Weekly Hail Mary: Week 8
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we crushed it (again!), hitting on 8 of 14 (57%). Here are last week’s recommended plays:
Quarterback
Kyle Allen - HIT - 194 yards passing, 2 TD. Not the most awesome stat line in the world, but useful nonetheless. Allen was the ideal game-manager in this one, taking care of the football and tossing a couple TDs. He got cheated out of an early touchdown to Terry McLaurin (the TD was reversed on review), so he should have had an even bigger day.
Derek Carr - HIT - 284 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 2 carries for 19 yards. You wish the INT wasn’t there, but the rushing yards essentially negate it. Carr turns in a useful performance against a stout Tampa Bay defense.
Andy Dalton - MISS - 75 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Dalton was knocked out of this game in the third quarter with a concussion, but I’m taking the loss anyway because he was playing terribly before he was injured. With their top 3 offensive linemen out and now down to their third string quarterback, you can safely fade the Dallas offense.
Running Back
Boston Scott - HIT - 12 carries for 46 yards; 3 catches for 46 yards, TD. 92 all-purpose yards and a score out of a replacement player? Giddy up!
Giovani Bernard - HIT - 13 for 37; 5 for 59, TD. Bernard was a late addition to the column on Saturday after it was announced that Joe Mixon was ruled out for Week 7’s contest. He produced a stellar stat line, with nearly 100 yards from scrimmage and a receiving score.
Frank Gore - HIT - 11 for 60. Is this a good stat line? No. Is it exactly what I told you that you would get out of Gore? Yes. Here’s what I wrote about Gore in last week’s column: “If you start Gore, you’re expecting 60 yards from scrimmage and probably no scores. He a true desperation floor play.” Yup. Nailed it.
JaMycal Hasty - HIT - 9 for 57; 1 for 16. Wow, we didn’t see this game script coming. Jeff Wilson got the bulk of the carries and exploded for three touchdowns, while Hasty played second fiddle. Kyle Shanahan continues to confound fantasy managers. Still, if you were choosing between Hasty and Frank Gore, you got slightly more production out of Hasty, with 73 total yards. Not a tremendous stat line by any means, but he didn’t goose you. With Wilson picking up an injury in the game, Hasty may continue to be a low-end flex play - but all that could go out the window if Tevin Coleman returns next week.
J.D. McKissic - MISS - 5 for 35; 2 for 16. Fellow running back Antonio Gibson was just more involved than anticipated in this one, which cut into McKissic’s workload. Plus, with Washington having a big lead for most of the game, we weren’t seeing the play-from-behind game script that we’re accustomed to seeing that results in short dump-offs to McKissic out of the backfield. He’ll likely return to being a useful flex play in Week 9, since the Footballers have a bye in Week 8.
Wide Receiver
Travis Fulgham - HIT - 5 receptions for 73 yards. His touchdown streak came to an end, but Fulgham still gave you a useful-enough stat line on his 11 targets.
Tim Patrick - MISS - 3 for 44. Patrick’s amazing run came to an end yesterday. The silver lining, if there is any, is that no Broncos WR saw more targets than he did - but he saw only four. Drew Lock was more comfortable targeting the tight ends in this one.
Darnell Mooney - MISS - 3 for 40. Good process, bad results. Mooney actually led Chicago in targets with 7, so he could have had a bigger day. But the Rams defense was just fantastic in this one. Better days are ahead for Mooney.
Tight End
Drew Sample - HIT - 5 for 52. Not a sexy stat line by any means, but again, this is the sort of thing that passes for a low-end TE1 these days. If you picked him up off the waiver wire, you’re probably content with the production, especially in a PPR league.
Ian Thomas - MISS - 1 for 11. As I led off the Thomas recommendation: “Warning: Every time I recommend Thomas, he posts a goose egg. This is a very lukewarm endorsement. I don’t like the player, at all. I think he’s a backup-level talent.” So, I mean, he kinda proved me right. Don’t ever start Ian Thomas.
Greg Olsen - MISS - 2 for 18. Ugh. I’m tilting my face off on this one. Olsen had a touchdown grab during the Sunday Night Football game for all the world to see, but it was reversed on review. That one play is the difference between a hit and a miss on this call. Get your feet in bounds, Gregory!
