Weekly Hail Mary: Week 9
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we crushed it again (third week in a row!), hitting on 7 of 14 (50%). The only real weak spot was at tight end, but we got really good results at QB, RB, and WR. Here are last week’s recommended plays:
Quarterback
Drew Lock - HIT - 248 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. Trust the process, baby!!! You take a crummy QB like Lock, you slot him into your lineup when he has a matchup against an underperforming Chargers secondary, and he delivers. I’m absolutely geeked about this call, because I really don’t think the player is good, but the analytics suggested he was a good play this week. And oh boy, was he ever! Kudos to those of you who had the stones to play him this week.
Nick Foles - HIT - 272 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Look, it wasn’t pretty, and it took OT to get there. But at the end of the day you got a useful performance out of Foles. Hopefully you didn’t have to watch it, because if you did, you were probably on tilt for a few hours. But hey, the end result is what we care about.
Jimmy Garoppolo - MISS - 84 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Garoppolo got off to a slow start in this one, then exited the game after re-aggravating his high ankle sprain. Nick Mullens came on in relief and put up 238 yards and 2 scores. The process was good here - combined, the QBs had over 300 yards passing and 2 touchdowns - but unless you get points for Team QB, this recommendation was not helpful to you.
Running Back
Ja’Mycal Hasty - HIT - 12 carries, 29 yards, TD; 1 reception for 2 yards. The overall stat line is underwhelming, but the touchdown saved you. At this point in the year, if you’re picking up a desperation play at running back and he scores, you’re happy.
Gus Edwards - HIT - 16 for 87, TD; 0 for 0. He received just as many touches as fellow RB J.K. Dobbins, but he’s the one who scored. This was a very satisfying day for those who picked up Edwards.
La’Mical Perine - MISS - 8 for 27; 2 for 6. It’s concerning that he’s still receiving fewer carries than Frank Gore. Adam Gase has got to go.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis - HIT - 8 receptions, 128 yards, TD. Davis was a target hog in this one, pulling down 8 of 10 targets against a beat-up Bengals secondary. He got the better of them, but the Bengals pulled down the W. You have to be thrilled to get over 100 yards and a score out of a waiver wire freebie.
Mecole Hardman - HIT - 7 for 96, TD. Whooooo!!! Hardman was featured early and often, and he caught the first of Patrick Mahomes’ 5 touchdowns in this offensive onslaught. As an added bonus, his nine targets were three more than any other Kansas City wide receiver. Maybe Andy Reid will finally realize what a weapon he has in Hardman and give him more consistent targets.
Sterling Shepard - HIT - 8 for 74. He was worth nearly 12 points in a standard fantasy league. That’s a useful bye week fill-in or flex play.
Preston Williams - MISS - 2 for 15. It’s an underwhelming stat line, but Williams actually led all Dolphins receivers in targets in Tua Tagovailoa’s debut. Better days are ahead. They may not be in 2020, but better days are ahead.
Denzel Mims - MISS - 2 for 42. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that he led all Jets in receiving yardage. But it wasn’t enough to help you today. It’s also concerning that he saw only 3 targets, compared to 11 for WR Braxton Berrios and 8 for WR Jeff Smith.
Tight End
Richard Rodgers - MISS - 0 for 0. Rodgers wasn’t targeted in what had to be the most unwatchable NFL game this season. I can’t fathom why the NFL schedule makers thought Eagles-Cowboys would be a better primetime matchup than Ravens-Steelers.
Greg Olsen - MISS - 0 for 0. Olsen did not come down with any of his four targets. He’s safely droppable across all formats.
Drew Sample - MISS - 0 for 0. This was a big miss. Sample was targeted only once. It just wasn’t a day where the Bengals featured their tight ends, despite the Titans’ struggles in defending that position, because the Bengals led for the entire game.
We did predict in last week’s column that it was going to be an ugly week at tight end, but that’s still no excuse. We’ve got to do better.
And now the Hail Marys for Week 9:
Quarterbacks
Drew Lock, Broncos (9% owned). Hey, if he delivered for us against the Chargers, why can’t he deliver for us against the Falcons, who are the friendliest defense in the NFL against opposing passers? Yeah, I know they just held Teddy Bridgewater in check. But Bridgewater is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and really isn’t any better than a backup level talent. Lock isn’t even an average starting quarterback at this point, but he’s better than backup-level Bridgewater.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (28%). The Lions are middle-of-the-pack against the pass, and there aren’t a whole lot of options this week. View Cousins as a middle-of-the-road streamer.
Nick Foles, Bears (9%). The Bears play the Titans, who are bottom-10 in the league against the pass. Tenth, actually. But again, it’s not a great week for streamers when Lock is the top guy. If you picked up Lock or Foles last week, you’re probably rolling with them again this week.
Running Back
Gus Edwards, Ravens (30%). His ownership percentage is sure to go up after a solid Week 8, and he has a tough Colts defense on tap in Week 9 (top 5 against the run), but we’re at the point in the season where anyone seeing a decent touch volume is a viable streamer.
J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (26%). I’m back on the McKissic train. Aside from a clunker in Week 7, he’s been a reliable source of receptions. He’s a decent floor play, and has a date with the Giants’ bottom 10 rush defense in Week 9. The Giants are playing on a short week, whereas the Footballers are coming off a bye. I respectfully submit that favors the Footballers.
Wayne Gallman, Giants (23%). On the opposite side of the Footballers will be the Giants this week, and Gallman is now the starter for the G-Men. He’s probably got Frank Gore-level upside - which is to say, not much. View him like Gore; you’re hoping for around 60 yards, and if he gets a TD, that’s just gravy.
WIde Receiver
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (30%). His ownership is sure to skyrocket after a stellar Week 8. And who knows if he’ll repeat against the Panthers, who are among the top 5 teams against opposing wide receivers. It’s hard for wide receivers to put up fantasy points against the Panthers. But I’ll take my chances with Patrick Mahomes.
Tim Patrick, Broncos (19%). He was out with an injury in Week 8, so pay attention to the injury report; he’s obviously not a recommended play if he’s not suiting up. But if Drew Lock is our top QB streamer this week, we would be remiss if we failed to include Patrick as a top waiver wire play.
Preston Williams, Dolphins (21%). I keep recommending Williams and he keeps burning me, so make of that what you will. But because he led all Dolphins wideouts in Tua Tagovailoa’s first start, I’m willing to stick with him for at least another week. Devante Parker is likely to draw coverage from Patrick Peterson this week, which should free up looks for Williams on the other side.
Darnell Mooney, Bears (6%). Mooney continues to see a consistent target volume, having received 5 or more targets every week since Week 3. He had a season high five receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown in Week 8, so his role continues to grow in this offense. He has a relatively soft matchup against the Titans secondary in Week 9. And, ya know, we’re recommending Nick Foles, so….
Tight End
Jordan Akins, Texans (2%). He’s been out with a concussion, so pay attention to the injury report to see whether he suits up. If he plays, he’s an ideal plug-and-play starter because Deshaun Watson loves targeting his tight end in the red zone. If he’s out, it’s back to the Darren Fells train.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (2%). The Bucs have a soft matchup against the Saints (second-worst against the tight end), and it just feels like he’s due.
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts (3%). Alie-Cox returned from injury on Sunday and received 4 targets in a game where the Colts easily cruised to victory. He’ll probably be even more involved in Week 9 against the Ravens, especially since Baltimore does such a good job shutting down their opponents’ wide receivers.