2023 Post-Draft Thoughts: Rounds 2 and 3
These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2023 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We already recapped Round 1 here. This column will pick up where we left off and evaluate the picks from Day 2 of the draft.
Round 2
Pittsburgh Steelers (2.01) - Joey Porter, Jr, DB, Penn State
This seemed so predictable once he fell out of the first round. Porter follows in his daddy’s footsteps to the Steel City. He was generally regarded as a first round talent, but also as someone who was better suited to a press man scheme than a zone scheme. That’s likely the reason he fell out of the first round and was available here in Round 2. He projects as a really solid addition to the Pittsburgh secondary.
Tennessee Titans (2.02) - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Titans acquired this pick from the Cardinals (which the Cardinals had gotten the day before from the Texans) to move up and get their QB of the future. There was a lot of buzz heading into the draft that Levis could go Top 5, so this seems like good value to get him in the second round. That said, I’m not a Levis fan. He has accuracy and decision-making concerns. That typically doesn’t improve in the pros. He also couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State, and he’s old for a rookie quarterback. There are lots of reasons to be “out” on Levis.
Detroit Lions (2.03) - Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
Outstanding pick for Detroit. LaPorta is a run-after-catch monster. He was my second favorite tight end in this draft, behind only Michael Mayer. He should slot right in immediately as a starter for the Lions. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up being the best fantasy tight end from this draft class.
Las Vegas Raiders (2.04) - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Raiders acquired this pick from the Colts. I love Mayer. He’s a blue chip prospect. He should start in the league for a decade. This is a pretty smart selection for a team whose tight end depth chart was barren. Plus, there’s a pretty good track record of tight ends coming out of Notre Dame in the past 15 years.LA Rams (2.05) - Steve Avila, G, TCU
It was generally surprising that the Rams, with needs at WR and all over the defense, would spend their first draft choice on a guard. That said, Avila is an excellent guard. He’s a plug-and-play starter in a class that’s very thin at the iOL positions.Seattle Seahawks (2.06) - Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
I liked Hall, but I didn’t love him. I thought he was more of a 3rd round talent. He reminds me a lot of Carl Lawson, but maybe I’m swayed by the Auburn jersey. Seattle always tends to draft strangely and often reaches for guys. This feels like a classic Seahawks reach.Atlanta Falcons (2.07) - Matthew Bergeron, OL, Syracuse
The Falcons moved up to get this pick from the Colts, who traded down twice in the second round. Bergeron is a popular player who can play both guard and tackle. The book on him is that “he never loses ugly.” That’s a great thing to say about an offensive lineman. Solid pick for the Dirty Birds, who likely slot him in as their LG of the present and their LT of the future.Carolina Panthers (2.08) - Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
This was a reach, plain and simple. Mingo got elevated in the draft process because he’s a bigger, thicker receiver in a class full of small and/or slender guys. Kinda reminds me of Laviska Shenault with his body type and inflated draft capital. I think fans will wonder in a year, “This is the guy that the Panthers chose to be the primary target for new franchise QB Bryce Young?”New Orleans Saints (2.09) - Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame
Great pick for the Saints. Foskey is the all time leader in sacks for Notre Dame, and plays the run well. He’ll be a long term starter for New Orleans. He’s probably the best defensive end the Irish have produced since Stephon Tuitt.Arizona Cardinals (2.10) - B.J. Ojulari, LB, LSU
This is a really curious pick. Ojulari isn’t a great athlete, and this is a team that desperately needs more talent on defense. There were a lot of better edge rushers left here. I may look silly down the line for saying this, but this seems like a bad pick. The Cards’ also desperately need wide receivers. Nuk Hopkins is rumored to be on the trade block and they don’t have much behind him other than Hollywood Brown. Why didn’t they grab one of the falling wideout talents in this class? This feels like a Cardinals team that isn’t even feigning competitiveness for 2023.Green Bay Packers (2.11) - Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