And now the Hail Marys for Week 8:
Quarterbacks
Nick Foles, Bears (10% owned). Foles has a home date against a New Orleans defense that is among the top-5 friendliest against opposing passers. The last time he faced a defense that poorly ranked (Week 3 against Atlanta), he threw three touchdowns. He’ll also have favorable matchups in Weeks 9 and 10 (Tennessee and Minnesota), so if you pick him up as a streamer for Week 8 you’ll likely be able to use him in Weeks 9 and 10, as well.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (30%). It’s always risky starting players in intra-divisional games - anecdotally, it just feels like those games are always more of a wild card - but Jimmy G has a date with the Seahawks in Seattle, who are 2nd-worst in the league against opposing passers. Assuming he’s healthy enough to go, he should be able to put up a decent stat line against the Sea Chickens.
Drew Lock, Broncos (9%). I’ll admit, I have some trepidation about recommending a guy who can’t stay on the field, and who hasn’t really wowed us even when he has. But Lock has a soft matchup against a Chargers secondary that likes to play a lot of zone, so Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler should find some room to work. Lock also faces the Falcons the following week, who are the most favorable defense in the NFL for opposing passes, so like Foles, this is a streamer you might be able to use in back-to-back weeks.
Running Back
Ja’Mycal Hasty, 49ers (21%). We’re going back to the well on this one. If Jeff Wilson is out and Tevin Coleman doesn’t return, it should be the Ja’Mycal Hasty show against the Seahawks. He’s been productive with limited touches, so hopefully he can deliver a healthy stat line once he’s receiving the lion’s share of the RB work.
La’Mical Perine, Jets (16%). He saw just as many rushes as Frank Gore on Sunday, and was also involved in the passing game. Also, it was he, not Gore, who scored the rushing TD. The Jets’ season is going nowhere, so they have every incentive to give a long look at their fourth round pick to see what he can do.
Gus Edwards, Ravens (6%). If Mark Ingram is still out with an ankle injury, Edwards should split carries with rookie J.K. Dobbins, and is the better bet to handle early-down and goal-line work.
It’s an ugly week for running back. We’ve reached the point in the season where there isn’t much on the waiver wire. That’s not uncommon for this time of year, as we’ve reached the halfway point in the season, and most running backs with a pulse are rostered. It will only get more difficult from here on out for us to identify potentially useful players, barring injuries. It’s hard to find bell cows, but we may be able to identify guys who are getting more involved in the passing game (e.g., J.D. McKissic, who is on bye this week), who can at least give us a floor as a flex play.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis, Titans (27%). Cincinnati’s pass defense is atrocious and getting worse. They just blew their game against Cleveland in the final moments by giving up a long bomb TD to Donovan Peoples-Jones. (Who? Exactly.) Cincinnati is going to focus all their defensive attention on stopping the Big Dog and AJ Brown, which means all Davis has to do is beat one-on-one coverage from a scrub corner. Easy enough.
Preston Williams, Dolphins (21%). It’s Tua Tagovailoa’s first game under center, which gives me pause. But fellow WR Devante Parker should be the one who draws coverage from star corner Jalen Ramsey, which means Williams is the one who is more likely to be frequently targeted in this game.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (33%). The lottery ticket of all lottery tickets. He’s either going to give you a long score or a goose egg. The Chiefs face the Jets on Sunday, and you may not have heard, but the Jets ain’t all that this year.
Sterling Shepard, Giants (28%). Golden Tate got the headlines with the long score, but it was Shepard who was the more targeted receiver. He offers a relatively safe PPR floor, even with a tough Monday night matchup on tap against the Buccaneers this week.
Denzel Mims, Jets (4%). In his NFL debut, Mims paced the team in targets with 7, which was a 30% target share. That bodes well for the future. His role is only likely to continue to grow as the season progresses.
Tight End
Greg Olsen, Seahawks (19%). It’s the whole “start Russell Wilson’s tight ends” thing. Although the matchup against the 49ers isn’t terribly favorable, the Seahawks’ offense is essentially matchup-proof.
Richard Rodgers, Eagles (8%). This is a recommendation only if Dallas Goedert is still out, but Rodgers quietly lead Philly in receiving last Thursday night. In Week 8, they square off against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the Cowboys are middle-of-the-pack defending the tight end.
Drew Sample, Bengals (2%). The Titans are in the bottom fourth of the league in allowing fantasy points to opposing tight ends, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sample post a stat line similar to what he produced against the Browns in Week 7.
(Also an ugly week at tight end. What can ya do?)