Trade Ups Give Clues About Player Values
The NFL draft capital it costs to acquire a player tells us a lot about how much that team likes the player. What is even more telling, though, is when a team trades up to get that player. That means that the team management felt that it needed the player, that he wouldn’t fall to them, and that it was worth it to spend additional resources - present or future - to acquire the player.
Use this information when deciding which rookies to invest in. I’m not going to focus on quarterbacks - because the position is streamable and rookies do not often make an impact - but if you’re in a dynasty or keeper league, bear in mind that aside from Baker Mayfield, all of the quarterbacks taken in round one were selected by a team that traded up to get them.
For skill position players, keep in mind the following guys, all of whom were selected in the second round:
The Lions traded up to select RB Kerryon Johnson (No. 43), giving the Patriots second and fourth round picks.
The 49ers traded up to select WR Dante Pettis (No. 44), giving the Redskins second and third round picks.
The Eagles traded up to select TE Dallas Goedert (No. 49), giving the Colts second and fifth round picks.
The Bears traded up to select WR Anthony Miller (No. 51), giving the Patriots a fourth round pick and a 2019 second round pick.
Of these players, I like Kerryon Johnson the best, as running backs tend to have an easier time than wide receivers making a year one impact. Among the pass catchers, I favor Anthony Miller, as he should have an easier path to targets with Allen Robinson rehabbing an ACL tear, Kevin White a draft bust, and Taylor Gabriel nothing more than a gadget player. Dante Pettis could wind up carving a meaningful role for the 49ers, but at least for now, he has Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin standing in his way. Dallas Goedert is similarly blocked by Zach Ertz.
Bonus name: Antonio Callaway, WR, Browns. The Browns traded 4th and 6th round picks to select the troubled Callaway in Round 4. Ordinarily, trading up on Day 3 of the draft doesn’t mean much to me, but it does when the player being selected has a checkered past. It suggests that the Browns *really* like Callaway despite his flaws. There are rumors that the Browns could be looking to move on from Corey Coleman, and Josh Gordon is also one failed drug test away from another suspension, so it wouldn’t be completely shocking to see Callaway get meaningful targets this season.