fantasy teams. I don’t hate the dude or anything, but it seems that most other sites have him as a RB1. Is that within his range of outcomes? Sure. But I think a top-12 ranking for Drake ignores the massive risk that he carries. This is a guy that hasn’t been his team’s lead ball-carrier for the entire season since high school. He spent 3+ years with a Dolphins team desperate for quality running backs and the best he could muster was 644 rushing yards (2017) and 4 rushing touchdowns (2018). He had a “career year” of sorts once traded to Arizona last year - or, more appropriately, a career half-year - but the bulk of his production came in the final three games of the season, when he scored 7 touchdowns (4 against the Browns). I worry that the fantasy community’s love affair with Drake is a prime example of recency bias, focusing only on his final month of the season, and not his overall body of work. If he continues to produce like he did in December, he’s definitely a RB1. But if he produces like he did in November (51 ypg and 0 touchdowns), he’s going to end up burning a lot of fantasy managers.
James Conner, Steelers. How soon we forget. While filling in for an injured Le’Veon Bell in 2018, Conner scored 12 touchdowns on the ground while racking up just shy of 1,000 yards in 13 games, to go along with 55 receptions and nearly 500 yards receiving. His production dipped considerably in 2019, but that was because he missed over 1/3 of the season due to injury and because the Steelers offense was a mess without Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is back this year and Conner is healthy. Yes, the Steelers used fourth round picks on running backs Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland in the last two years, but neither has yet shown that they are a threat to a healthy Conner’s workload. Conner could end up being one of the steals of 2020 drafts if he can return to his 2018 form.
Melvin Gordon, Broncos. My opinions on Gordon fluctuate frequently. On the one hand, he’s only a season removed from being one of the top backs in the NFL. But then his holdout happened, it ended strangely and without resolution, and he had to sign with the Broncos in the offseason for far less than he was offered by the Chargers. Dude needs to fire his agent. But anyway… in Denver, he’s stuck in a timeshare with former UDFA Phillip Lindsay. Gordon is the better pass-catcher of the two, so he should probably earn the third down role, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the workload will be split between he and Lindsay. Although Lindsay has proven himself to be a competent NFL player, talent ultimately wins out, so I am projecting Gordon for around 225 carries (essentially, what Lindsay got last year) and Lindsay getting around 135 carries (roughly what Royce Freeman got last year). He should also get 50 or so catches (essentially what he got with the Chargers when healthy), about 8 scores on the ground, and another 1-2 through the air. All in all, he’s a worthwhile choice for your RB2.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs. Don’t assume that just because Kansas City used it’s first-round pick on CEH that he is automatically a workhorse back for them. It would not be at all surprising to see them ease him in this year, as they are returning starter Damien Williams, who has proven over parts of the last two seasons that he can carry the load when called upon. In the event of an injury to Williams, or if he is gradually phased out as the season wears on, then there is of course significant appeal to Edwards-Helaire. But I think a lot of fantasy managers in redraft leagues will draft him higher than his production this season will warrant. He certainly gets a bump in keeper formats, though.
David Johnson, Texans. Is David Johnson a good players? Seriously asking. The David Johnson we saw in 2016 was an absolute stud: 1,239 yards rushing, 16 rushing TDs, 80 receptions, 879 yards, 4 touchdowns. He hasn’t sniffed those numbers in any of his other 4 seasons. In fact, 2016 was the only season of his career that he rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Last year, he rushed for only 345 yards in 13 games. Part of his appeal seems to be that he’s projected to get a ton of volume with the Texans, and sure, maybe that will prove to be true. But how many times do we boost bad players who are projected for a ton of volume, and it just doesn’t pan out? Remember Kalen Ballage last year? Just because a player is going to get volume doesn’t automatically mean it’s going to lead to fantasy stardom. Johnson may have a decent floor because of his pass catching abilities, but the last several seasons suggest that his 2016 was an unrepeatable outlier.
Mark Ingram, Ravens. He’s this low only because he’s old and because the Ravens drafted J.K. Dobbins, which could present a challenge to his workload. But Ingram was fantastic in 2019, and if he doesn’t suffer a decrease in his workload, he will vastly outperform his draft position. In his first year in Baltimore, he posted 10 rushing scores and over 1,000 yards on the ground (on barely 200 carries!). He also tacked on 5 receiving scores, although those likely are not repeatable since he only caught 26 passes.
