Week One Jitters
Special Guest Column by Dan the Man Mattox
Are we there yet? Yes, we are here! The interminable wait from Week 17 to the beginning of a new regular season is finally over. Sure, we fill our time with free agency, research, and preseason football as best we can, but there is nothing like the jitters you get after your draft in the days leading up to that first Thursday night of the season. You have researched, planned, talked, read, and listen to fantasy "experts" everywhere, but ultimately you have to make your own decisions when it's time to submit a lineup. Or do you? Like the Founder of Hail Mary Football, I'm here to use my two decades-plus of fantasy experience to help you survive, nay, thrive in your Week One match-ups. Just follow these simple tips to weather the uncertainty of the opening week.
1) Consider preseason!
Ok, I know, many of us dismiss the preseason as just scrub time and a money grab on season ticket holders by the league. However, if you pay attention much can be gleaned from these throwaway games. Did you have players that were held out all preseason? Often, that is nothing more than coaches being overprotective of there star players, but sometimes it's an indication that certain players just aren't ready. Take Doug Baldwin, for example. He played nary a snap this preseason, as he is nursing a balky knee. Now what does this mean? Maybe nothing, but more likely it's an indication that a player such as Baldwin may need to be brought along slowly on your fantasy roster as well, especially if you have a sneaky upside guy like John Ross to plug in for Week One. Of course, this doesn't mean to be reckless just because a guy didn't play. Todd Gurley didn't really sniff the field, but he is a slam dunk Week One starter. Use common sense, but keep the preseason performances (or lack thereof) in the back of your mind.
2) Start your Starters.
This sounds obvious, doesn't it? However, what if your draft fell in such a way that you don't have any hammers on your roster? Suppose you drafted guys like Broncos rookie Royce Freeman and Seahawks second-year man Chris Carson. If choosing between the unknown and the untested, choose WHOEVER YOU DRAFTED FIRST. Trust your draft board. If choosing between several players of equal opportunity and equal talent, go with who you picked first. There's a reason you thought enough of a player to take him before other guys. Trust yourself!
3) Forget last year's rankings!
The temptation might be to start guys against teams that struggled defensively the season before. Sure, that seems like a sound plan on the surface. But most teams with weak defenses have spent the offseason trying to improve those defenses! You can't count on the same teams to struggle year in and out. While some actually do, most will improve somewhat due to added talent or a different scheme. Look deeper and pay attention. For instance, the Bears have a much healthier defense than last season and added Khalil Mack just a few days ago. While they were decent last year, it would be foolish to think that borderline guys like Jamaal Williams will see any room to run on opening Sunday.
4) Start your studs!
Yes this sounds obvious, too -- because it should be! Don't get cute! Don't overthink things. If you drafted Jordy Nelson to be one of your starters, play him! If you are in a dynasty league and you kept Corey Davis, don't start Geronimo Allison just because he won the starting receiver job in Green Bay. Give him a couple weeks to prove he is real. If Davis realizes his vast potential in Week One while Allison poops his pants, that regret will literally ruin your Sunday.
Hopefully you can take these simple tips and use them to smoke your Week One opponent and start your fantasy season on a positive note. Above all rejoice, and enjoy the beginning of the best four months of the sports year!