Weekly Hail Mary: Week 10
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we crushed it again (third week in a row!), hitting on 8 of 13 (62%). For the second week in a row our weak spot was at tight end, but we got really good results at QB, RB, and WR. Here are last week’s recommended plays:
Quarterback
Drew Lock - HIT - 313 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 7 carries, 47 yards, TD. This one was probably tough to watch, but the stat line you needed was there at the end of the day. He was worth nearly 30 points in a standard Yahoo! league.
Kirk Cousins - HIT - 220 yards, 3 TD. He pretty much gave us exactly what we thought he would.
Nick Foles - HIT - 335 yards, 2 TD. This was another game that was tough to watch, but Foles finally put it all together in the second half after getting a whopping 52 pass attempts.
Running Back
Wayne Gallman - HIT - 14 for 68, TD; 1 for 9. Gallman continues to lead the way for the Giants’ backfield.
J.D. McKissic - HIT - 3 for 17; 9 for 65. McKissic was worth more than 12 points in a standard fantasy league, which is plenty useful for a waiver wire running back.
Gus Edwards - HIT - 11 for 23, TD; 2 for 11. Not a stellar stat line by any means, but you’ll take the cheap score.
Wide Receiver
Preston Williams - HIT - 4 for 60, TD. He was on pace for an even bigger day before exiting the contest with a foot injury.
Tim Patrick - HIT - 4 for 29; TD. Like with Gus Edwards, the touchdown saved you, but at the end of the day you still got a useful stat line out of a bye week filler.
Mecole Hardman - MISS - 3 for 48. On a day where Tyreek Hill saw 18 targets, and Travis Kelce saw 12, Hardman saw… 4. Yuck. Spread the ball around a little bit, Patrick!
Darnell Mooney - MISS - 4 for 43. He did lead the team with 11 targets, but unless you’re in a league that rewards targets, you don’t care.
Tight End
Mo Alie-Cox - MISS - 3 for 43. I’m taking the “L” here, but this is probably pretty close to a TE1 week given the weakness of the position in recent weeks. If he had a couple more catches I would have taken the “W.”
Jordan Akins - MISS - 2 for 19. It was nice to see Akins back on the field, but the Texans continued to play Darren Fells more than you’d like. Hopefully Akins’ role will continue to grow as he gets healthier.
Cameron Brate - MISS - 0 for 0. Did anyone see this Bucs’ offensive implosion coming? Tom Brady threw three picks and no touchdowns. The team set a record for fewest rush attempts in a game, with five. Offensively the team just never got rolling. My bad.
And now the Hail Marys for Week 10:
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (24% owned). Tagovailoa looked like the real deal against the Cardinals, which gives me a bit more comfort in recommending him this week, as I typically avoid rookie passers. And his home date with the Chargers is too good to pass up. The Chargers have one of the three friendliest defenses to opposing passers this year.
Nick Foles, Bears (10%). Do I dare? Nick Foles for the third week in a row? I think so. Minnesota is bottom-5 in the NFL against opposing fantasy passers. I do have a bit of trepidation recommending a player in a divisional game - those games always tend to be wacky since the teams know each others’ tendencies so well - but at least on paper, it’s a soft matchup for Foles.
Drew Lock, Broncos (20%). What? Three weeks in a row for Lock as well? Hey, he’s proven us right so far, so why not? He, like Foles, has a divisional game this week, but the Raiders are also pretty soft against the pass. I like him considerably less than Foles and Tua this week, but he should be a viable option.
Baker Mayfield, Browns (33%). Assuming he gets cleared from the COVID protocol, Mayfield - who barely makes the cut for our streamers list - has a tasty home matchup against a Texans defense that just gave up 25 points to a 6th round rookie quarterback in his first NFL start.
Running Back
Wayne Gallman, Giants (25%). The only explanation is that people still haven’t figured out that he’s the lead runner for the G-Men. There’s no other way I can rationalize why he’s only owned in one quarter of leagues. Admittedly, he has a tough matchup on the slate against the Eagles in Week 10, but still, beggars can’t be choosers.
J.D. McKissic, Washington Footballers (24%). I understand why people don’t like J.D. McKissic. He’s a journeyman player who is never going to be the lead ball carrier and is not the goal line back. I get it. But in a PPR league, this is a useful dude. He has at least 6 catches in 4 of his past 5 games. You’d beg for that sort of consistency and usage out of your wide receivers. Why don’t you want it in a running back? And he’s sprinkling in a few rushing attempts each game, to boot!
Cam Akers, Rams (30%). You may favor Malcolm Brown. I don’t have a beef with that; Brown has been the more productive player so far this year. But I think the Rams used the bye week to get Akers ready for a featured workload. They selected him in the second round of this year’s NFL draft despite having myriad other pressing needs (coughoffensivelinecough) so you know he’s a big part of their future. If you’re in dire straits this week, you should bank on him being a big part of their present, as well.
Duke Johnson, Texans (15%). Making this recommendation ONLY IF David Johnson is ruled out. If Duke has the workload to himself, against a middle-of-the-pack Cleveland defense, he could be a viable streamer in Week 10. Again, if David Johnson is active, ignore this recommendation.
Wide Receiver
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (24%). Finally healthy, coming off a bye, and he was productive in his first game back from injury. Fire up the Eagles’ first-rounder with confidence this week. My gut tells me Travis Fulgham is going to draw coverage from James Bradberry, leaving Reagor to battle with lesser corners.
Curtis Samuel, Panthers (29%). I absolutely hate this recommendation. I think Samuel is a below-average NFL wide receiver, and Teddy Bridgewater is a wet blanket. I just don’t think Samuel is a reliable option. But he’s produced the last three weeks (14.3, 19.4, and 22.3 points), so you’ve got to ride the hot streak. He’s been finding the end zone frequently, so you’re hoping that continues against Tampa Bay in Week 10.
Darnell Mooney, Bears (14%). I know, I know. I know, ok? I know. He let us down last week, and in many other weeks where we recommended him. And if he doesn’t hit this week, I’m off of him. But with a Monday night game, against the Vikings - the second-most favorable matchup for opposing wide receivers - and coming off an 11-target game, you’ve got to start him. He’s a big play waiting to happen, which is more likely with the increased target volume and the soft opponent.
Tim Patrick, Broncos (21%). I was very close to recommending teammate KJ Hamler here (Hamler had 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in Week 9), but I’d like to see more consistent usage from Hamler before making him a recommended play. Patrick has at least 100 yards or a touchdown (or both) in 4 of his last 5, so he’s been a fairly reliable option this year.
Tight End
Jordan Akins, Texans (4%). What can I say? He burned us last week. But tight end is a wasteland. They play Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns are not a great matchup for tight ends, but are not a terrible one, either.
Tyler Eifert, Jaguars (5%). You won’t feel good starting Eifert. But he should see 5-6 targets for the Jaguars, especially if rookie WR Laviska Shenault misses time. If Jake Luton is still under center, you’d presume he will continue to search for his safety blanket at tight end. But yeah… tight end is ugly this week.