2023 Potential Cap Cuts - AFC
Every year, we see “surprise” roster cuts across the NFL. But are these cuts really a surprise? Every team has an obligation to stay under the salary cap, so it really shouldn’t shock us when overpaid veterans are released to free up cap space. I take a look at the salary data on OvertheCap.com each year to make an educated guess at which highly priced veterans could be on the chopping block.
To be clear, this is not a “predictions” article. I’m not looking into my crystal ball and telling you these dudes will be cut. I’m saying that based on their salaries and production, and their teams’ respective cap situations, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of them were to be looking for a new team this off-season. This article will focus on the AFC, and our companion piece focuses on the NFC.
Before diving into it, there are a few basic concepts we should explain:
Cap Space: For 2023, the salary cap is projected to be just under $225 million. Based on current contracts, each team is either over or under the projected cap. We will provide data, courtesy of OvertheCap.com (the source for all of our analysis in this article series), on how far each team is over or under the salary cap. Teams that are below the cap have money to spend on free agents and contract extensions; teams that are above the cap need to make cuts to get below.
Cap Hit: This is the amount of money that the player counts towards the salary cap. It does not necessarily equate to the actual salary that a player would make in the given year. Rather, it is a combination of salary and bonuses. For many players, they get up-front signing bonuses that are spread out over the life of a contract. So for many players, their cap hit can be significantly larger than the actual salary they stand to earn for that season. The cap hits, when added together, give us the total figure for how much a team exceeds or falls below the salary cap.
Cap savings: This is the amount of money that a team would save against the cap if a player is cut. Frequently, the cap savings are a lesser amount than the cap hit. This is because of “dead money” (see below). Cap savings are typically expressed in terms of post-June 1 cuts, as cuts after that date end up saving teams the most money.
Dead money: This is the amount of money that a player will count against the salary cap even if he is cut. Most often this is due to signing bonuses that were prorated, for cap purposes, over the life of a player’s contract. So, for example, if Terrell Owens signs a 4-year contract with a $20M signing bonus, his team can spread out the cap hit of the bonus over the life of that deal - let’s say $5M a year - and if he’s cut in year 4, the team can have cap savings in the amount of the released player’s salary, but still have a dead money hit in the amount of $5M (the remainder of the signing bonus that was already paid, but not allocated to the cap in a prior year). That $5M dead money will count against the cap, regardless of whether the player was cut. A team can also have a dead money hit from trading a player. Furthermore, teams are not required to evenly spread the cap hit for bonuses over the life of a deal. Some teams like to front-load contracts so that the dead money hits occur early in the contract. Other teams always like to push their dead money hits toward the back of the deal, always kicking the can down the road.
Guaranteed Money: This is the amount of money that a player is guaranteed to make, regardless of whether he is cut. Most NFL veterans’ contracts do not have guaranteed money beyond the second year, which is why you see so few guys get cut in the first or second year of a contract. Owners don’t like to pay players who aren’t playing for them. But in the third year, when there’s no guaranteed money, it’s a whole lot easier to cut them. There is no guaranteed money owed to the players discussed in this article.
Below, we will go through each team in the AFC. We start by setting forth each team’s salary cap situation. We then list some key players who have large cap hits, how much dead money the team carries regardless of whether the player remains on the team, and how much money the team can save against the cap if the player is designated a post-June 1 cut. Also, we have included the player’s grade from Pro Football Focus, so that you can make an assessment of whether you feel the player is likely to be cut given his recent level of performance.
