2023 Potential Cap Cuts - NFC
Every year, we see “surprise” roster cuts across the NFL. But are these cuts really a surprise? Every team has an obligation to stay under the salary cap, so it really shouldn’t shock us when overpaid veterans are released to free up cap space. I take a look at the salary data on OvertheCap.com each year to make an educated guess at which highly priced veterans could be on the chopping block.
To be clear, this is not a “predictions” article. I’m not looking into my crystal ball and telling you these dudes will be cut. I’m saying that based on their salaries and production, and their teams’ respective cap situations, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of them were to be looking for a new team this off-season. This article will focus on the NFC, and our companion piece focuses on the AFC.
Before diving into it, there are a few basic concepts we should explain:
Cap Space: For 2023, the salary cap is projected to be just under $225 million. Based on current contracts, each team is either over or under the projected cap. We will provide data, courtesy of OvertheCap.com (the source for all of our analysis in this article series), on how far each team is over or under the salary cap. Teams that are below the cap have money to spend on free agents and contract extensions; teams that are above the cap need to make cuts to get below.
Cap Hit: This is the amount of money that the player counts towards the salary cap. It does not necessarily equate to the actual salary that a player would make in the given year. Rather, it is a combination of salary and bonuses. For many players, they get up-front signing bonuses that are spread out over the life of a contract. So for many players, their cap hit can be significantly larger than the actual salary they stand to earn for that season. The cap hits, when added together, give us the total figure for how much a team exceeds or falls below the salary cap.
Cap savings: This is the amount of money that a team would save against the cap if a player is cut. Frequently, the cap savings are a lesser amount than the cap hit. This is because of “dead money” (see below). Cap savings are typically expressed in terms of post-June 1 cuts, as cuts after that date end up saving teams the most money.
Dead money: This is the amount of money that a player will count against the salary cap even if he is cut. Most often this is due to signing bonuses that were prorated, for cap purposes, over the life of a player’s contract. So, for example, if Terrell Owens signs a 4-year contract with a $20M signing bonus, his team can spread out the cap hit of the bonus over the life of that deal - let’s say $5M a year - and if he’s cut in year 4, the team can have cap savings in the amount of the released player’s salary, but still have a dead money hit in the amount of $5M (the remainder of the signing bonus that was already paid, but not allocated to the cap in a prior year). That $5M dead money will count against the cap, regardless of whether the player was cut. A team can also have a dead money hit from trading a player. Furthermore, teams are not required to evenly spread the cap hit for bonuses over the life of a deal. Some teams like to front-load contracts so that the dead money hits occur early in the contract. Other teams always like to push their dead money hits toward the back of the deal, always kicking the can down the road.
Guaranteed Money: This is the amount of money that a player is guaranteed to make, regardless of whether he is cut. Most NFL veterans’ contracts do not have guaranteed money beyond the second year, which is why you see so few guys get cut in the first or second year of a contract. Owners don’t like to pay players who aren’t playing for them. But in the third year, when there’s no guaranteed money, it’s a whole lot easier to cut them. There is no guaranteed money owed to the players discussed in this article, unless otherwise noted.
Below, we will go through each team in the NFC. We start by setting forth each team’s salary cap situation. We then list some key players who have large cap hits, how much dead money the team carries regardless of whether the player remains on the team, and how much money the team can save against the cap if the player is designated a post-June 1 cut. Also, we have included the player’s grade from Pro Football Focus, so that you can make an assessment of whether you feel the player is likely to be cut given his recent level of performance.
