Don't Get Cute

There is a time for taking risks in a fantasy football draft.  That time is not in the early rounds.  The early rounds are for locking in surefire point producers.  In Round 1, you want to get that stud running back or wide receiver - the guy who has produced at a high level before.  Round 2, same thing.  Rounds 3 through 5 the talent drops off somewhat, but you can still get some fairly reliable players with a good track record.

Do not gamble in these rounds.  Slow and steady wins the race.  I'm all for taking risks - but calculated ones.  And when you are gambling on unproven players or uncertain situations, it behooves you to take those risks in the later rounds.  The old adage is true: You can't win your fantasy league in the first round, but you sure can lose it.  

Don't get cute.  Even if you think Royce Freeman is the next big thing, it would be unwise to take him in Round 1.  He has, at best, a late third round draft pick (and even that is too rich for my blood).  Even if he busts out, you are sacrificing the opportunity cost of taking a more certain, established player (like David Johnson, Antonio Brown, or Alvin Kamara) with your first round pick.   I repeat: Don't.  Get.  Cute.  

This game is all about minimizing risk and maximizing reward, and nowhere is that more evident that in the first few rounds.  Take players who present the least amount of risk.  Admittedly, this philosophy might force you to miss out on guys like Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette.  But it also helps you miss out on guys like Darren McFadden and Laurence Maroney.  Let someone else gamble on the shiny new toy.

Look, I like rookies as much as the next guy.  But what is a better gamble - Saquon Barkley as the sixth overall pick, or Rashaad Penny at the top of the seventh round?  I DO believe Barkley is more likely to become a stud than Penny...but we don't KNOW that.  We think we know that because he had good production in college in a Power 5 Conference, had good combine measurables, and was a Top 5 draft pick.  But, again, you could have said the same things about Darren McFadden.  We don't know, for certain, that Barkley won't bust.  But if you draft him in the first round, you are banking that he won't.  Wouldn't it be better strategy to take a more established player in Round 1, like Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, or one of the top wide receivers, and then grab Penny in Round 7?  If Penny busts, you've still got your first round pick to fall back on.  If Barkley busts, you're sunk.  

It would not be at all surprising for Barkley to go out and have a Pro Bowl-caliber season.  And that might lead many of you to say, "See? I told you so.  Definitely worth the risk."  But fantasy football strategy isn't just about results.  It's about process.  And the correct process is to minimize your risk in the early rounds.  If you want a rookie running back, turn to Penny or Nick Chubb or Sony Michel.  If you're wrong about them, oh well - cut them and grab someone off the waiver wire who can give you Flex-level production.  But if you're wrong about Barkley - or any other unproven player in an early round - your season is likely over before it begins.