Todd Gurley, Falcons. I am decidedly OUT on Todd Gurley. The guy just hasn’t looked the same since he reinjured his knee in 2018. There’s a reason the Rams bailed on this guy even though he’s only 25. Gurley steps into a great situation (and great offense) in Atlanta, and he really has no threat to his workload. But given the state of his knee, is that really a good thing? Although Gurley posted 14 total touchdowns last year, he posted the lowest rushing total of his career (including the Jeff Fisher era). If he continues to decline, you’d expected the total number of scores to go down, too.
Raheem Mostert, 49ers. Production wise, he should have earned our trust. But I just have a tough time endorsing guys who were UDFAs as fantasy starters. There’s a reason this dude was cut by several teams before finally flashing with the 49ers at 27 years old. True, his workload is a little safer with the team shipping off Matt Breida to the Dolphins. But would it really surprise anyone if Tevin Coleman or Jerick McKinnon was the 49ers lead ball-carrier by Week 4? With as consistent as Mostert was down the stretch (at least one rushing touchdown in each of the final 6 regular season games), he had only one 100-yard rushing game on the season, and he doesn’t show much as a pass catcher (just 14 receptions). There’s always the chance he builds on last season’s strong finish, but I think it’s more likely that this guy goes back to being the journeyman he’s always been.
D’Andre Swift, Lions. Hate the situation, love the talent. In my opinion, Swift was the most talented running back in the 2019 draft. Imagine how high this guy would have been drafted in fantasy had he gone to the Chiefs. But, alas, it wasn’t to be. Still, I buy into the guy. I understand he has some sort of timeshare this season with Kerryon Johnson, but (a) Swift is a superior talent to Johnson and (b) Johnson has had a real problem staying healthy in the NFL. If Johnson misses any time in 2020, Swift should immediately vault into the RB1 conversation.
James White, Patriots. Whether it’s sophomore Jarrett Stidham or journeyman Brian Hoyer, whoever is under center for the Patriots is likely going to be looking for his checkdown option quite a bit. Enter James White. This man is about as consistent as they come. He’s never going to put up huge rushing stats - the guy has never had 100 carries in a season - but he is Old Reliable when it comes to catching passes. He’s had 55+ receptions four straight years, and 70+ each of the last two. He is the ideal bye-week or injury replacement for one of your top 2 backs, as he presents a safe weekly floor due to the receptions and also has some upside for receiving scores.
Tarik Cohen, Bears. Much like James White, Cohen goes overlooked because he doesn’t get many carries, but he is a receptions machine. He had 53 receptions his rookie season, 71 in 2018, and 79 last year. That was more than all but 14 wide receivers. He’s never going to give you much on the ground, but he does give you a pretty safe floor through the air. I’ve got him just below White because White has shown a bit more of a penchant for catching touchdowns.
David Montgomery, Bears. Back-to-back Bears! Montgomery isn’t anything resembling a special talent, but he should get a healthy workload for the Bears this season. Yes, yes, I know what I said about comparing David Johnson to Kalen Ballage, and players who aren’t special. But I think this is different. Kalen Ballage is JAG (just a guy), whereas Montgomery is more just “average.” I don’t mean average as a slight. What I mean is that he isn’t a Nick Chubb-level athlete. He’s an average athlete that can give you average running back production. The guy had almost 900 yards rushing last season, so it’s won’t take a huge leap for him to get to 1,000 this year; and unlike last year, he’s not starting the season on the depth chart behind Mike Davis. He’s a solid bet for nearly 300 touches and 5-6 touchdowns if he can stay healthy.
Cam Akers, Rams. Former five star recruit walks into an ideal situation in Los Angeles. Sure, Akers’ production wasn’t great at Florida State. His team wasn’t great, either. With the Rams, he’ll be surrounded by talent and will be playing with arguably the league’s most creative offensive head coach. Consider me among those who are not intimated by the presence of Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. I think this guy is probably a locked and loaded starter from Week 1, but the uncertainty at this point is what pushes him so far down the list.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts. The analytics community LOVES Jonathan Taylor based on what he did in college. I’m not convinced. Sure, the guy had great production at Wisconsin, but he also had a huge fumbling problem. You do that in the NFL, the coaches are yanking you off the field. In addition, he has a lot of tread on the tires (926 carries in 3 seasons). Who is to say he won’t wear down quickly in the NFL due to his heavy workload. (Those who like him, of course, will say that his college career proves he can handle a heavy workload.) Finally, there’s the presence of Marlon Mack in Indy. Mack isn’t a “special” talent, by any means, but he’s an above average player coming off a season of nearly 1,100 yards rushing, and back to back seasons of 8 or more touchdowns. There could come a time when Jonathan Taylor is a fantasy starter, but it likely isn’t 2020.