It’s not a surprise to anyone that the Packers used one of their first two selections on a tight end, as the top tight end on their depth chart heading into the draft was Josiah Deguara. After trading Aaron Rodgers, they needed to get as many weapons as possible for new starting quarterback Jordan Love. I wasn’t as high on Musgrave as many draft analysts, but his strengths are his athleticism, speed, and ability to stretch the seam. More weapons for Jordan Love have to be a good thing.New York Jets (2.12) - Joe Tippman, C, Wisconsin
This was a really strong pick for Gang Green, increasing the protection for newly-acquired 39-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They missed out on a top offensive tackle in Round 1, but they take the first center off the board in Round 2.Indianapolis Colts (2.13) - Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
A good value pick at a position of need for the Colts. Brents is long and fast. But he’s also kinda old, which often doesn’t bode well for pro success.Detroit Lions (2.14) - Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Detroit acquired this pick from division rival Green Bay. The Lions needed some reinforcements in the secondary after trading former #3 overall pick Jeff Okudah. Branch likely slides in as their nickel corner. He’s not a great tester, but he has great film, and was the leader of Nick Saban’s Alabama defense. Good pick for a team that’s struggled in the secondary for what seems like 30 years.New England Patriots (2.15) - Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech
The Patriots’ defensive line has lacked an identity for several years. Getting a big, hulking defensive end who offers scheme versatility seems like an ideal fit for the Patriots. My primary concern with White is his age; he’s already 24 years old.Washington Commanders (2.16) - Jartavius “Quan” Martin, DB, Illinois
Martin is a versatile player, but he was overdrafted. I had a fourth round grade on him.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.17) - Cody Mauch, G, North Dakota State
Tampa acquired this pick from the Packers and selected the first player in the draft from outside the Power 5. The toothless wonder, Cody Mauch, provides necessary reinforcements along the Bucs’ offensive line, which was ravaged by injuries in 2022. This is a good long-term pick to build for the future.Pittsburgh Steelers (2.18) - Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
Benton is a versatile player who can play multiple positions along the defensive line. I suspect Pittsburgh views him as a 3-4 defensive end. He was one of the most positively discussed players during Senior Bowl week. This strikes me as a good value pick.Green Bay Packers (2.19) - Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
I liked Reed a lot heading into the draft, but this seems like a slight reach. He’s a tad undersized (i.e., too light) and his college production wasn’t stellar. However, he should be able to contribute on special teams, at a minimum. For what it’s worth, he started his career at Western Michigan and out-produced future second round picks Dee Eskridge and Skyy Moore (although that may be damning with faint praise). Like Keeanu Benton, he was one of the stars of Senior Bowl week.Miami Dolphins (2.20) - Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Excellent choice for the Dolphins. Byron Jones may never play again. Although the Fins traded for Jalen Ramsey earlier this offseason to pair with Xavien Howard, they needed to get younger at the position. I had Smith rated as a late first rounder, so I love the value here.Seattle Seahawks (2.21) - Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
What the whaaa? They used a 2 on Kenny Walker last year, and now a 2 on Charbonnet this year? The screams you just heard are those of Kenny Walker’s fantasy owners, watching his fantasy prospects get flushed down the drain.Chicago Bears (2.22) - Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
I just didn’t see the talent with this cat. A lot of draft analysts I respect, like Dane Brugler, had him this high, so there’s clearly something I’m missing here. But I just wasn’t impressed with Dexter.Los Angeles Chargers (2.23) - Tuli Tulipulotu, LB, USC
Tulipulotu has some great get-off. He was a first team All-American at defensive end, but he’s slightly undersized, so the Chargers will be shifting him to OLB in their 3-4. He provides some necessary pass-rush juice to their front seven.Kansas City Chiefs (2.24) - Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
Kansas City snags the guy who led the nation in receiving yards per game. He was one of my favorite sleepers entering this draft, but as a second round pick, I guess he’s not that much of a sleeper anymore. His best attribute is that he’s a touchdown-maker. And Patrick Mahomes is a touchdown-creator. I expect sweet, sweet music.Chicago Bears (2.25) - Tyrique Stevenson, DB, Miami
Chicago traded up with Jacksonville to grab Stevenson, who was one of the last of the top corners. Stevenson joins a talented young secondary in the Windy City.New York Giants (2.26) - John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
