Alternate Running Back Theory

There are many popular draft theories out there.  You've heard most of them, I'm sure: First Round Running Backs (mandating that you always grab a running back in the first round); Zero RB (requiring you to wait until Rounds 5 and later to stock up on a plethora of running backs); and Late Round Quarterback, which is a theory popularized by J.J. Zachariason (eschewing quarterbacks in the early rounds in favor of wide receivers and running backs).

This article is intended to propose another winning strategy, which I call "Alternate RB."  The central premise of this strategy is that in the first ten to twelve rounds, you should be drafting a running back in every other round.  In other words, you need to come out of Rounds 1 and 2 with one running back, rounds 3 and 4 with one running back, Rounds 5 and 6 with one running back, etc. 

The idea behind this theory is simple: in most drafts, running backs fly off the board quickly, which is why I disagree with the fundamental principle behind the Zero RB strategy of waiting until Round 5 to draft a running back.  Adopting that philosophy minimizes your chances of hitting on a RB1.  But I do agree with the corollary idea behind Zero RB, which is that running back is a position that sees a ton of injuries, so you should load up on guys who can pop if opportunity strikes. 

Generally, average fantasy output goes down in each successive round of a draft.  So the earlier you draft RBs - a position that is top heavy, thin, and suffers a ton of injuries - the more likely you are to have a stable of guys to rotate in when injuries or bye weeks strike. 

Obviously, you could just draft running backs with your first four picks to try to ensure that you have a solid RB corps regardless of byes and injuries.  But there is opportunity cost associated with doing that; you're missing out on elite wide receivers. In most leagues, you have to start two or three of those guys.  Alternate RB theory allows you to ensure that you get enough quality running backs while also giving you ample room to select the pass-catchers necessary to round out a solid team.  

In practice, this is the sort of philosophy that many drafters adopt anyway without thinking about it.  If you grab Leonard Fournette at the end of Round 1, you're probably looking to add Keenan Allen or Michael Thomas at the end of round 2.  But what I am saying is that you should be intentional about doing that, and understand why - and carry that type of thinking into subsequent rounds.  

In many instances, you are going to be alternating between running backs and wide receivers each round.  But the reason I don't call it "Alternate Wide Receiver" theory is because I don't necessarily advocate taking a wide receiver in every other round.  For example, I'm perfectly fine with you selecting Rob Gronkowski at the end of Round 2 in a 12-team draft to pair with Todd Gurley or Le'Veon Bell.  I'm fine with you grabbing Travis Kelce in Round 4 once you've locked down David Johnson, Davante Adams, and Joe Mixon.  But by and large, you're most likely going to be selecting wide receivers in the rounds you don't select running backs.  

And while I'm certainly a Late Round QB guy - generally never before Round 10 in a 12 team draft - there are always exceptions.  If I see Aaron Rodgers there in Round 6, I'm taking him.  But at that point, I've already got three running backs and two wide receivers.  (I would never take Rodgers in Round 6 if I had fewer than two WR - for example, if I took Gronk in Round 2.)  But generally, I am using Late Round QB theory in conjunction with Alternate RB. 

So how does a typical Alternate RB draft look? Well, unless you get a tight end like Gronk or Kelce, or an elite QB option like Rodgers, your team will probably look something like this:

Rounds 1/2 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 3/4 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 5/6 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 7/8 - One RB and One WR or TE
Rounds 9/10 - One RB and One WR or TE (unless you took a TE in Rounds 7/8). 
Round 11 - QB
Rounds 12 and later - Best player available at RB, WR, or TE
Final two rounds:  K and DEF (if required)

Generally, I do not advocate drafting multiple QBs unless your league requires it or the rest of your league generally keeps 3 QBs or more.  Otherwise, when your bye week hits, you'll be able to pick up a QB off the waiver wire for one week.  It's not a big deal.  Don't waste a valuable roster space on a player who you really don't need all that much, and likely won't play for more than one week.  Running backs and wide receivers are harder to find; use your final roster spot on one of those, not a backup quarterback!

Test out the Alternate RB theory in your mock drafts or leagues.  I bet you'll like your team.  You will be deep at the most premium positions, and will have set yourself up well for when injuries and bye weeks inevitably hit.