Weekly Hail Mary: Week 11
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Week 10 was our only subpar week of the season, as we only hit on a pathetic 3 of 14 (21%). Our misses were particularly cringe-worthy. Here are last week’s recommended plays:
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa - HIT - 169 yards, 2 TD. It’s close, but I’m taking the W here. Tagovailoa played turnover-free football and tossed a couple touchdowns in the win against the Chargers.
Nick Foles - MISS - 106, 0 TD, 1 INT. Yikes! This was a brutal, brutal performance, capped off by Foles getting carted off the field in the waning moments. Whoever is under center next week (Tyler Bray?) can’t possibly look worse.
Drew Lock - MISS - 257 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT. Woof. Lock almost got you negative points in this one. He really, really botched it against the Raiders. Four picks? How did he not get benched? This was a really good matchup that he just didn’t deliver in. To top it off, he, like Foles, was injured in the game. It was a dangerous week to be named as a HMF streamer.
Baker Mayfield - MISS - 132 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Another brutal miss. I think we’ve seen enough to be able to confidently say Baker Mayfield is a bust. I do not understand how rookie sixth rounder Jake Luton can carve up the Texans, but former first overall pick Baker Mayfield can’t do a thing.
Running Back
Wayne Gallman - HIT - 18 rushes for 53 yards, 2 TD; 1 reception for 7 yards. The yardage total wasn’t inspiring, but Gallman is seeing a heavy workload and is finding pay dirt. He’s actually been a fairly reliable RB2 for nearly a month now.
J.D. McKissic - HIT - 8 for 6, TD; 7 for 43. McKissic is a PPR dynamo. Seven catches and a TD? Fantasy goodness. McKissic isn’t a sexy name, but he continues to be a reliable option.
Cam Akers - MISS - 10 for 38. The process was good here, but the results were not. Akers led all Rams running backs in carries, but it was Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson who came away with the touchdowns. What can ya do?
Duke Johnson - MISS - 14 for 54; 0 for 0. I cannot explain how this guy didn’t have a catch. Houston and Cleveland both played uninspired football in this toilet bowl.
Wide Receiver
Jalen Reagor - MISS - 4 catches for 47 yards. He was the most-targeted Eagle, but the final stat line was still nothing to write home about. Carson Wentz spread it around a ton in this one.
Curtis Samuel - MISS - 3 for 8; 3 rushes for 4 yards. Here’s what I’ll say about Samuel’s performance (quoting myself in last week’s column): “I absolutely hate this recommendation. I think Samuel is a below-average NFL wide receiver, and Teddy Bridgewater is a wet blanket. I just don’t think Samuel is a reliable option.” Any time you start to rely on Samuel, you’re gonna get burned. I got burned this week.
Tim Patrick - MISS - 4 for 61. WIth this stat line, Patrick didn’t kill you, but he didn’t help you all that much either. He was worth about 8 points in a standard fantasy league.
Darnell Mooney - MISS - 2 for 3. Sorry guys. I won’t recommend him again. He’s this year’s Dante Pettis.
Tight End
Jordan Akins - MISS - 1 for 5. One catch? Really? I have no idea what was wrong with Deshaun Watson in this game, but something was clearly off.
Tyler Eifert - MISS - 2 for 15. Better than Akins, but still yuck. This is the worst year I can remember for streaming tight ends in over two decades of playing fantasy.
We must do better. We vow to do better. And now, onto the Hail Marys for Week 11:
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (28% owned). Cousins squares off on Sunday against a very beatable Cowboys secondary. Although the Cowboys have been slightly better as of late, it’s still a prime matchup for a veteran QB like Cousins.
Sam Darnold/Joe Flacco, Jets (7%/1%). Take a Tums first. I get it. But fire up whomever is the starting quarterback for the Jets. The Chargers have the fourth-friendliest defense for opposing passers, and the Jets finally have their core wide receivers healthy in Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, and Breshad Perriman. This is a team that could be a decent source of fantasy points in the final few weeks of the season.
Jameis Winston, Saints (31%). With Drew Brees out, Winston is thrust into the starting role for the Saints. Last year, despite his turnover problem, he was one of the most prolific assets in fantasy. His first start in 2020 comes against the hapless Falcons, who give up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league. Winston is the #1 streamer of the week. My only concern is that it’s almost too chalky to actually work out. Also, there are rumors that Taysom Hill may start instead of Winston, so pay close attention Sunday morning. If Winston isn’t starting, obviously remove him from the streamers list.
Alex Smith, Footballers (7%). Alex Smith faces off against a Bengals defense that has been subpar both in real life and in fantasy. Smith threw for over 300 yards last week, but did not have any touchdown passes. He’s likely to rectify that this week against the Bengals, who are the 7th-friendliest defense to opposing fantasy passers.
[Editor’s note: Jameis Winston and Alex Smith were added as HMF streamers on 11/19, after the original publication of this article. Ownership percentages for those two players is as of 11/19. When those two players were added, Cowboys QB Andy Dalton was removed as a recommended play.]
Running Back
LaMical Perine, Jets (24%). If you believe Adam Gase (and I’m not sure that I do), the Jets intend to make Perine their feature back for the rest of the year. It’s difficult to find feature backs at this point in the season. (Really? Have I recommended three Jets so far? I thought I vowed to “do better.”)
Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins (5%). This recommendation is contingent upon Myles Gaskin remaining on IR. But Ahmed has looked good when given his opportunity, with 21 rushes for 85 yards and a tiddy in Week 10 against the Chargers.
Wide Receiver
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (26%). His ownership percentage is likely to go down after a rough game against the Giants. So buy. Buy now. He was the most targeted Eagle last week, and his production is bound to go up if he continues as Carson Wentz’s preferred option. He has a matchup in Week 5 against Cleveland, which is among the top 5 teams in points allowed to opposing wide receivers. As long as he doesn’t draw Denzel Ward shadow coverage, he should be able to produce in Week 11.
Breshad Perriman, Jets (8%). He’s a lottery-ticket, boom-or-bust type, but we know he has it in him to go off for a long score. Against a beatable Chargers defense, I’d take the chance. (Four Jets? Wow. HMF is on full tilt.)
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (31%). Speaking of lottery tickets, why not take a big-play threat tied to the best passer in the NFL? The Chiefs were on a bye in Week 10, so he’s been out of sight, out of mind, plus he was on the COVID list. A lot of folks in your league probably dropped him, so he should be available on your waiver wire as a plug-and-play option for his Week 11 showdown with the Raiders on Sunday night.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (5%). For as long as Irv Smith is out, Rudolph will be on the streamers list. He had 4 catches and 60+ yards last week.
Drew Sample, Bengals (1%). Cincinnati faces Washington in Week 11, and the Footballers are not great against the tight end. After getting embarrassed against the Steelers this past week, I think Cincinnati comes out firing against the Football Team, and this is a cheap way to get tied to this offense.