Devin Singletary, Bills. Singletary had a promising rookie year (775 yards rushing), but then the Bills went out and spent a 3rd round pick on bruiser Zack Moss. My projection here is that Singletary becomes the “between the 20s” guy, and Moss becomes the goal-line thumper. That would seriously cap Singletary’s upside.
Derrius Guice, Redskins. Who knows what Washington is going to do with their backfield this year. They have a lot of similar early down thumpers in Guice, Adrian Peterson, and Bryce Love. My gut tells me that Guice ends up earning the starting gig. Peterson will likely return only if Love still isn’t fully healthy; I think this team wants to play its young players to grow with QB Dwayne Haskins. Regardless of which running back wins the job, this is likely to be a low-scoring offense, which caps that player’s fantasy value.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens. The Ravens run the majority of their plays out of the shotgun. Dobbins was the best back in college football last year running out of the shotgun. Sometimes it’s that simple. Whenever Dobbins supplants Mark Ingram, he’s going to be a hugely useful fantasy asset.
Marlon Mack, Colts. He’s averaged nearly 1,000 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns each of the past two seasons. Jonathan Taylor threatens his workload, but he’s still going to get plenty of touches this year.
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos. I could essentially quote Mack’s stat line from above. He, too, has averaged over 1,000 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns each of the past two seasons. I’ve got him below Mack only because I believe more in the Colts offense than the Broncos.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers. Too many people assume that Vaughn is automatically going to supplant Ronald Jones as the Bucs’ starter. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen before Week 1? Probably not. The Tampa Bay offense, featuring Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and OJ Howard, should score a ton of points. Whoever is the starting runner is going to benefit from that. But will that be Vaughn, or RoJo?
Sony Michel, Patriots. The hate has gone too far on Sony Michel. With Tom Brady now in Tampa, do you think the Pats are going to throw more? This is the year of Sony. He’s going to get as much work as he can handle. You’ll also see a healthy dose of Damien Harris sprinkled in this season as well.
Kerryon Johnson, Lions. Two seasons ago, the Lions traded up in the draft to snag Kerryon Johnson in Round 2. But the dude just can’t stay healthy, and has never played more than 10 games or scored more than 3 touchdowns in a season. Perhaps splitting carries with D’Andre Swift will allow him to stay healthy. He should have the early edge at starting duties, and maybe the added competition from Swift could motivate him. But as Bill Parcells always said: your best ability is your availability.
Damien Williams, Chiefs. Everyone assumes Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to be “the man” for Kansas City. Why? I know they spent a first round pick on him, but they just won a Super Bowl with Damien Williams. He knows the offense, and he’s been able to handle the load when called upon. This is one of my favorite “value picks” in 2020 drafts.
Zack Moss, BIlls. He’s got the talent to challenge Devin Singletary for the starting job. But at the very least, he should earn short-yardage and goal line duties, which will give him standalone value.
Matt Breida, Dolphins. This guy never gets any love, but he helps fantasy managers every year. He’s a more well-rounded talent than Jordan Howard, who is the only real threat to his workload.
Jordan Howard, Dolphins. Howard is a classic two-down thumper, but that’s all he is. When he is in the game, it all but telegraphs to the offense that the team is calling a running play. Still, this offense should be improved from last season, and if Howard gets the role of goal-line back, he could put up some useful weeks for fantasy managers as a bye week filler.
Latavius Murray, Saints. His 2020 wasn’t quite as robust as some had hoped, but look, the dude isn’t Mark Ingram. He’s a goal line back who can be counted on for 5-6 touchdowns a year, who is capable of handling a heavy workload in the event of an injury to Alvin Kamara.
Ronald Jones, Buccaneers. Why can’t RoJo be the lead back for the Bucs? He had over 700 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns last year, which isn’t necessarily “impressive,” but it’s not embarrassing, either. If he can continue to improve in pass pro, he could reap the benefits of playing in an offense orchestrated by Tom Brady.
Kareem Hunt, Browns. Look, we saw what the guy could do with the Chiefs. He’s capable of being a top back in the league. But he probably isn’t getting that sort of opportunity as long as Nick Chubb is healthy. This guy has “handcuff” written all over him.
