2023 Post-Draft Thoughts: Round 1
These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2023 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with the first round.
Round 1
Carolina Panthers (1.01) - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Panthers traded up several weeks before the draft to acquire this pick and get their franchise quarterback. The only real knock on Young is his size. In terms of processing ability, he’s second to none. Young wasn’t a consensus #1 pick, but he was pretty darn close, and I’d wager he was at the top of most teams’ draft boards.Houston Texans (1.02) - CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
A week or so before the draft, it was leaked that Stroud scored an 18 on the S2 test. Now, bear in mind that before the score was leaked, most casual fans had no idea what an S2 test was. But the scuttlebutt was that Stroud didn’t have the mental acuity to play quarterback. I called shenanigans on that. Clearly, someone was leaking the scores to try to get Stroud to fall to them. Houston wasn’t deterred. They did a great job hiding their intentions leading up to this draft. There were rumors just a few days ago that they were in the market for DE Tyree Wilson or LB Will Anderson over a QB. There were also late rumors that they preferred Will Levis, a/k/a Willy Mayonnaise. All of it was smoke. They nabbed the QB they’ve needed ever since Deshaun Watson was suspended.Houston Texans (1.03) - Will Anderson, Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Houston traded up from 12 to 3 to get back-to-back top picks in this draft. This move was first predicted by Lance Zierlein, who is a Houston native. Zierlein, however, predicted the pick at 3 would be Tyree Wilson. Anderson was generally regarded as the best edge rusher in this draft class after back-to-back years of double-digit sacks in the SEC. Still, the price they paid was steep - No. 12, No. 33, and a first rounder next year - so Anderson better turn out to be an All-Pro for the compensation to be worthwhile. There were rumors after the draft that the coaches and scouting department wanted Will Anderson at #2 and the owner insisted on Stroud, so this was the compromise.Indianapolis Colts (1.04) - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
This was shocking. Richardson is an athletic freak, but he is a terrible passer. He has one of the lowest completion percentages of any first round quarterback in the past 20-30 years. He’s probably riding the Jalen Hurts/Justin Fields/Lamar Jackson rushing quarterback wave, but he’s not anywhere close to as good of a passer as those guys are. This may come back and bite me, but I feel like this is the sort of pick that will end up costing Chris Ballard his job.Seattle Seahawks (1.05) - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Another surprising pick. The Seahawks had not taken a corner in Round 1 since Kelly Jennings. Most draftniks expected them to take Georgia DT Jalen Carter or one of the quarterbacks, so this comes as a mild surprise. It’s not a huge reach, though, as Witherspoon was widely expected to go in the top 10. The fit is a little curious, though, as he’s not built in the mold of Seahawks corners of years past. Historically, they’ve tended to opt for players who are long and tall. Witherspoon is on the smaller side, but is a ball of energy. He was my number 1 corner in this class, so I agree with the pick. He and Tariq Woolen will cause problems for opposing passers.Arizona Cardinals (1.06) - Paris Johnson, Jr., LT, Ohio State
Johnson was viewed as a consensus top-15 pick, but you probably won a lot of money if you projected him to the Cardinals. The Cardinals moved down from 3 to 12, and then back up to 6 to get their man. Deft manipulation of the draft board to stockpile picks while still adding a premium talent to boost a roster that is one of the worst in the league.Las Vegas Raiders (1.07) - Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
Massive human being. Seems to be the second coming of Carlos Dunlap. Is that worth a top 10 pick? I have no doubt he’ll be a ten year starter in the league. But will he ever be one of the elite sack artists? I’m always wary of guys who didn’t test pre-draft. Wilson was unable to test due to a foot injury.Atlanta Falcons (1.08) - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
I predicted this pick. Love the fit. Bijan is viewed as a generational talent at RB and he’s going to one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Head coach Arthur Smith orchestrated the smashmouth Tennessee offense in Derrick Henry’s heyday, and it looks like he’s fixing to do the same in Atlanta with Bijan. Robinson gives this team an identity. Plus, his presence should take pressure off of second-year passer Desmond Ridder, and open up things for Drake London and Kyle Pitts in the receiving game. Having said that, I wonder about this team’s roster construction. They’ve been a league doormat for a while now, and they’ve spent their last three first round picks (all in the top 8) on a tight end, a wide receiver, and a running back. It feels like bad process.Philadelphia Eagles (1.09) - Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Eagles traded up one pick to get their man. Carter was regarded by many as the best defensive player in this draft, so it’s a steal for Philly to get him at 9. That said, he’s got serious character concerns. He may be amazing, but I would not have had him on my draft board if I were running an NFL team. Don’t draft knuckleheads. It will blow up on you more often than not.Chicago Bears (1.10) - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