My absolute favorite offensive player in this class. This dude is just a good, solid football player. Well done by the G-Men. I had a first round grade on Schmitz, who posted 4 straight years of stellar grades on PFF.Dallas Cowboys (2.27) - Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
This was a reach, but tight end was a huge need for the Cowboys, so it makes sense. I thought Schoonmaker was more of a third round guy, but this was near the end of round 2, so I won’t quibble. I do question selecting him over Darnell Washington and Tucker Kraft, though.Buffalo Bills (2.28) - O’Cyrus Torrence, RG, Florida
This is an outstanding pick. I had Torrence with a first round grade, as he was unstoppable during Senior Bowl week. Buffalo stayed patient in this round and a top player at a position of need fell into their laps. Just a fantastic pick for a Bills organization looking to improve its protection for Josh Allen.Cincinnati Bengals (2.29) - D.J. Turner, CB, Michigan
He’s got starter-level talent, so this is a fine pick at this point. Cincinnati wisely plucked the fastest player in the draft to groom behind Chido Awuzie, Cam Taylor-Britt, and Sidney Jones, with the idea that he takes over for Awuzie when his contract expires after the 2023 season. Remember, also, that Awuzie is coming off an ACL tear, so Turner provides some good insurance for that as well. The fact that he played alongside starting FS Dax Hill in college is just gravy on the biscuit.Jacksonville Jaguars (2.30) - Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State
Strange is a good athlete, but this still seems like a “strange” pick. Get it? Get it? Yeah, it’s a bad dad joke. But seriously, Strange was an incredible reach. I’d be absolutely furious as a Jags fan, given that their first two picks were Anton Harrison and Strange. No team got a lesser haul with their first two draft choices. And that includes the Browns, Broncos, and Rams, who lacked first round picks.Houston Texans (2.31) - Juice Scruggs, C, Penn State
Back to back dudes from Penn State getting overdrafted. I preferred Ricky Stromberg to him, if the Texans were looking for a center. Scruggs is strong, but really strong iOL flop all the time. Go ask Russell Bodine.Denver Broncos (2.32) - Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
Denver traded up with Detroit to get this pick, and they get perhaps the best deep ball tracker in this class. I don’t know that Mims will ever be a star, but he seems to be a reliable deep ball threat. Remember, this is the first draft pick of the Sean Payton era. If Sean Payton thinks they need this guy, I’m intrigued.
Round 3
Chicago Bears (3.01) - Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina
Pickens is a former five star recruit, but he never really lived up to the billing. It always felt like he would be selected in the middle rounds of the draft, but it is somewhat surprising to me that he wound up being drafted this high.Philadelphia Eagles (3.02) - Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama
I was considerably lower on Steen than most. His arms are too short to play tackle, at least according to my minimum size thresholds. He’s a guard in the NFL. I’ll be interested to see where the Eagles plan on playing him on the offensive line.Philadelphia Eagles (3.03) - Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
Brown might be the best of the bunch in a weak safety class. He presents a good size-speed combo for the position.Denver Broncos (3.04) - Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
This was a fantastic pick for Denver. I had a first round grade on Sanders. The former five-star recruit really came into his own after he transferred from Alabama to Arkansas and shifted from defensive end to linebacker. He strikes me as a poor man’s Micah Parsons. The only linebacker I had rated higher than Sanders was Jack Campbell, who went nearly 50 picks earlier.Detroit Lions (3.05) - Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
I’m a huge fan of Hooker. I wanted to give him a first round grade, but every time I got the urge, I had flashbacks of Brandon Weeden - a quarterback in his mid-20s putting up big numbers in a gimmicky spread offense. Hooker will be 25 this season and is coming off a torn ACL. He won’t start for the Lions in 2023, and likely not in 2024. The first realistic look they’ll get of him will be in 2025, when he’s 27 years old. Would you really want to turn the keys to your franchise over to a 27 year old QB? I like Hooker’s talent and I want him to succeed, but this is just such a weird evaluation.Houston Texans (3.06) - Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, WR, Houston
The third-team All-American was highly productive in college, albeit in a Group of 5 conference. His speed wasn’t great for his size (165 pounds), and I question whether it will translate to the next level. He’s a slot-only player.Las Vegas Raiders (3.07) - Byron Young, DT, Alabama
