Being Wrong

You’ve done your research.  Listened to every podcast. Pored over every stat and article.  You know who the sleepers and busts are. You draft a team you love.  You are going to dominate these fools.

And then, for some reason, you don’t.  

That rookie running back you were banking on?  In a 40/60 timeshare with an uninspiring veteran.  That wide receiver who was getting talked up all offseason as a candidate for a second year leap?  Still buried on the depth chart. That quarterback who had an otherworldly season last year? He came back to earth.  

It’s time to face the cold, hard truth:  You were wrong.

We all are.  

No matter how much research we do, no matter how reliable our information, no matter how good our process, we are all going to be wrong about players.  In 2016, I thought Allen Robinson, coming off a 1,400-yard, 14 TD season, was The Next Big Thing. I would have taken him over any receiver in the NFL that year.  And I was wrong. Robinson played in all 16 games, failed to reach 1,000 yards, and only recorded 6 touchdowns. And torpedoed many of my fantasy teams.

The lesson I learned was, “Embrace the fact that you’re going to be wrong.”  Meaning, don’t draft the exact same players in every league. Even if you’re SURE Corey Davis is going to become The Next Big Thing at wide receiver… you could be wrong.  Don’t take Davis in every draft. Grab some shares of Mike Williams or Kenny Golladay instead. Because we’re all going to be wrong.

None of us can see the future.  We are, at best, as reliable as weathermen.  We take the data we have available - none of which tells the full picture - and make our best predictions.  But that’s all they are - predictions. You will maximize your opportunities for success if you make peace with the fact that you often are, and will be, wrong.  

But being wrong is an opportunity for growth, and an opportunity to get better.  If you are wrong about a player, try to figure out why you were wrong.  Did the player get hurt?  Not understand the playbook?  Have clash with a teammate or coach?  Were other players, like a poor offensive line, holding him back?  For me, in 2016, I fell in love with Allen Robinson while failing to account for what a mediocre quarterback Blake Bortles is.  I still think Robinson is a very good player, but very good receivers can only do so much with less than stellar quarterbacks. Which is why I’m not necessarily “all in” on Robinson this year - I don’t know what Mitchell Trubisky is.  

So embrace being wrong.  Learn from being wrong. And use your wrong calls as a learning tool, to help you get better the next time around.