Weekly Hail Mary: Week 4
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we hit on 4 of 14 (29%). Not quite what we’re looking for, but we were also hit hard by the injury bug, which skewed the results a bit. Here are last week’s recommendations:
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew - MISS - 30 for 42, 275 yards, INT; 3 carries for 22 yards. Minshew struggled his way to a one-turnover, zero-touchdown game against one of the league’s worst defenses. To make matters worse, it was in prime time on Thursday Night Football, so everyone in your league saw it. The lesson here: We need to pay more attention when a QB’s key weapons are ruled out prior to the game. Minshew played without star WR D.J. Chark in this one, and with all due respect to Laviska Shenault, the Jags simply lack any other major threats in the passing game right now.
Philip Rivers - MISS - 17 for 21 for 217 yards, TD. Rivers wasn’t bad in this game. It’s just that his team built a huge lead on the strength of two defensive scores against the hapless Jets, so Rivers wasn’t asked to do much. He didn’t hurt you if you started him, but he didn’t help you much, either.
Mitch Trubisky - MISS - Dude ended up getting benched in the second half despite a soft matchup, and then Nick Foles came in and won the game. Sorry, folks. This was just a bad call.
[Frankly, I’m surprised we’ve been so bad at streaming quarterbacks so far this season. Typically, quarterbacks are the easiest position to predict. I suspect our hit rate at this position will improve considerably as the season goes along.]
Running Backs
Mike Davis - HIT - 13 carries for 46 yards; 8 catches for 45 yards, TD. Davis was everything you’d want him to be as a free agent pickup. 90+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown, plus eight catches? He was a valuable PPR asset this week, doing his best Christian McCaffrey impression.
Jerick McKinnon - HIT - 14 carries for 38 yards, TD; 3 catches for 39 yards. Jet McKinnon received more carries and more targets than any other Niners’ running back. He’s the lead dog in a clear timeshare, but it’s a timeshare for a head coach that has a track record of productive rushing offenses. If you started him as your RB2 or Flex this week, you’re tickled. And you’re welcome.
Frank Gore - HIT - 15 carries for 57 yards; 1 catch for 5 yards. I’m taking credit for this stat line only because he’s been recommended on this site solely as a safe floor play in your Flex spot. You’re getting about 60 yards a week out of the ageless wonder.
Dion Lewis - REMOVED - 1 carry, 0 yards; 1 reception, 10 yards. Lewis was a recommended play prior to the signing of Devonta Freeman. After Freeman was signed, there was an editor’s note placed on the original article noting that Lewis was being removed as a recommended play due to the Freeman signing. Always check back for updates to the article on Sunday morning.
Wide Receivers
Russell Gage - MISS - 2 catches for 26 yards. With Julio Jones missing the game, Gage received only 3 looks after receiving at least 9 targets in each of the first two games. However, this was predominantly due to Gage being knocked out of the game with a concussion. Some sites would list it as a “push” when a player is knocked out with injury, but not here. We’re taking the L, because if you played him on our advice, you’re still stuck with his crummy final stat line, and you don’t get a mulligan just because he got injured. We’re taking the loss with you.
Michael Pittman - MISS - 3 catches for 26 yards. Same explanation as Gage. Pittman was knocked out part of this game with injury, and early reports are that he will be out of action through at least the Week 8 bye. But even if he hadn’t gotten hurt, the Colts didn’t really need to pass much in this one, as they were dominating the Jets with their defense. Philip Rivers threw only 21 passes in this game.
Chase Claypool - MISS - 1 catch for 24 yards. To be fair, I done told y’all that Claypool was a risky play, and was not seeing the target volume to suggest he’s a safe option. He didn’t hit the big play this week. But more opportunities could be coming, as teammate Diontae Johnson was knocked out of the game with a concussion. James Washington seemed to be the early beneficiary of Johnson’s absence, though, as he led the team in catches and targets, so he may be a safer play moving forward.
KJ Hamler - MISS - 3 catches for 30 yards; 1 rush for -2 yards. This was the Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant show for the Broncos passing game, and the team as a whole really couldn’t get anything going, scoring 10 measly points against the Bucs.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas - MISS - 4 catches for 31 yards. I think the process was good here, the results just weren’t there this week. Thomas was the most-targeted player on the team aside from Terry McLaurin, but it was Dontrelle Inman who came up with the two scores. It didn’t help matters that Dwayne Haskins had four turnovers. He looks overmatched as an NFL quarterback.
Jimmy Graham - HIT - 6 catches for 60 yards, 2 TD. Like I said last week: everybody scores on the Falcons.
Jordan Akins - MISS - 2 catches for 28 yards. The Texans’ aerial attack just never really got rolling here. Deshaun Watson threw only 27 passes for under 270 yards. Akins will continue to be a cheap source of tight end touchdowns due to the team’s lack of red zone options, but it’s going to continue to be hard to predict the weeks that he’ll hit.
Jordan Reed - MISS - 2 catches for 23 yards. Add this to the list of players that I missed on this week due to injury. Reed injured himself attempting to make a touchdown grab in the first quarter. This is one of those tough-luck calls where the process was right (one of the only healthy pass-catchers playing with a backup QB and who has a history of fantasy production), but the result was marred by injury.
