How to Optimize Late Round Picks

To maximize the value of your late-round fantasy picks, target former five-star recruits. 

Earth-shattering, I know.  It is hardly surprising that many players who were viewed as five-star prospects coming out of high school have wound up being drafted in Round One of the NFL draft, found success in the NFL, and became fantasy studs.  Current examples include Cam Newton, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Deshaun Watson. There are also five-star/first round guys who, although not quite studs, still became useful fantasy players in their own right - guys like Sammy Watkins, Nelson Agholor, and O.J. Howard.  

But the purpose of this article is to dig a little deeper, and draw attention to some of the more unheralded five-star recruits (a paradox, perhaps, but it’s a real thing).  Let's focus on those former five star recruits who, for whatever reason, were not first round picks in the NFL draft.  History tells us that these undervalued but immensely talented players could  wind up playing a meaningful role for your fantasy squad.  In other words, you need to keep these guys in mind in the middle-to-late rounds of your draft.

These players were five-star recruits for a reason: they have talent. Just because they weren’t drafted in the first round doesn’t mean they can’t be key contributors -- and the last decade or so of fantasy football proves it. Time and time again, “forgotten” five-star recruits come out of nowhere to be useful fantasy assets. Current examples include Keenan Allen (3rd round pick), Dalvin Cook (2nd), Isaiah Crowell (undrafted), Stefon Diggs (5th), Jarvis Landry (2nd), Joe Mixon (2nd), Terrelle Pryor (3rd), Kyle Rudolph (2nd), Tyrod Taylor (6th), Spencer Ware (6th), and Robert Woods (2nd).

So who should you be looking to snag this year? The middle round guys might be obvious: Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Royce Freeman, Sony Michel, and Calvin Ridley could all return solid value.  But you didn't need me to tell you to draft guys who were going to get drafted anyway.  Rather, the value of this exercise is in the late rounds, as that is where you could get a leg up on your competition.  In the last 2-3 rounds of your draft (kickers and defenses aside), you could do worse than throwing a dart at these former top prospects: Colts WR Deon Cain (6th round pick), Panthers RB Elijah Hood (7th), Cardinals WR Christian Kirk (2nd), Bengals WR Josh Malone (4th), Bears RB Taquan Mizzell (undrafted), and Cowboys RB Bo Scarbrough (7th). And even though he was a first round pick, don't forget about Vikings WR Laquon Treadwell. 

Can these guys fail?  Sure. And most likely will.  But the cost to acquire them is almost nothing, and the potential reward is great.  If they don't pan out, then just cut them.  You didn't invest a lot to start with, so it is easy to move on and just pick up someone off the waiver wire. 

Of this list, the guys I'm particularly bullish on this year are Josh Malone and Deon Cain.  Cincinnati has a gaping hole across from A.J. Green, as Brandon LaFell has never been anything special and John Ross has failed to live up to expectations.  A role is there for the taking if Malone can step up.  And Cain finds himself in a similar situation in Indianapolis.  The Colts have little proven talent beyond T.Y. Hilton.  Recently signed Ryan Grant is best viewed as a slot player.  Cain has an opportunity to establish himself in that offense, particularly given his height (6'2") when compared with the smallish Hilton (5'9") and Grant (6'0").  If Andrew Luck finally returns, Cain could be a key cog in a potent aerial attack.  (Editor's Note: Since the publication of this article, Brandon LaFell has been cut by the Bengals, and Deon Cain tore his ACL and is out for the season).