A.J. Dillon, Packers. Despite being a second round pick, Dillon is getting ZERO love. Yes, the Packers have Aaron Jones, who had a great season. Yes, the Packers have Jamaal Williams, who is the presumptive backup to Jones. But Green Bay spent some serious draft capital on this guy (eschewing the available receivers, which one could argue was their biggest need). That tells you how highly they think of this kid. Call be crazy, but I think Green Bay has a plan for how to use their second round pick.
Antonio Gibson, Redskins. It remains to be seen whether Washington is going to deploy Gibson as a running back or as a wide receiver, but he probably presents more value in the backfield. Given how few pass catchers Washington has outside of Terry McLaurin, Gibson could be in line for a decent PPR season.
Tevin Coleman, 49ers. I’ve got Coleman this high because of my concerns about Raheem Mostert. With Matt Breida having been shipped to Miami, only 28-year-old-journeyman Mostert stands between Coleman and the starting gig. He had 10 or more carries in nearly half of his games last season, and he was the only back on the team with a 20-carry game in the regular season. At this point, we’ve seen enough of Coleman to know that he’s not special, but if the 49ers have a top offense again in 2020, he’s got fairly decent touchdown upside if he can beat out Mostert for the starting gig.
Darrynton Evans, Titans. I’m a bit higher on Evans than the consensus. I am very concerned about Derrick Henry’s workload last season, and it appears that Evans would be the next man up should Henry miss any time. At worst, he should fill the old “Dion Lewis” role.
Nyheim Hines, Colts. Philip Rivers has a penchant for checking down to his running backs, and Hines has locked up the third down role. He’ll never carry the load for this team, given the presence of Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor, but he offers as safe weekly floor in a pinch as a flex.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers. Austin Ekeler is not a goal-line banger. Justin Jackson could fill that role, but my money is on Kelley, the shiny new toy drafted in the fourth round by the Bolts.
Lynn Bowden, Raiders. He’s going to be a Swiss army knife for the Raiders. He’ll run the ball, catch some passes, and maybe even throw it a little bit. He’s the sort of guy whose production is probably going to vary wildly week to week, though.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys. Any back who has an opportunity to run behind the Cowboys’ line has value. This is going to be a dynamic offense. Pollard isn’t getting much run as long as Zeke Elliott is in the picture, but he’s a name to remember.
Adrian Peterson, Redskins. You gotta rank him somewhere. He’s been written off each of the last 3 or so seasons, but he keeps finding a way to stay relevant. He’s clearly not the dude that he was in Minnesota, but he’s still a serviceable NFL player. He followed up 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2018 with nearly 900 and 5 in 2019. Is this the year Father Time finally catches up with him, or will splitting carries with Guice prolong his career?
Chase Edmonds, Cardinals. Edmonds is this high because i have to be logically consistent. If I don’t believe in Kenyan Drake, I have to reasonably value his backup, as the backup might be the guy who outperforms the starter. Edmonds has proven capable in limited action (including a 27-carry, 126-yard, 3-touchdown effort against the Giants last year) so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him take off in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense if given the opportunity.
Benny Snell, Steelers. Last year’s fourth round pick ended the season with 18 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown against the vaunted Ravens defense, so he’s clearly got some ability. With James Conner always dealing with a variety of ailments, it wouldn’t be surprised if Snell were called upon to make some starts this season. During his final year at Kentucky, Snell carried the offense. He may be able to do the same for the Steelers if given the opportunity.
Anthony McFarland, Steelers. McFarland is the reason Snell isn’t higher on the list. We don’t truly know which of these cats will be called upon to carry the load in the event Conner misses any time. But McFarland has equally high draft capital working in his favor, so it’s certainly possible he’s the first man off the bench for Pittsburgh.
La’Mical Perine, Jets. Really, the only competition for Le’Veon Bell. I don’t think Frank Gore is going to threaten Bell’s workload, so if they want to keep him fresh, Perine is going to be the guy.
Giovani Bernard, Bengals. I think there’s a perception that Giovani Bernard is better than he really is. He’s a decent third down back, and he can provide adequate starter’s reps in the event of an injury. But he’s not the sort of guy that would vault into the RB1 conversation if he were getting all of the carries for Cincinnati.