And now for the Hail Marys for Week 4:
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins (7% owned). Fitzmagic has made a career out of disappearing once fantasy owners start to trust him, so I don’t see why this week would be any different - especially after everyone just saw him eviscerate the Jaguars in prime time. But I’m recommending starting The Bearded One because the Dolphins are playing at home, they will have had 10 days to prepare for their Week 4 game against the Seahawks, and those Seahawks have given up at least 25 points in every game this season. Their secondary is getting torched, so this is a tasty matchup for Fitzy and the Dolphins’ passing game.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (26%). They’ve scored 30 or more in 2 of the 3 games so far this year, and their Week 4 opponent, the Texans, have given up 28 or more points in every game this season. The Texans are middle-of-the-pack against the pass, but that’s about as good as you’re going to find this week, when most of the bad defenses are going up against QBs who are heavily rostered.
Nick Mullens, 49ers (2%). The recommendation becomes Jimmy G if he gets healthy in time to play, but I like the matchup for Mullens. The Eagles have been average against the pass so far, but they’re actually pretty tough to run on. If Shanny & Co. want to beat Philly, they’re going to need to throw it more than usual. An added bonus is that George Kittle is expected to return this week, and Deebo Samuel is returning to practice and has a shot to play (though Week 5 may be more realistic for him).
Jeff Driskel, Broncos (2%). You’ve got to have a strong constitution for this one. But they’re playing the Jets, who looked completely lost against the Colts on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Driskel toss a couple of TDs and add 25-30 yards with his legs. There has been some discussion that the Broncos might start Brett Rypien instead of Driskel on Thursday, so obviously remove Driskel from consideration if he’s not the starter. [Editor’s note 9/30/2020: After the publication of this article, Brett Rypien was named the starter for the Broncos’ Thursday Night Football game against the Jets, so Jeff Driskel is being REMOVED as a recommended play.]
Running Backs
Jeff Wilson, Jr., 49ers (22%). This is a bit of box score-chasing, but Wilson received double digit touches and was also involved in the passing game (scoring a touchdown). For as long as Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman remain sidelined, Wilson is likely to split carries with Jerick McKinnon (who also suffered a rib injury on Sunday). Wilson is a solid bet for 10-12 touches each week, with the potential for more if McKinnon is out.
Carlos Hyde, Seahawks (18%). Chris Carson left Sunday’s game with a knee injury. It looks like he’s going to miss a week or two, and Hyde should be the next man up in what has been a prolific offense thus far. Also watch out for Travis Homer, who is likely to receive the third down work.
Chris Thompson, Jaguars (22%). Cincinnati’s defense has been pretty bad so far, and they’ve struggled against pass-catching running backs for years. Thompson could very well waltz into the endzone in this matchup. But honestly, I’m not terribly enthused about this play, or the next one, where we’re recommending . . .
La’Mical Perine, Jets (6%). This one makes me extremely nervous, especially with New York losing Mekhi Becton last week. But in what is looking like a lost season for the Jets, what do they have to lose by seeing what they have in Perine? Frank Gore isn’t the future there, and even though he got 15 carries on Sunday, Perine got 7, and had a YPC just shy of Gore’s. If he breaks out in an island game on Thursday Night Football against the Broncos, you may not be able to get him in Week 5. Perine is probably more of a stash-and-see than a plug-and-play, but if you’re truly desperate, you could give him a look in Week 4.
Wide Receivers
Tre’Quan Smith, Saints (31%). For as long as Michael Thomas is out, Smith is a viable start. The Saints face Detroit’s beatable secondary in Week 4.
Preston Williams, Dolphins (30%). Williams scored a touchdown in Week 3 and gets a soft matchup against the Seahawks’ league-worst secondary on Sunday. He’s as good of a bet for a touchdown as anyone.
James Washington, Steelers (11%). With Diontae Johnson being knocked out of the game in Week 3, it was Washington, not Juju Smith-Schuster, who led the team in targets. (Of course, since I recommended Claypool last week and he didn’t produce, you know he’ll go OFF this week now that I’m recommending Washington.)
Justin Jefferson, Vikings (32%). Not that I’m really going out on a limb here by recommending the guy who just caught 7 balls for 175 yards and a touchdown, but hey, he qualifies for the list, so we’re gonna promote him. If we believe in Kirk Cousins - a start in the QB section above - then we should believe in his passing game weapons as well. I’m not afraid of the Texans’ corners, so Jefferson may be able to build on his Week 3 breakout.
Tee Higgins, Bengals (4%). You’re seeing a changing of the guard in Cincinnati. A.J. Green isn’t the same, and Tyler Boyd has become the most targeted player in the passing game. On Sunday, John Ross was inactive, and Tee Higgins served as the team’s primary outside weapon, being targeted 9 times. His role is likely to continue to grow as the season progresses, and the Bengals have a date with the Jaguars’ porous defense this week.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys (31%). This one is pretty simple: Dallas’ Week 4 opponent, Cleveland, is the worst in the league against the tight end.
Eric Ebron, Steelers (27%). As mentioned, Diontae Johnson is in the concussion protocol. Ebron may end up getting more targets as a result. Pittsburgh’s Week 4 opponent, Tennessee, also is not good against the tight end.
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts (9%). He’s had touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and the Colts don’t seem to have any viable pass-catchers at wide receiver other than TY Hilton. Keep riding MAC until the touchdowns dry up.
Drew Sample, Bengals (9%). I feel icky just typing it, because Drew Sample is terrible at football. But Cincinnati faces off against Jacksonville in Week 4, and the Jags are bottom-3 in the NFL against the tight end.