Weekly Hail Mary: Week 12
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Week 11 yielded respectable results, as we hit on 4 of 9 (44%). We have continued to struggle at tight end, as most players with a pulse are already rostered. Here’s a recap of last week’s calls:
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins - HIT - 314 yards, 3 TD. Sometimes facing the Cowboys defense is the cure for what ails ya. Cousins really delivered here.
Joe Flacco - HIT - 205 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Flacco was entirely useful in this one, tossing a couple touchdowns against a Charger defense that has been generous to opposing passers.
Alex Smith - MISS - 166 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. This was a weird game. Washington took the air out of the ball following Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. The Footballers had 34 rushes compared to only 25 passes over the course of the game, which helps explain Smith’s subpar stat line. You can’t predict injuries, and I suspect Smith would have been asked to pass quite a bit more had Burrow not left the game injured. Once QB Ryan Finley entered in relief of Burrow, there was no danger of Cincinnati putting any more points on the board, which allowed Washington to be more conservative in its play-calling.
Jameis Winston - REMOVED - The notes indicated that you should not consider Winston as a streamer if Taysom Hill was announced as the starter. Taysom Hill was announced as the starter.
Running Back
Salvon Ahmed - HIT - 12 rushes for 43 yards; 5 catches for 31 yards. He had about 10 fantasy points, which is RB2 territory these days.
LaMical Perine - MISS - 8 for 33; 0 for 0. So much for Adam Gase’s commitment to Perine as the lead back. Frank Gore received more than twice as many touches. It’s like Gase is TRYING to get fired.
Wide Receiver
Breshad Perriman - HIT - 2 catches for 54 yards, TD. Like with many recommended streamers this year, the touchdown saved you, but it was a useful performance out of the former first round pick.
Jalen Reagor - MISS - 4 for 52. Reagor wasn’t terrible in this one, catching 80% of his targets, but he just didn’t do enough with them to move the needle. He didn’t goose egg you, but it just wasn’t enough for you to have felt good about the start.
Mecole Hardman - MISS - 1 for 16. You never know when Hardman is going to go off. This was not one of those games.
Tight End
Drew Sample - MISS - 2 for 29. Joe Burrow went to Sample on the first or second pass of the game, and then he wasn’t targeted much thereafter. It was genuinely surprising that he didn’t see more looks after Burrow went out, considering Ryan Finley’s inability to push the ball down the field.
Kyle Rudolph - REMOVED - You were cautioned to start him only for as long as Irv Smith was out. Smith returned to the lineup on Sunday, which removed Rudolph from streamer consideration.
And now, the Hail Marys for Week 12:
Quarterback
Daniel Jones, Giants (28%). The G-Men travel to Cincinnati on Sunday to face a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. The Bengals look completely uninspired football on Sunday after losing Burrow, and there’s no reason to expect they’ll rally behind the joke of a QB that is Ryan Finley. My only concern here is that the Giants may get up big early and commit to the run, which would limit Jones’ upside.
Alex Smith, Washington Football Team (10%). Sometimes facing the Cowboys defense is the cure for what ails ya. Smith faces off against Dallas in the 4:30 matchup on Turkey Day.
Gardner Minshew II, Jaguars (13%). Look, this is all health dependent. But after Jake Luton’s 4-INT, 0-TD performance in Week 11, you’d assume Doug Marrone is eager to get MInshew back under center. They play Cleveland on Sunday, which is a so-so matchup, but Minshew can likely do enough with his legs to be a back-end QB1.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins (4%). As of right now, Brian Flores is saying Tua Tagovailoa will be the starter in Week 12. So ignore this recommendation if Tua is going to start. This recommendation is wholly contingent upon Fitzmagic starting. If he does start, he has a tasty matchup against the Jets, who are a bottom-five defense against opposing fantasy passers. He’s the top streamer of the week if he starts. I don’t feel the same way about Tua if he’s the starter.
Running Back
Gus Edwards, Ravens (29%). With the news that J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram are on the COVID list - and not enough days for five negative tests before Thursday night’s game against the Steelers - this is shaping up to be the Gus Edwards show. Time to climb aboard the Gus Bus; no other waiver wire pickup is likely to see this type of volume.
Frank Gore, Jets (10%). No, I don’t feel good about this recommendation. Yes, this is a floor play. But at this point in the season, if you’re desperate, you’re looking for volume, and that’s what Gore gets. He’s a near-lock for 15 or more touches, but he’ll only turn it into around 60 yards.
Cam Akers, Rams (30%). This is more a bet on talent than workload. Hopefully, sooner or later, Sean McVay will realize that Akers is the most talented back he has, and commit to him. But you could also have a game here where he sees 5 carries for 15 yards, especially given the tough matchup with the 49ers.
Wide Receiver
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (28%). For the third week in a row, Reagor makes the streamers list. This week, he gets the Seahawks, who are the friendliest team in the NFL to opposing fantasy wideouts.
Denzel Mims, Jets (5%). Mims has seen 7 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games, and at least 8 in both of the last two. His usage is trending up, and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out.
Tim Patrick, Broncos (21%). Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are bigger names, but it is Patrick who is the biggest producer. He already has three 100-yard games on the season.
N’Keal Harry, Patriots (8%). This is only a lukewarm recommendation, but Harry did see 8 targets against the Texans, which was his second highest total of the year.
Kendall Hinton, Broncos (0%). [Added prior to kickoff on Sunday morning.] Hinton is a practice squad WR who is serving as the Broncos quarterback on Sunday since all of the other QBs are on the COVID list. I do NOT recommend playing him at QB, but if he has WR eligibility in your league, you should pick him up and stream him. He’s basically a cheat code, as he should get passing and rushing numbers while playing under center. He’s likely to give you low end QB numbers, which translates to above average WR numbers.
Tight End
Jordan Reed, 49ers (14%). We’ve seen this guy be successful in the past, and he’s playing for a team that has a history of featuring the tight end (at least when George Kittle was healthy). I’d feel better about starting him than most of the other scrubs on the waiver wire.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (6%). [Added 11/26.] Irv Smith has been missing practice due to injury and Adam Thielen is on the COVID list (though it may have been a false positive). If either or both miss this game, it should lead to an uptick in targets for Rudolph.
No other tight end streamers this week. It’s ugly out there.