A mild surprise. Generally regarded as the best RT in the draft, but the dude CANNOT RUN BLOCK. I think he’s overrated based on one good game against Will Anderson (where he only had to pass block him for ten snaps, per PFF). I’m not sold on the guy. And it seems like a curious fit, since the Justin Fields-led Bears are primarily a running team.Tennessee Titans (1.11) - Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern
Skoronski was a tackle in college, and the Titans are moving him to guard. I always have concerns about “projections” with first round picks. I do like the TItans trying to get back to their smashmouth roots with this pick, but I’m just not sure how I feel about projections. In the first round, I like to draft players where I can ask them to do the same things that they successfully did in college.Detroit Lions (1.12) - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Detroit traded back from 6 to 12, allowing Arizona to trade back up in the first round. This was the first truly SHOCKING pick of the round. It’s always a terrible value proposition to blow a first round pick on a running back; it’s the most replaceable position in football. It’s even worse when you spend that first round pick on a guy who will not be a 3-down player for you. That said, Gibbs is absolutely electric and should improve the Lions’ offense.Green Bay Packers (1.13) - Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Van Ness is a good value here. But the Packers AGAIN eschew wide receivers. It’s like they just want life to be difficult for their quarterbacks. Van Ness was one of my flag players this year, so I certainly hope he’ll succeed as a 3-4 base end for the Pack.Pittsburgh Steelers (1.14) - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Pittsburgh traded up 3 picks with New England to get this draft choice. Seems fairly brilliant, as they snagged the last of the top offensive linemen in this draft. Candidly, Jones was my #1 tackle in this class, and I’m an unabashed Steelers h8r, so it does give me a bit of heartburn to see them wind up with this player.New York Jets (1.15) - Will McDonald IV, DE, Iowa State
My favorite player in the draft. Love this choice for the Jets. He will terrorize opposing quarterbacks in the AFC East. He has a wicked spin move and a relentless motor. It will not be surprising at all to see him wind up as a double-digit sack guy.Washington Commanders (1.16) - Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
The best ballhawk in the draft. Still, he’s undersized at 166 lbs., so there are concerns that he can’t hold up in the NFL. But is that really a legitimate gripe when his size was plenty big enough for him to hold up in the SEC?New England Patriots (1.17) - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez was widely regarded as the most physically gifted corner in the draft, so it does come as a mild surprise that he fell out of the top ten. The criticism on him is that he was soft, and wasn’t a willing tackler. Nevertheless, he has elite traits, so this appears to be a a great value pick for the Patriots. Their best teams always have a shutdown corner (Ty Law, Darrelle Revis, even Steph Gilmore), so this gets them back to the build of dominant defenses of yesteryear.Detroit Lions (1.18) - Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
Campbell was a first team All American and the best pure linebacker in this class. It’s not surprising that he was a first round pick. I absolutely love the dude, and think he could end up being a multi-year defensive captain for Motown. But I hate how the Lions spent their premium draft capital. They had 3 picks in the top-34 of this draft, and didn’t spent a single one on a premium position. That’s bad process, even if the players do turn out to be NFL stars.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.19) - Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Outliers. Nope. We don’t spend first round picks on outliers. Kancey shows tremendous burst from the 3-tech spot, but he’s so alarmingly undersized. It’s not fair to him all the comps that he gets to Aaron Donald just because they’re both undersized DTs who went to Pitt. Donald is an outlier; he’s the exception that proves the rule. He’s not the reason to draft another undersized DT from Pitt. Kancey may well be a star, but the odds are that he’s more likely to bust. Don’t draft size (or speed) outliers in the first round. More often than not, those are the guys who bust and armchair GMs look back on the pick 5 years later and say, “What were they thinking?”Seattle Seahawks (1.20) - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
