Weekly Hail Mary: Week 6
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we were right on target, hitting on 4 of 12 (33%). Unfortunately, none of our recommendations returned superstar performances. Here are last week’s recommended plays:
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater - HIT - 313 yards, 2 TD. Teddy B was fantastic in this game, although his first half (268 yards passing) was much better than his second half.
Kirk Cousins - HIT - 249 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. It wasn’t the light-up-the-scoreboard performance we were clamoring for, but it was certainly a usable one.
Daniel Jones - MISS - 222 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. How his team scored 34 points and he wasn’t involved is beyond me. Just a weird box score for such a high-scoring game. You’re going to have to see a good outing from Jones before you can feel comfortable starting him again. He’s been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this year.
JImmy Garoppolo - MISS - 77 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT. This was a bad, bad miss. Jimmy G was horrendous in this game, getting benched at halftime after tossing two picks and fewer than 100 yards.
Running Backs
Darrel Williams - MISS - 1 for 4; 1 catch for 15. Just didn’t predict this game going the way it did. I figured KC would blow out Vegas, but Vegas actually came away with the win in this one.
D’Ernest Johnson - MISS - 8 for 32; 1 catch for 4. He gave you something, but it wasn’t much. Kareem Hunt had 20 carries to Johnson’s 8, so you should anticipate a roughly 65-35 split moving forward.
Damien Harris - REMOVED - The Pats/Broncos game was cancelled.
Wide Receivers
Laviska Shenault - HIT - 7 for 79. Shenault was the most-targeted receiver for the Jaguars on Sunday, and responded with the best stat line. I’ve been saying for a while now: this kid provides a safe weekly floor.
Golden Tate - MISS - 4 for 42. See the entry on Daniel Jones, above.
Isaiah Ford - MISS - 2 for 23. Although Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards, he did it on low volume, completing only 22 of 28 passes.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate - HIT - 5 for 44. If this were a stat line for a wide receiver, I’d consider it a miss, but if you’re getting 5 catches and almost 50 yards from a streamer tight end, that’s a good return.
Mo Alie-Cox - MISS - 0 for 0. Apparently this was Trey Burton week in Indianapolis, not Mo Alie-Cox week. Burton was targeted 6 times and hauled in 5 of those passes. Alie-Cox failed to corral his lone target.
Ian Thomas - MISS - 0 for 0. Thomas is just a non-factor in this offense.
Jordan Akins - REMOVED - Akins missed the game with a concussion. His replacement, Daniel Fells, scored a long touchdown, so the process wasn’t that bad here. Deshaun Watson is targeting his tight ends a reasonable amount.
And now for the Hail Marys for Week 6:
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (33% owned). We keep saying it: everybody scores on the Falcons. Cousins squares off against Atlanta, at home, right after they’ve fired Dan Quinn. It’s shaping up as a delicious situation for the Minnesota quarterback. Fire him up with confidence.
Andy Dalton, Cowboys (2%). Dalton is sure to be a hot waiver pickup this week, and for good reason. He has been given the keys to one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Dalton has shown us in the past (2015) that he can perform at an optimal level when surrounded by elite talent. Dallas plays the Cardinals in Week 6, and Arizona is about average against the pass.
Running Backs
J.D. McKissic, Washington (6%). Look, I’m under no delusion that McKissic is a good player. But if I was in bye week trouble and I had to start someone who could give me something, McKissic may give a safe floor. He’s caught 6 or more passes each of the past two weeks with 45+ yards from scrimmage. Elite? No. Useful? Yes. The Washington Footballers play the Giants this week, who do not have a good defense.
Matt Breida, Dolphins (25%). He’s in a timeshare, and he’s on the wrong end of it. But on Sunday, he got 10 touches, which isn’t horrible. He needs to do more with those touches, but for as long as Jordan Howard remains a healthy scratch, he’s likely to see a moderate workload. At this point in the season, that’s about the best you can ask for off the waiver wire, absent an injury.
Jamaal Williams, Packers (15%). Definitely the riskiest play of the week, but the last time we saw him, he did catch 8 passes. If he continues to get volume in that range, he’s going to be useful. The Packers play Tampa Bay in Week 6, and Tampa is pretty darn good against opposing running backs. Assuming that is still the case in the wake of DT Vita Vea’s season-ending injury (no sure thing), the Packers may need to have dump-off passes to backs to get production out of them, rather than runs up the middle. That’s more Williams’ game than Aaron Jones’.
Note: Alexander Mattison doesn’t qualify for this list because he’s owned in 41% of leagues, but if he’s available in your league and Dalvin Cook misses this game, I’d be starting him over any of the above-listed RB streamers. He gets the Falcons in Week 6 and - say it with me now - everyone scores on the Falcons.
Wide Receivers
Preston Williams, Dolphins (22%). Williams always burns me as soon as I start to trust him, but he has a soft matchup against the Broncos in Week 6, who are bottom five against wide receivers, and he’s coming off 100 yards and a score.
Chase Claypool, Steelers (16%). Yeah, yeah, you don’t need me to tell you to pick up a guy who just scored four touchdowns in a game. The only reason I’m chiming in is because I think Claypool is here to stay. I’m a Notre Dame graduate, and I’ve been high on Claypool since his sophomore year of college. The dude is a legit talent. By season’s end, he’s probably viewed as the clear-cut top WR for Pittsburgh. Just don’t expect another 4-TD game.
Tim Patrick, Broncos (17%). Patrick is a forgotten man among fantasy enthusiasts, as we tend to gravitate toward the guys with high draft capital associated with them. We want Jerry Jeudy or KJ Hamler to be the guy that emerges. But it’s likely Patrick, the veteran, who is going to get #2 corners for the rest of the season on the outside, which gives him a reasonable opportunity for production. He’s had touchdowns in back-to-back games, put up over 100 yards his last time out, and faces a Miami defense that is bottom 10 against opposing wide receivers in Week 6. I likely won’t feel good about rolling with Patrick, but if you swallow hard, you can do it.
John Hightower, Eagles (0%). Everyone in your league is going to go ga-ga over Travis Fulgham following his monster performance in Week 5. Don’t take the bait. Hightower was a highly regarded speedster in this year’s draft, and he was the second-most targeted Eagles receiver behind Fulgham this week. As long as Desean Jackson is out, he brings the vertical element that the Eagles’ passing game lacks, and is a better long-term investment for the future. He’s got a rough matchup against Baltimore this week, but hey, Terry McLaurin proved that it’s possible to have a big day against the Ravens. Ok, I get it, John Hightower isn’t Terry McLaurin. But you may want to grab him this week, because after the Eagles get past Baltimore, they get the Giants (2x) and Cowboys in their next three games.
Darnell Mooney, Bears (1%). I’m not particularly enthused about Mooney, but he’s playing more than Anthony Miller, and he’s got good speed. He’s the deep threat for this team, so he’s as good of a bet as any other dart throw for a long score.
TIght Ends
Irv Smith, Jr., Vikings (6%). Because everyone scores against Atlanta. (Now watch, it’ll be Kyle Rudolph instead.)
Jordan Akins, Texans (8%). Assuming he’s cleared from his concussion, he’s a decent start against a Tennessee team that hasn’t played in two weeks (three, by the time of the game) and is bottom-10 against the tight end.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (2%). The Bucs play the Packers on Sunday, who are actually top-5 against the tight end. But the Packers have some good corners, too, so it’s not like things will be easy for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (or is it Scotty Miller? Or Justin Watson?). Point is, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some passes funneled to the tight end. A repeat of last week’s 5 for 44 is not unrealistic.