2022 Post-Draft Thoughts: Rounds 4-7
This is a continuation of my draft notes. These notes provide context for the 2022 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making these picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. Here are the notes for some of the Day 3 picks. For these rounds, I focused on players who may have an opportunity to become fantasy contributors, but occasionally I have sprinkled in players at non-fantasy positions that I felt strongly about:
ROUND 4
Pick 107 - Houston Texans - Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida
This guy got a ton of love coming into the draft process from NFL scouts. I didn’t quite see it. I do think he’ll be productive pro, but I see him as more of a timeshare back than a true bellcow. He never had more than 106 carries in any of his four years at Florida, and never rushed for 600 yards. He does have an all-around skill set and decent size (5’10, 216), but those fantasy football players who are expecting a value in their drafts are likely to be disappointed. He’s probably a better real-life football player than fantasy asset.
Pick 119 - Baltimore Ravens - Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama
I had a late second-round grade on Armour-Davis, who has played in a lot of big games for the Crimson Tide, so I really like the value here for Baltimore.
Pick 120 - Carolina Panthers - Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State
Smith was a rather polarizing prospect. He’s a former five-star recruit who never really put it all together in college. However, I believe in the traits. He has great size at 6’4, 250 lbs. - a throwback linebacker - and his 4.52 speed is good for that size. His weight-adjusted speed score is in the 97th percentile; this dude can move for a big man. He’s also super young - only 21.04 years old on draft day - and has pterodactyl arms at 34.625”, the longest of any linebacker drafted in this class. There is some belief that there is a correlation between arm length and coverage ability for linebackers at the NFL level, so that’s just icing on the cake for a guy that presents an ideal package of traits.
Pick 122 - Las Vegas Raiders - Zamir White, RB, Georgia
This is a good value for the Raiders. There are two knocks on White: injury history and lack of demonstrated pass-catching ability. The injury history is not concerning to me because he played 15 games his final season at Georgia and looked just fine. The lack of receptions are likewise not as concerning as they would be for most players because he shared a backfield with James Cook, an elite pass-catcher in his own right. He’s one of those guys who should probably catch a higher percentage of targets in the NFL than he did in college. With the Raiders declining Josh Jacobs’ 5th year option shortly after the draft, there are enough tea leaves to suggest that White could be the team’s primary ball-carrier as soon as 2023.
Pick 123 - Los Angeles Chargers - Isaiah Spiller, RB, TAMU
The hype around Isaiah Spiller has always revolved around his production. He rushed for almost 950 yards as a freshman for Texas A&M, scoring 10 times. His next two seasons he rushed for over 1,000 yards each, though his touchdowns declined each season. He’s also showed a competence in the passing game, catching at least 20 passes each season in college. He’s also durable, having played double-digit games every year.
However, he’s a poor tester. His 4.63 forty-yard dash time was one of the slowest in the class, and his 1.59 10-yard split was also one of the slowest. His weight adjusted speed score placed him in the 27th percentile. This guy just might not have the speed and quickness to make it in the NFL. He’ll likely be competent if asked to play a role, but he does not appear to be special.
Pick 125 - Miami Dolphins - Erik Ezukanma, WR, Texas Tech
Ezukanma was one of the most difficult players for me to evaluate in this class. There were several wide receivers on the board at this point that I would have preferred to him, including Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, and Bo Melton.
Pick 127 - New England Patriots - Pierre Strong, RB, South Dakota State
The Patriots love to acquire running backs in the middle rounds and sprinkle them into their backfield rotation. Although an older RB prospect (23.28), he has an exciting blend of speed (4.37 forty) and hands (11.10% target share in college), which leads to a belief that he could be the long-term replacement for James White in New England.
Pick 131 - Tennessee Titans - Hassan Haskins, RB, Michigan
Kind of a surprising pick. Haskins doesn’t appear to have any standout traits. I had him as a 7th rounder/undrafted free agent type, and was very surprised to see him taken in the fourth. He projects as the direct backup for Derrick Henry.
Pick 132 - Green Bay Packers - Romeo Doubs, WR, Nevada
Note that the Packers have a wide open depth chart after the Davante Adams trade, and that Doubs also has the ability to return punts and kicks (average punt return of 12.5 yards in college). He’s should get an opportunity to compete immediately for the Packers.
Pick 137 - New England Patriots - Bailey Zappe, QB, WKU
Despite his stellar production at Western Kentucky in 2021 (62 TDs, an FBS record), it was surprising to see him get drafted at this slot, and even more surprising to see him drafted ahead of UNC’s Sam Howell. He has a popgun arm that likely will not translate to NFL success, and his path to meaningful snaps is blocked by last year’s first round pick, Mac Jones.
Pick 138 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis
Don’t be deceived by the blazing combine speed. This is a gadget player and punt/kick returner. Think “Tavon Austin.”