In my opinion, Smith-Njigba is clearly the best wide receiver in this draft, so it’s a tremendous value to get him as the first wide receiver off the board at 20. Tyler Lockett is 31, so this is an excellent forward-looking selection for the Seahawks.Los Angeles Chargers (1.21) - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
It was one of the worst kept secrets in the league that the Chargers were looking to add to their WR corps. Johnston seems like a good fit for the long term. There were numerous comments during the draft broadcast that he turned off a lot of teams with his interview, so it will be interesting to see how he meshes with his new organization. Justin Herbert will likely welcome another reliable pass-catcher.Baltimore Ravens (1.22) - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
An undersized wide receiver in the first round? Just the latest in a long line of bad WR picks by the Ravens. I was never high on Flowers in the first place - again, I don’t like size outliers in the first round - and he winds up with the team that rarely has wideouts put up big numbers.Minnesota Vikings (1.23) - Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The former Biletnikoff Award winner succeeded at two different schools, and in two different roles (on the outside at Pitt, in the slot at USC). I’m a huge fan of Addison (yeah, I guess I’m ignoring what I said earlier about size and speed outliers?). I just love this pick for the Vikings because I’ve seen the guy play. He’s not the best athlete, and he’s a little lighter than you’d like, but he’s a superior route runner and those dudes almost always find success in the NFL.New York Giants (1.24) - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Giants swapped first round picks with the Jaguars to get a falling corner. Banks is an uber-athletic specimen who was projected to go in the 20-25 range. This was a sensible pick at a position of need. I’m mildly surprised that they didn’t go with a wide receiver, but I suspect they feel that they’ve addressed their need at pass-catcher by the pre-draft trade of pick 100 for TE Darren Waller. In my estimation, Waller is over the hill and his body is breaking down. But time will tell.Buffalo Bills (1.25) - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Buffalo traded up with Jacksonville to get ahead of the Cowboys and nab Kincaid. It seems a curious fit, since they just extended Dawson Knox. I wasn’t huge on Kincaid. He’s a 23-year-old rookie who is coming off a back injury. When he finally worked out for teams, rumors were that he was down to 220 lbs., which is way too light to be an NFL tight end. I preferred Michael Mayer and Sam LaPorta in this class.Dallas Cowboys (1.26) - Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Smith is the best nose tackle in the draft. In the week leading up to the draft, the rumors were that Smith would not make it out of the final 8 picks of the first round. Sometimes where there’s smoke, there’s fire. This was a really sensible selection for a Cowboys team that all too often ignores the middle of their defensive line.Jacksonville Jaguars (1.27) - Anton Harrison, LT, Oklahoma
This was a massive reach based upon Cam Robinson getting suspended earlier in the day. Classic panic move by Jacksonville. I’d be highly annoyed as a Jags’ fan. But I was never that high on Harrison in the first place.Cincinnati Bengals (1.28) - Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Candidly, I went on full tilt after this pick. Murphy is a decent athlete, but he had suboptimal pre-draft testing numbers in the measurables that are most predictive of sacks (vertical jump, broad jump, 3 cone). I had Murphy ranked as my #9 edge rusher in this class, and only 4 edge rushers went before him. He’s not a bad player, but I just couldn’t help but feel that this draft pick is a single. Or, to be more fair to him, it’s is a single with the potential to be a double, and I generally want to hit doubles with my first round picks. However, I do like the fact that Cincinnati spent their first round pick on a premium position. That’s good process. And it gives them insurance for when Trey Hendrickson’s contract is up in 2024.New Orleans Saints (1.29) - Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Meh. This is a guy living off of his draft hype as the #1 player in his high school recruiting class. He didn’t produce in college. This is entirely a projection. That’s a huge risk in Round 1. I don’t like to take projections until the later rounds. Too much risk.Philadelphia Eagles (1.30) - Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia
Smith is slightly undersized, but he was an elite tester and is a high-character player. He fits really well with Philly’s wide-nine defense. Plus, he’s probably stoked to play with his former Georgia teammates Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Nakobe Dean.Kansas City Chiefs (1.31) - Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State
Good value pick for the Chiefs in snagging an underrated edge rusher to replace Frank Clark. FAU posted an elite 3-cone, which is the combine drill that is most predictive of future sacks.