Weekly Hail Mary: Week 13
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we have been keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Week 12 yielded results right in line with our target, as we hit on 4 of 12 (33%). This was a particularly brutal week at wide receiver, but we started getting it right again at tight end. Here’s a recap of last week’s calls:
Quarterback
Ryan FItzpatrick - HIT - 257 yards, 2 TD; 3 carries for 10 yards. The dude can take advantage of plus matchups. We pegged him as the “top streamer of the week,” hitching our wagon to Fitzy whereas most supposed “experts” were promoting Derek Carr, whom we didn’t recommend at all. I get it that Carr got to face Atlanta, but I’m not ever going to rely on Derek Carr when a playoff spot is on the line. Sign me up for Fitzy and his YOLO balls all day, baby! (You got burned really, really badly if you trusted advice from other sites and started Carr.)
Daniel Jones - MISS - 213 yards; 6 for 19. I should probably get a mulligan on this since Jones missed about half of this game with injury. All things considered, he gave you a little bit, but still not enough to be competitive. The lack of touchdowns really hurts.
Alex Smith - MISS - 149 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 3 for 1. If you had told me before the game that Washington would score 40+ points, I would have doubled down on my recommendation of Smith. Regrettably, it was mostly ground-and-pound for the Football Team on Thanksgiving. Smith did toss a touchdown to Logan Thomas, so he didn’t totally ghost you, but it wasn’t a good output given their lofty point total.
Gardner Minshew - REMOVED - Minshew was recommended only if he was healthy, which he wasn’t. He was inactive Sunday, so he was removed as a recommended play.
Running Back
Frank Gore - HIT - 18 rushes for 74 yards; 3 catches for 12 yards. We always note that Gore is a floor play, who is a lock for 15 touches and about 60 yards. If that’s what you were expecting based on our recommendation, then you’re ecstatic, because he outperformed those tempered expectations.
Cam Akers - HIT - 9 for 84, TD. Although Akers did not lead the team in rushes (that honor belonged to Darrell Henderson), he was clearly the team’s best back on the day. He was the only back to score, and his 84 yards rushing were more than 60 yards more than Henderson and Malcolm Brown combined. He averaged 9.3 yards per carry, and no other Rams’ back averaged more than 1.9. He should be the guy moving forward based on both talent and production, but who knows if the light bulb has yet gone on for Sean McVay. It seems obvious to the rest of us that Akers is the best back they have. I’m not sure why McVay continues to try to outsmart the room.
Gus Edwards - DELAYED - The game has been pushed back to Wednesday, December 2.
Wide Receiver
Denzel Mims - MISS - 4 receptions for 67 yards. Not a horrible game, and still the most targeted Jet, but all in all it’s not a terribly useful stat line. He has yet to exceed 100 yards or find the end zone.
Tim Patrick - MISS - 0 for 0. Hey, he led the team in targets - does that count for something? To be honest, I meant to remove Patrick as a streamer once it was announced that Kendall Hinton would be the starter, so this one is on me. That’s what I get for making last minute adjustments from a tree stand.
N’Keal Harry - MISS - 0 for 0. Woof. Sorry about this one. Cam Newton looks cooked as a passer. He threw for only 84 yards in this game.
Kendall Hinton - MISS - 1 pass for 13 yards, 2 INT; 2 carries for 7 yards. Lesson learned. It’s a bad idea to put a player into your starting lineup who has never played an NFL snap and is being called up from the practice squad to play a position that he hasn’t played full time since his freshman year of college. Bad process here, and we just take this as an opportunity to learn and get better.
Jalen Reagor - MISS - 3 receptions for 11 yards. I think this stat line is more an indictment of Carson Wentz than Reagor, but we’ll see. He did lead all Eagles’ WRs in targets, so our process wasn’t bad - they were looking to get him involved - but the results just weren’t there. For those that watched the game, Doug Pederson looked overmatched as a play-caller. Better days are surely ahead for Reagor.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph - HIT - 7 for 68. We’re back in the positive column with tight end recommendations! With Adam Thielen missing the game, Rudolph was, as expected, significantly more involved. He was second on the team in targets behind only Justin Jefferson.
Jordan Reed - MISS - 2 for 18. The process was good here, but the results just weren’t there. The 49ers made a concerted effort to get Reed involved - he was the most targeted 49er not named Deebo Samuel - but he just wasn’t able to haul in enough of those targets.
And now the Hail Marys for Week 13:
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (20%/25%). Whomever is starting for the Fins, fire ‘em up against the hapless Bengals. I like Fitzy’s potential for a big game a little bit more, but either should be a viable streamer.
Gardner Minshew, Jaguars (12%). Like last week, this recommendation is based on the assumption that he’s healthy enough to start. If he’s not, ignore this play. But if active, he has a very favorable matchup against the Vikings, who are beatable through the air.
Nick Mullens, 49ers (4%). It’s always a gamble starting Mullens, but he has a primetime matchup on Monday Night Football against a Bills defense that gives up points to just about everybody.
Running Back
Frank Gore, Jets (25%). Come on. You knew this was coming. Gore continues to see volume, and he has a soft matchup against Las Vegas’ run defense, which is one of the five most favorable for opposing fantasy runners. Like usual, you’re expecting about 60 yards and hoping for more. The quintessential floor play.
Cam Akers, Rams (29%). Simply because I believe in Akers’ talent more than the other two backs on his team. Sooner or later Sean McVay is going to unleash this guy - let’s just hope it’s in 2020.
Wide Receiver
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (29%). Just continuing our trend of repeating a bunch of the names from last week. Reagor is a starting receiver on a semi-functional offense, so he has value. The matchup against Green Bay is a tough one - especially if he gets the Jaire Alexander treatment - but the opportunity is enough to warrant starting him here. Plus, I think this game could be a high scoring affair, which adds to Reagor’s appeal.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers (25%). On the opposite side of this game is Valdes-Scantling, who has emerged as the Packers’ primary deep threat. The Eagles’ secondary has been a sieve for years, and it wouldn’t be surprised to see him get loose for a long score here.
Breshad Perriman, Jets (12%). May as well continue the theme of long-score specialists (and Henry Ruggs and Mecole Hardman are out there as well if they’re more your cup of tea). Against the Raiders, having just come off a game where the Jets failed to score a touchdown, I think the Jets are going to be aggressive in this one.
Tight End
Jordan Reed, 49ers (25%). We are doubling down on Reed, who has a tasty matchup against the Bills (bottom-3 against the tight end) on Monday Night Football. He could be the final piece to propel you to a win in Week 13.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (14%). Like last week, this recommendation is contingent upon the health of his teammates. If Irv Smith suits up, ignore this recommendation. But if he remains out, Rudolph should be a useful tight end streamer since he’ll be expected to see all of the tight end targets.
This will be the last column of the season, as Week 13 marks the last week of the regular season for most leagues. If our site has been helpful to you at all, please share it with your friends! We will be back sporadically in the offseason with reflections on 2020 and insights for 2021. Stay healthy and safe out there, and best of luck in the fantasy playoffs!