POTENTIAL NFC CAP CUTS
Dallas Cowboys - $7.18M over the cap
Ezekiel Elliott, Running Back
$16.72M cap hit
$5.82M dead money
$10.9M cap savings
PFF Grade: 71.6
Tyron Smith, Left Tackle
$17.6M cap hit
$4M dead money
$13.6M cap savings
PFF Grade: 59.8
New York Giants - $44.28M in cap space
Kenny Golladay, Wide Receiver
$21.4M cap hit
$7.9M dead money
$13.5M cap savings
$4.5M guaranteed salary
PFF Grade: 55.0
Philadelphia Eagles - $4.24M in cap space
Darius Slay, Cornerback
$26.1M cap hit
$8.6M dead money
$17.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 73.1
Washington Commanders - $6.65M in cap space
Carson Wentz, Quarterback
$26.2M cap hit
No dead money
$26.2M cap savings
PFF Grade: 60.6
Curtis Samuel, Wide Receiver
$13M cap hit
$2.4M dead money
$10.6M cap savings
PFF Grade: 70.5
Chase Roullier, Center
$12.42M cap hit
$4.05M dead money
$8.37M cap savings
PFF Grade: 56.3
Logan Thomas, Tight End
$8.68M cap hit
$1.75M dead money
$6.93M cap savings
PFF Grade: 52.0
Chicago Bears - $90.89M in cap space
Cody Whitehair, Guard
$14.1M cap hit
$4.2M dead money
$9.9M ca savings
PFF Grade: 65.9 (although his play doesn’t justify his contract, the Bears are so flush with cap space that they can probably keep him)
Detroit Lions - $13.83M in cap space
Jared Goff, Quarterback
$30.98M cap hit
$5M dead money
$25.98M cap savings
PFF Grade: 72.4
Romeo Okwara, Defensive End
$14.5M cap hit
$3.5M dead money
$11M cap savings
PFF Grade: 56.3
Michael Brockers, Defensive Tackle
$13.98M cap hit
$3.98M dead money
$10M cap savings
PFF Grade: 51.3
Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Guard/Tackle
$12.45M cap hit
$2.95M dead money
$9.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: None (did not play)
Charles Harris, Defensive End
$7.99M cap hit
$1.99M dead money
$6M cap savings
PFF Grade: 56.4
Green Bay Packers - $16.48M over the cap
Preston Smith, Outside Linebacker
$13.04M cap hit
$2.44M dead money
$10.6M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.4
Kenny Clark, Defensive Tackle
$23.97M cap hit
$7.72M dead money
$16.25M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.4
Aaron Jones, Running Back
$20.01M cap hit
$4.01M dead money
$16M cap savings
PFF Grade: 86.1
Minnesota Vikings - $23.44M over the cap
Adam Thielen, Wide Receiver
$19.97M cap hit
$6.55M dead money
$13.42M cap savings
PFF Grade: 65.0
Dalvin Cook, Running Back
$14.1M cap hit
$31.M dead money
$11M cap savings
PFF Grade: 67.4
Eric Kendricks, Linebacker
$11.43M cap hit
$1.93M dead money
$9.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 61.1
Harrison Smith, Safety
$19.13M cap hit
$3.9M dead money
$15.21M cap savings
PFF Grade: 69.1
Atlanta Falcons - $56.41M in cap space
Marcus Mariota, Quarterback
$14.5M cap hit
$2.5M dead money
$12M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.3
Cordarrelle Patterson, Running Back
$5.5M cap hit
$1.25M dead money
$4.25M cap savings
PFF Grade: 81.0 (his grade is stellar, his contract is reasonable, and they have cap space; the only consideration is that he’ll be 32 next season, which is ancient for a running back)
Carolina Panthers - $8.94M over the cap
Matt Ioannidis, Defensive Tackle
$3.81M cap hit
$953K dead money
$2.86M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.4
Shaq Thompson, Linebacker
$24.46M cap hit
$11.3M dead money
$13.16M cap savings
PFF Grade: 72.3 (he does not deserve to be cut, but he is one of the only logical candidates due to his high cap number; most others with high cap hits have guaranteed money and he does not, and they have almost $28M in dead money owed to Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson)
New Orleans Saints - $60.48M over the cap
Alvin Kamara, Running Back
$16M cap hit
$6.1M dead money
$9.9M cap savings
PFF grade: 72.7 (his looming suspension could make him easier to cut)
Jameis Winston, Quarterback
$15.6M cap hit
$2.8M dead money
$12.8M cap savings
PFF Grade: 65.3
Andrus Peat, Guard
$18.37M cap hit
$6.55M dead money
$11.83M cap savings
PFF Grade: 50.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $55.03M over the cap
Tom Brady, Quarterback (ed. note: article prepared before Brady announced his retirement)
$35.1M cap hit
$10.78M dead money
$24.33M cap savings
PFF Grade: 79.7
Donovan Smith, Left Tackle
$17.9M cap hit
$2.65M dead money
$15.25M cap savings
PFF Grade: 58.1
Shaq Barrett, Outside Linebacker
$21.25M cap hit
$6.65M dead money
$14.6M cap savings
PFF Grade: 68.3
Cameron Brate, Tight End
$4.99M cap hit
$985K dead money
$4M cap savings
PFF Grade: 53.2
Arizona Cardinals - $14.47M in cap space
Robbie Anderson, Wide Receiver
$12M cap hit
No dead money
$12M cap savings
PFF Grade: 51.2
Los Angeles Rams - $14.19M over the cap
Leonard Floyd, Linebacker
$22M cap hit
$6.5M dead money
$15.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 65.7
Tyler Higbee, Tight End
$9.13M cap hit
$2.38M dead money
$6.75M cap savings
PFF Grade: 62.7
Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver
Mentioning him only because he essentially can’t be cut. He has $15.25M in guaranteed money. Barring a trade, he should be on the team in 2023.
San Francisco 49ers - $16.4M in cap space
Arik Armstead, Defensive Lineman
$23.99M cap hit
$7.6M dead money
$16.39M cap savings
PFF Grade: 63.3 (an Armstead cut is unlikely, as they have sufficient cap space)
Seattle Seahawks - $31.04M in cap space
Gabe Jackson, Guard
$11.26M cap hit
$4.76M dead money
$6.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 55.0