Late Round Lottery Tickets
Most of us have, at one point or another, played a lottery scratch-off game. A cheap ticket that could end up paying off handsomely, but most of the time is nothing but trash to be quickly discarded.
You can find these same lottery tickets at the back end of your drafts. Below are a list of guys who are late round picks or undrafted - basically free - who have the potential to give a huge return on your investment. And, if they turn out to be trash, just cut them and pick up someone better - you haven't really invested much.
1. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Patriots. Dorsett is the poster child for a lottery pick. He is a former first round pick, has speed for days, and is playing with the GOAT, Tom Brady. In the last few weeks, the Patriots have cut Jordan Matthews and Kenny Britt, and Eric Decker retired. And Julian Edelman is suspended for the first quarter of the season. That is going to give Dorsett valuable opportunity as a starting wide receiver in a Tom Brady offense. Most of the chatter in the fantasy community has been about how this is going to lead to increased targets and production for Gronk and Chris Hogan - and perhaps it might. But is it really a stretch to think that we could see some productive games from Dorsett? He's the speed threat on this team, and should be a starter for at least a quarter of the season, and likely will continue to have opportunities in three-wide sets after Edelman's return. This is a low-risk, high reward situation that is worth gambling on.
2. Ryan Grant, WR, Colts. This one is fairly simple - he's the #2 wide receiver in an Andrew Luck offense. Outside of TY Hilton and Jack Doyle, who is getting fed in this offense? There are going to be plenty of targets to go around. Grant's chief competition right now are guys named Chester Rogers and Daurice Fountain. He could be a sneaky source of reliable fantasy points throughout the year. I do not expect him to become a superstar, but I do think he should have ample opportunity to provide a safe weekly floor as a flex play.
3. John Kelly, RB, Rams. This is the guy who will be toting the rock in a Sean McVay offense in the event of an injury to Todd Gurley. Look, I don't wish injury on anyone. These are human beings who are subjecting their bodies to tremendous punishment to provide for their families. But let's not kid ourselves: injuries happen, and they seem to happen to running backs more than any other position. Kelly would step into a golden opportunity if Todd Gurley ever had to miss time. And you should believe in Kelly's talent: this is the guy who kept Alvin Kamara in a timeshare at Tennessee.
4. Tre'Quan Smith, WR, Saints. There are a number of receivers in this year's draft class who generated quite a bit of buzz, but Smith was not one of them. It is puzzling why not. He steps into a Saints offense that is one of the best in the game, and has a history of putting rookies into starting roles on offense right away (Marques Colston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara all come to mind). Are we all really THAT convinced that Cameron Meredith (a) is healthy and (b) was that great to begin with, so that this kid won't see the field? Are we really that convinced that 33 year old, one-trick pony Ted Ginn is going to keep a talented young wide receiver on the sidelines? While theoretically Meredith and Ginn could retard Smith's development, I am always intrigued by a young weapon in a Drew Brees offense.
5. Zay Jones, WR, Bills. As a general matter, I typically prefer second-year wide receivers to rookies or third-year wide receivers, as the biggest leap often takes place in year two. Some of the more heralded guys from his draft class - Corey Davis, John Ross, Mike Williams - are generating some hype in the fantasy community, but there hasn't been much on Jones. The entire Bills offense seems to be a fantasy pariah, given their offensive line woes and rookie QB. But any NFL offense is going to generate around 500 or more pass plays. Slow-footed Kelvin Benjamin, oft-injured Charles Clay, and ancient LeSean McCoy ain't getting 100% of those targets. Jones stands out as the young, high-upside option in an offense that has quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of distribution of targets. It would not be surprising to see him end the season as the team leader in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. It also wouldn't be surprising to see him get demoted to a backup role.
BONUS NAME:
6. Chad Kelly, QB, Broncos. This is a name only for those deep leaguers whose league requirements required all teams to select three or more QBs. Kelly was a good QB coming out of college, but fell in the draft due to attitude and injury issues. I am no believer in Case Keenum, so if he falters, Kelly will be the next man up. He would step into a good situation with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and promising young players in Courtland Sutton, Jake Butt, and Royce Freeman.
Honorable mentions: Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals; C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks; Ito Smith, RB, Falcons; Curtis Samuel, WR, Panthers; Albert Wilson, WR, Dolphins; Donte Moncrief, WR, Jaguars; Brandon Marshall, WR, Seahawks.