I was surprised that this Byron Young was drafted ahead of Tennessee’s Byron Young, whom I viewed as the better player. Alabama’s Young profiled, to me, as a rotational defensive tackle. This is too early in the draft for that sort of player. But Las Vegas desperately needed to inject talent into their defensive tackle rotation, so I understand selecting a reliable player from one of college football’s top programs.New Orleans Saints (3.08) - Kendre Miller, RB, TCU
I was a bit surprised by this pick. Miller has the size to be a bell cow in the NFL, but not necessarily the pass catching chops. I suspect the Saints are preparing for Alvin Kamara’s looming suspension, but I just found it curious that this was the back they zeroed in on.Arizona Cardinals (3.09) - Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse
Again, I think Arizona doesn’t care about 2023. Williams is very talented but is coming off an ACL tear, and cannot be relied upon for this season. This was a selection with 2024 in mind.NY Giants (3.10) - Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Fantastic addition for the Giants. They desperately needed to add speed to their receiving corps, and they did so by tabbing a first-team All American who led the Power 5 in touchdown grabs. The knock on Hyatt is that he played only the slot in a gimmicky spread offense in college, and he’ll likely have to make his living on the outside in the pros. His route running is an open question, and will likely dictate whether he’ll be a success in the NFL.Cleveland Browns (3.11) - Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
This was the first pick of the draft for the Browns, and they sensibly added another WR. Amari Cooper is in the last year of his deal and the depth chart is suspect behind him (although I do remain high on Elijah Moore, whom they just traded for). Rumors were that some teams had a late first round grade on Tillman, so this has to be viewed as decent value.Atlanta Falcons (3.12) - Zach Harrison, DE, tOSU
Finally, the Falcons address the trenches. Harrison is a base end who should provide reliable run-stopping ability for Atlanta.New England Patriots (3.13) - Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State
It’s pretty easy to predict New England’s draft picks. Just look for the guys from the most obscure schools. I don’t have anything more intelligent than that to say about Mapu.LA Rams (3.14) - Byron Young, DE, Tennessee
Finally, the “other” Byron Young gets drafted. He’s pretty old for a rookie (25) but had good sack production in the SEC and better-than-average testing to back it up. He should see serious snaps for a Rams’ edge rotation that is sorely lacking in talent.Green Bay Packers (3.15) - Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
Frankly, I liked Kraft a bit better than the tight end the Packers took in Round 2, Luke Musgrave. Kraft seems to be a more reliable and well-rounded player.Indianapolis Colts (3.16) - Josh Downs, WR, UNC
Downs was a second-team All-American. He’s undersized at 5’9, and he’ll be restricted to the slot in the pros, but he should provide a nice safety blanket from the slot for new quarterback Anthony Richardson. He was a PPR dynamo in college.Carolina Panthers (3.17) - DJ Johnson, LB, Oregon
Ugh - horrible pick! This is a late Day 3/UDFA type talent. No idea what the Panthers were thinking here.Tennessee Titans (3.18) - Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
Spears was the darling of Senior Bowl week, showing outstanding cutting ability and better-than-expected receiving chops. There are rumors, though, that his knees are shot. Typically guys with health concerns slide farther than this. That said, if you watched the guy during Senior Bowl week, you know that he has cutting ability reminiscent of Shady McCoy.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.19) - YaYa Diaby, DE, Louisville
I like Diaby quite a bit. He has elite pass rushing traits and put up double digit sacks for Louisville last year. He’s got the sort of upside profile you’re looking for with a late day 2 pick.Denver Broncos (3.20) - Riley Moss, DB, Iowa
I really hope they give Moss a chance to play cornerback. Just because he’s white doesn’t mean he’s automatically a safety. This dude can really play. I think he can hold up against NFL wideouts on the outside, and I’d love to see him get that chance.Miami Dolphins (3.21) - Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
Barf. I don’t care how fast he is. Way too much risk in taking a sub-190 lb. running back. Just not a good track record for those guys in the NFL.LA Chargers (3.22) - Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