POTENTIAL AFC CAP CUTS
Buffalo Bills - $19.61M over the cap
Taron Johnson, Cornerback
$9.25M cap hit
$2.5M dead money
$6.75M cap savings
PFF Grade: 68.3
Matt Milano, Linebacker
$13.3M cap hit
$3.04M dead money
$10.3M cap savings
PFF Grade: 73.7
Miami Dolphins - $16.45M over the cap
Byron Jones, Cornerback
$18.35M cap hit
$4.75M dead money
$13.6M cap savings
PFF Grade: None (did not play due to ankle injury)
Jerome Baker, Linebacker
$12.77M cap hit
$3.74M dead money
$9.03M cap savings
PFF Grade: 78.0 (cut unlikely due to stellar play)
New England Patriots - $32.57M over the cap
Trent Brown, Offensive Tackle
$12.25M cap hit
$1.25M dead money
$11M cap savings
PFF Grade: 67.4
Kendrick Bourne, Wide Receiver
$6.87M cap hit
$1.4M dead money
$5.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 63.6
Jalen Mills, Cornerback
$6.2M cap hit
$625K dead money
$5.59M cap savings
PFF Grade: 44.6
DeVante Parker, Wide Receiver
$6.2M cap hit
No dead money
$6.2M cap savings
PFF Grade: 74.1
New York Jets - $2.8M over the cap
C.J. Mosley, Linebacker
$21.48M cap hit
$4.48M dead money
$17M cap savings
PFF Grade: 69.1
Carl Lawson, Defensive End
$15.73M cap hit
$333K dead money
$15.4M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.8
Corey Davis, Wide Receiver
$11.17M cap hit
$667K dead money
$10.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 65.9
Duane Brown, Left Tackle
$11.28M cap hit
$1.58M dead money
$9.7M cap savings
PFF Grade: 57.8
Jordan Whitehead, Safety
$10.23M cap hit
$2.98M dead money
$7.25M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.1
Baltimore Ravens - $26.87M in cap space
Calais Campbell, Defensive End
$9.4M cap hit
$2.44M dead money
$7M cap savings
PFF Grade: 77.2 (still playing at an extremely high level despite his advanced age)
Cincinnati Bengals - $43.72M in cap space
Joe Mixon, Running Back
$12.8M cap hit
$2.75M dead money
$10M cap savings
PFF Grade: 79.3
Tyler Boyd, Wide Receiver
$10.3M cap hit
$1.4M dead money
$8.9M cap savings
PFF Grade: 71.1
La’El Collins, Right Tackle
$9.38M cap hit
$1.67M dead money
$7.72M cap savings
PFF Grade: 57.9
Cleveland Browns - $14.65M over the cap
Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver
$23.78M cap hit
$3.78M dead money
$9.75M cap savings
PFF Grade: 81.2 (Cooper would be an extremely difficult cut, but shedding his salary would cure the Browns’ cap woes in one fell swoop)
John Johnson III, Safety
$13.5M cap hit
$3.75M dead money
$9.75M cap savings
PFF Grade: 62.8
Pittsburgh Steelers - $1.03M in cap space
William Jackson III, Cornerback
$12.18M cap hit
No dead money
$12.18M cap savings
PFF Grade: 49.6
Mitchell Trubisky, Quarterback
$10.63M cap hit
$2.63M dead money
$8M cap savings
PFF Grade: 76.6
Houston Texans - $39.29M over the cap
Maliek Collins, Defensive Tackle
$9.85M cap hit
$2.5M dead money
$7.35M cap savings
PFF Grade: 65.4
Indianapolis Colts - $13.08M in cap space
Kenny Moore, Cornerback
$7.67M cap hit
No dead money
$7.67M cap savings
PFF Grade: 55.7
Grover Stewart, Defensive Tackle
$10.88M cap hit
$1.25M dead money
$9.63M cap savings
PFF Grade: 69.0
Matt Ryan, Quarterback
$35.2M cap hit
$18M dead money
$17.2M cap savings
PFF Grade: 63.8
Jacksonville Jaguars - $22.21M over the cap
Rayshawn Jenkins, Safety
$10.5M cap hit
$2M dead money
$8.5M cap savings
PFF Grade: 57.3
Roy Robertson-Harris, Defensive Tackle
$10.13M cap hit
$2.33M dead money
$7.8M cap savings
PFF Grade: 63.9
Jamal Agnew, Wide Receiver/Kick Returner
$5.89M cap hit
$1.17M dead money
$4.71M cap savings
PFF Grade: 72.4
Tennessee Titans - $23.62M over the cap
Bud Dupree, Outside Linebacker
$20.2M cap hit
$4.45M dead money
$15.75M cap savings
PFF Grade: 58.2
Taylor Lewan, Left Tackle
$14.84M cap hit
No dead money
$14.84M cap savings
PFF Grade: 67.3
Robert Woods, Wide Receiver
$14.61M cap hit
$863K dead money
$13.75M cap savings
PFF Grade: 68.0
Zach Cunningham, Linebacker
$13.43M cap hit
$2.25M dead money
$11.18M cap savings
PFF Grade: 60.3
Denver Broncos - $9.2M in cap space
Graham Glasgow, Guard
$14M cap hit
$3M dead money
$11M cap savings
PFF Grade: 59.3
Chase Edmonds, Running Back
$5.92M cap hit
No dead money
$5.92M cap savings
PFF Grade: 50.8
Kansas City Chiefs - $14M in cap space
Frank Clark, Defensive End
$28.68M cap hit
$7.68M dead money
$21M cap savings
PFF Grade: 67.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Wide Receiver
$11M cap hit
$2M dead money
$9M cap savings
PFF Grade: 62.6
Las Vegas Raiders - $20.13M in cap space
Derek Carr, Quarterback
$34.88M cap hit
$1.88M dead money
$33M cap savings
PFF Grade: 66.6
Los Angeles Chargers - $20.38M over the cap
Khalil Mack, Outside Linebacker
$27.4M cap hit
$4.5M dead money
$22.9M cap savings
PFF Grade: 71.1
Who do you think are the most likely cuts this off-season? Leave your thoughts in the comments box!