Damien Harris, Patriots. With Tom Brady gone, this offense is primed to be run-heavy. Harris was a third round pick out of Alabama in 2019 but only saw action in one game. Now that he’s more familiar with the system, he should be more involved in Year 2, especially if Sony Michel continues to struggle to produce.
Darrell Henderson, Rams. He was drafted to be a change-of-pace back, but he didn’t display the pass-catching chops that were expected last season (only 4 receptions). With Todd Gurley having been cut, there should be a full-blown competition in camp for starting duties between Henderson, presumptive favorite Cam Akers, and Malcolm Brown.
Carlos Hyde, Seahawks. Believe it or not, last year was the best season of Hyde’s career, as he topped 1,000 yards for the first time. He doesn’t add much in the passing game, but he’s certainly capable of carrying the load for the run-heavy Seahawks if Chris Carson doesn’t heal as expected from last season’s fractured hip.
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks. The guy was a first round pick. I always have a hard time letting go. But it appears he’s going to start the season on the PUP list, as the Seahawks signed Carlos Hyde to back up Chris Carson. And let’s not forget they spent a fourth round pick on DeeJay Dallas, as well. At this point, though, you’re really just making dart throws, so why not target the guy with the first round pedigree?
Alex Mattison, Vikings. Dalvin Cook has never been the most durable cat around, which means Mattison needs to be on your radar. Mattison was a third round pick, and had a pretty solid rookie season, chipping in over 500 yards from scrimmage despite having only 100 carries.
Bryce Love, Redskins. Remember when this guy was a Heisman candidate? Then he got hurt, and then… well, it’s been a long time since Bryce Love was relevant. But this is an unsettled backfield, so would it surprise anyone if he wound up the starter?
Devonta Freeman, Free Agent. My gut tells me he doesn’t sit out the 2020 season, and will sign somewhere to split carries (Philadelphia or San Francisco, maybe?). If he’s signed, he’s going to have value.
Reggie Bonnafon, Panthers. Bonnafon would be the presumptive next man up if CMC breaks following last season’s crazy workload.
Chris Thompson, Jaguars. Thompson is an excellent third down back and has a great deal of familiarity with offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, having played for him in Washington. He’ll probably eat into Leonard Fournette’s third down work a good deal, and may be another guy that offers a safe weekly floor due to his pass catching ability.
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks. The Seahawks used reasonably high draft capital on him, but it’s a crowded depth chart in Seattle with Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Rashaad Penny all theoretically ahead of him for touches.
Justice Hill, Ravens. Hill’s chances to become a feature back took a serious hit with the Ravens’ selection of J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the NFL draft. But he’s still a decent home-run hitter, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him rip off a few long runs this season.
Rex Burkhead, Patriots. You never know how the Patriots will deploy this Swiss army knife. He could end up the lead ball carrier, he could end up being cut before the regular season begins. Who knows?
Jamaal Williams, Packers. He would have been a lot higher but for the Packers’ selection of A.J. Dillon in Round 2. He’s gotten at least 100 carries each of his three years in the league, so you know he’s going to be reasonably involved, but he rarely gets enough carries in any single game to be relied upon as a starter.
Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars. He didn’t threaten Leonard Fournette’s workload much in 2019, but maybe that will change in his sophomore campaign.
Trayveon Williams, Bengals. Here’s the dude that might supplant Giovani Bernard as the Bengals’ pass-catching back in 2020, allowing them to move on from Bernard - and his nearly $5M salary - in 2021.
Malcolm Brown, Rams. Sean McVay says it’s going to be a full-on committee attack in 2020. If he’s telling the truth, Brown is probably the one most likely to be the goal-line runner.
Eno Benjamin, Cardinals. Benjamin surprisingly fell to Round 7 in the NFL draft, and he seems like a great fit for the type of offense that Kliff Kingsbury likes to run. I typically avoid late-round runners, but Benjamin could be the exception who carves out a role.
Gus Edwards, Ravens. The UDFA’s days as an early-down thumper for the Ravens are likely coming to a close pretty soon. Ingram is the lead dog, JK Dobbins is next in line, and Justice Hill likely has third downs locked up. There just doesn’t seem to be much opportunity for Edwards, barring an injury.
Dion Lewis, Giants. It’s been a long time since Dion Lewis was a relevant player. But this year, he’s backing up Saquon Barkley, and the Giants are shaping up to have a good deal of talent on offense. If he’s pressed into service, he may be able to put up some useful stat lines.