The converted wideout, as you might expect, is tremendous in coverage. He should be an asset to the Bolts in shutting down opposing teams’ passing games.Baltimore Ravens (3.23) - Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Classic Ravens pick. They always have a good linebacking corps. Simpson will slide right in next to Roquan Smith and Odafe Oweh. Rumors are that the team is trying to trade Patrick Queen.San Francisco 49ers (3.24) - Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State
Probably the best ballhawking safety in the class. One of the better picks for the 49ers in a draft full of questionable selections for them.Jacksonville Jaguars (3.25) - Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Finally, the Jags make a good pick. Travis Etienne has lower leg concerns, so it makes sense to have an insurance policy/early down bruiser to pair him with. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bigsby supplants Etienne as their primary runner at some point during his rookie contract.LA Rams (3.26) - Kobie Turner, DT, Wake Forest
Turner was one of my favorite Round 4 targets, so I was a bit disappointed that he came off the board late on Day 3. He had a stellar PFF grade and was one of the better kept secrets in this draft.Dallas Cowboys (3.27) - DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
Safety size, but playing linebacker, Overshown always felt like a ‘tweener to me. But I’m still having difficulty shaking the 240-lb. linebacker prototype of 20 years ago. Maybe this is what today’s linebacker looks like.Buffalo Bills (3.28) - Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane
Williams was one of my favorite ‘backers in this class. He’ll compete for some of the snaps that were vacated by Tremaine Edmunds.Kansas City Chiefs (3.29) - Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma
This made me cackle. Kansas City traded up for this dude. I had a 6th round grade on him. Just not my cup of tea. That said, I’m trying out a new proprietary metric this year to stack offensive tackles, so this year is the guinea pig class. According to my metric, Morris was way overdrafted. But I don’t have any past data yet to back up whether my metric is reliable or not. Let’s check in on this in a few years.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3.30) - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Heading into the draft, Washington was getting late first round love. That always felt inflated to me, given his lack of production in college, but it’s undeniable that he has great speed for his size and is a superior blocker. Solid pick for PIttsburgh, even if he never winds up as anything more than a jumbo-sized Reggie Kelly.Arizona Cardinals (3.31) - Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford
The only thing you could count on with this guy was that he was hurt. He spent 5 or 6 years in college and never had a huge season. He’s got decent size, which is desperately needed in Arizona’s diminutive receiving room.Cincinnati Bengals (3.32) - Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
MY BOY! Battle was my favorite safety in this class. He was a 3 year starter for Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide defense and graded above 80 on PFF each of those seasons. He’s a high-floor, low-ceiling player, and is likely the perfect long-term replacement for Vonn Bell in Cincinnati.Detroit Lions (3.33) - Brodric Martin, DT, Western Kentucky
Martin got a 3rd/4th round grade throughout most of the draft process. Given his level of competition, I’m not all that familiar with him and really don’t feel qualified to comment further.Washington Commanders (3.34) - Ricky Stromberg, C, Arkansas
I had Stromberg as more of a fourth round guy, but he tested pretty well and has the potential to be a long-term solution at center for Washington.Cleveland Browns (3.35) - Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
Ika is a big run-plugging nose tackle, which is exactly what Cleveland needs. Their defensive tackle play was among the worst in the league last year. He should compete for snaps immediately.San Francisco 49ers (3.36) - Jake Moody, K, Michigan
Don’t take punters and kickers before Day 3. Ever. This was the Niners just getting cute.Las Vegas Raiders (3.37) - Tre Tucker, WR, Cincinnati
I never in a million years would have guessed that Tucker would get drafted ahead of his UC teammate, Tyler Scott. This was a real head scratcher of a pick. The NFL is littered with fast guys who are undersized and never make any noise in the league.San Francisco 49ers (3.38) - Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama
Latu isn’t terribly athletic and underwhelmed at Alabama. He’s a depth piece for the Niners.
Minnesota Vikings (3.39) - Mekhi Blackmon, CB, USC
This was a crafty selection by the Vikings to close out day 2, as they desperately needed reinforcements in the secondary. Blackmon is old for a rookie (24), but he’s a third-team All-American with decent speed. I had him graded as a 4th round selection, so I’m not going to quibble with him going as the last pick of Round 3.