Weekly Hail Mary: Week 5
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we hit on 5 of 13 (38%). It was a rough week at quarterback and a really rough week at running back, but we had decent returns at wide receiver and tight end. Here are last week’s recommendations:
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick - HIT - 315 yards passing, 0 TD; 2 INT; 47 yards rushing, 1 rush TD. It’s close, but I’m taking the W here. The two picks are undesirable, but are offset by Fitzy’s rushing yards. The rushing TD is worth more than a passing TD in most leagues, and was supplemented by the 315 passing yards. If you streamed Fitzmagic, you likely didn’t get as many points as you had hoped, but he didn’t wet the bed, either. He gave you enough of a performance to keep you competitive in your matchup.
Kirk Cousins - MISS - 260 yards, 1 TD. Very mediocre game for Cousins. The Vikings put up a ton of points, but most came on the ground.
Nick Mullens - MISS - 200 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. The process was good here - the Eagles are bad against the pass - but the result was subpar because Mullens got yanked after throwing a pick-six. If you combine his passing stats with his replacement ,C.J. Beathard’s, you get a 335 yard passing day, which is much more palatable, and along the lines of what we were hoping for.
Jeff Driskel - REMOVED - The editor’s note from 9/30 explained that Driskel was being removed because Brett Rypien had been named as the starter.
Running Backs
Jeff Wilson, Jr. - MISS - 3 carries for 6 yards; 1 catch for 13 yards. He was an afterthought in this gameplan. This was all the Jerick McKinnon show.
Chris Thompson - MISS - No stat line. Bad whiff here. Not sure why Thompson wasn’t involved, as the Jags were down for most of this game.
La’Mical Perine - MISS - 5 for 15; 0 TD. He was only a lukewarm endorsement, but he was endorsed nonetheless. He can be safely dropped with Le’Veon Bell anticipated to return in Week 5.
Carlos Hyde - REMOVED - Hyde was ruled out before the game with a knee injury.
Wide Receivers
Tre’Quan Smith - HIT - 4 for 54; 2 TD. You’re welcome! Michael Thomas or no, the big slot role in New Orleans has value, as that’s where the touchdowns are funneled.
Justin Jefferson - HIT - 4 for 103. Jefferson spent the afternoon picking up chunk plays. You’re never going to complain when you get 100 yards from a waiver wire pickup.
Preston Williams - MISS - 1 for 15. Process was good here; Williams just wasn’t targeted all that much for some reason. Is it possible he’s nursing an injury?
Tee Higgins - MISS - 4 for 77. Higgins continues to establish himself as a focal point for the Bengals offense, but this was a day where it was all about Joe Mixon and the running game. Higgins was second on the team in targets, though, which is promising for his future prospects.
James Washington - REMOVED - The Steelers game was delayed until Week 7 due to the COVID outbreak experienced by the Titans, their opponent.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz - HIT - 4 for 72; TD. Schultz has become what Blake Jarwin was supposed to be.
Mo Alie-Cox - HIT - 1 for 13; TD. Hey, maybe it’s fluky, but you’ll take the touchdown.
Drew Sample - MISS - 3 for 47. Burrow continues to look Sample’s way in the passing game (likely because defenses leave him open since he’s not a threat), and Sample continues to squander opportunities. He did get a red zone look in this one, but predictably dropped the pass. He’s not a very good football player right now.
Eric Ebron - REMOVED - The Pittsburgh/Tennessee game was postponed.
And now for the Hail Marys for Week 5:
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones, Giants (34% owned). He’s right on the threshold of what qualifies for this list, so we’re listing him, as he’s probably available in your league. This is the first game of the season where you can feel good starting Jones. He is going up against Dallas, and every quarterback has embarrassed Dallas’ “cornerbacks” this year. I’m hoping for big games out of Darius Slayton and Golden Tate, assuming Tate isn’t suspended from his fight with Jalen Ramsey.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (29%). If you picked him up to start him in Week 4 against Houston, keep him. The Vikings have a date with the Seahawks, and every non-Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterback has torched the Seahawks.
Teddy Bridgewater, Panthers (19%). The Falcons are having trouble stopping anyone. Be confident in firing up any quarterback facing them.
Jimmy Garoppolo (31%)/Nick Mullens (10%)/C.J. Beathard (0%), 49ers. Whomever gets the start in Week 5 against the Dolphins is a worthy streamer, as the Dolphins among the top 5 teams in fantasy points given to opposing QBs.
Running Backs
Damien Harris, NE (29%). With Sony Michel’s injury, the reins have officially been turned over to Damien Harris in Foxboro, as he was pulled off of IR before Monday’s game against the Chiefs. He’s likely to be the early-down ball-carrier for the immediate future, given his 100-yard performance against the reigning world champs. Dress appropriately, folks - it’s Damien Harris SZN!
Darrel Williams, KC (11%). The Chiefs face off against the Raiders in Week 5, who sport the worst defense in the NFL against opposing rushers for fantasy purposes. Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire is certainly the back to own in the KC offense, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Williams get in on the fun this week.
D’Ernest Johnson, CLE (3%). With the Chubber out for the foreseeable future, someone is going to have to step up and split the workload with Kareem Hunt. He had 13 carries for 95 yards against the Cowboys on Sunday and is likely to be a hot waiver-wire pickup.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate, Giants (35%). Like Jones, this is a bit of a cheat due to his ownership percentage, but it’s close enough that I would be negligent if I didn’t mention him. Assuming he’s not suspended from the Jalen Ramsey fight, he’s in a great position to feast against the Cowboys’ soft secondary in Week 5.
Laviska Shenault, Jaguars (24%). What more does this guy have to do to get fantasy managers’ attention? He’s the #2 option in the passing game, and he is consistently receiving carries out of the backfield.
Isaiah Ford, Dolphins (1%). Believe it or not, Ford is actually seeing a decent number of targets. He had 10 on Sunday, and has averaged 7 over the past 3 weeks. If you’re truly in dire straits, you could certainly do worse, though he’s likely only a floor play.
TIght Ends
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts (33%). Last chance. Facing Cleveland this week and coming off three straight games with either 100 yards or a score. Sooner or later someone in your league is gonna wise up and make him their every-week starter. Might as well be you.
Jordan Akins, Texans (13%). He’s seeing a decent target volume and the schedule is finally starting to loosen up for Houston. They play Jacksonville in Week 5, and the Jaguars give up the third-most points to the tight end.
Ian Thomas, Panthers (2%). He’s coming off a touchdown, and everyone scores against Atlanta. Even Jimmy Graham. (Twice!)
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (0%). O.J. Howard was lost for the season due to an Achilles injury on Sunday, and Brate scored on his only catch of the day. We’ve seen him have success in the past - he caught 6 or more touchdowns every year from 2016-2018 - and he’s slotted for a bigger role now that Howard is out of the picture. Especially with Chris Godwin still ailing, and Mike Evans battling through injuries of his own, there could be opportunities for Tampa Bay’s pass-catchers. Oh, and that Brady guy has shown in the past that he can make effective use of the tight end. Tampa Bay is playing at Chicago on a short week this week, but the Bears are only middle-of-the-pack against tight ends; the matchup isn’t quite as daunting as it otherwise might seem. Mo Alie-Cox scored on these dudes; why can’t Brate?