Pick 139 - Baltimore Ravens - Isaiah Likely, TE, Coastal Carolina
I include Likely in my overview only because he was drafted by the Ravens 11 picks after they chose another tight end, Charlie Kolar. I had Likely rated slightly higher, but his chances to make a meaningful impact took a hit by getting drafted to a team that is loading up on tight ends in this draft.
Pick 140 - Green Bay Packers - Zach Tom, iOL, Wake Forest
Mentioning this only because I loved the pick. Tom is an athletic freak and it would not be surprising at all if he ends up becoming a starter for the Packers.
ROUND 5
Pick 144 - Washington Commanders - Sam Howell, QB, UNC
Great value at this point in the draft. There was a time not so long ago, before the start of the 2021 season, where pundits pegged Howell as a top 5 pick in this draft. That did not come to fruition after he lost both of his starting wide receivers and both of his running backs (Michael Carter and Javonte Williams) to the 2021 NFL draft. However, his 2021 season was plenty good, and he took on a greater share of the rushing in the depleted Tar Heel offense. This won’t “feel” like a good landing spot to Howell, but it’s actually a really good situation because the bloom is off the rose with Carson Wentz. Howell could be given an opportunity if he practices well and Wentz falters, and there are some decent pass catching options for him in the nation’s capital in Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, and new first round pick Jahan Dotson. Also, don’t lose sight of the fact that he already should have chemistry with last year’s third round pick, Dyami Brown, who averaged over 20 yards per catch when Howell was throwing him the ball.
Pick 145 - Darrian Kinnard, OG, Kentucky
Apparently I know nothing about evaluating guards, as I had Kinnard rated as a second round talent who has the ability to kick out to tackle in a pinch. This selection could end up being a steal for the Chiefs, much like Trey Smith last year.
Pick 148 - Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State
What on earth is going on? How did Shakir make it to Round 5? I saw Shakir as a third-round talent. He commanded nearly ⅓ of the targets at Boise State, and has drawn comparison to former NFL standouts Golden Tate (playerprofiler) and Antwaan Randle El (NFL.com). He projects as a slot wide receiver and punt returner, and that’s just what the doctor ordered in Buffalo. Playing with Josh Allen will only boost his prospects.
Pick 151 - Atlanta Falcons - Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU
I’m much higher on Allgeier than I am on Dameon Pierce, who was taken 44 picks earlier. If there’s going to be a Day 3 running back who turns into a meaningful fantasy contributor in 2022, my money is on Allgeier. He’s just a bowling ball: 5’11, 224. Some are scared away by his forty time of 4.6, but not me. Speed isn’t his game, and he’s got a speed score of nearly 100, which is good enough. Plus, he is able to contribute in the passing game, as he had a 10% target share in college, which is typically my minimum threshold for fantasy backs. You also have to like the opportunity he’ll have in Atlanta. He will have only gadget player Cordarrelle Patterson and journeyman Damien Williams ahead of him on the depth chart. I don’t think he’ll unseat Patterson for the passing game work, at least early on (remember, Patterson is 31 and only started playing running back full time last year), but there’s a reasonable chance he could overtake Damien Williams (also over 30) for the early-down work, especially as the season wears on. I’m targeting him at the beginning of the third round in dynasty drafts.
Pick 153 - Seattle Seahawks - Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA
The unicorn. The NFL has never seen a corner like Woolen, dubbed by his teammates “Riq the Freak.” He’s 6’4 and runs a 4.26, with 33.625” arms. There are questions about his change of direction ability, but you have to love his raw speed. He is one of the few guys with the traits to match up with the Mike Evans-style behemoth wide receivers in the NFL.
Pick 154 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Snoop Conner, RB, Ole Miss
This is Travis Etienne’s backfield, with James Robinson sprinkled in once he’s healthy. This is solely James Robinson insurance. Robinson tore his Achilles, which historically has been essentially a career-ender for running backs.
Pick 156 - Cleveland Browns - Jerome Ford, RB, Cincinnati
I never saw the appeal with Ford. Not a special player, but likely on the NFL radar because he originally played for Alabama and got a lot of exposure this year with UC’s college football playoff run. It’s hard to see him getting touches in a suddenly-crowded backfield featuring Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D’Ernest Johnson, and Demetric Felton.
Pick 157 - Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State
Another insanely athletic cornerback prospect to keep an eye on. Very raw, but has all of the traits to succeed.
Pick 162 - Denver Broncos - Montrell Washington, WR, Samford
I’ve gotta admit . . . I’ve never heard of this guy.
Pick 163 - Tennessee Titans - Kyle Philips, WR, UCLA
This was one of my dudes entering into the draft, and I hate the landing spot. In recent history, the Titans have not made much use of slot wide receivers, and Philips projects as a slot-only type in the NFL. However, in my opinion he was the best punt returner in the draft class. He averaged 19.3 yards per punt return in college, which was tops among the receivers in this draft class. In terms of special teams ability, this was good value for the Titans in Round 5.
Pick 164 - Los Angeles Rams - Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame
Williams was a beast at Notre Dame but tumbled down draft boards due to size and speed concerns. He’ll be fine if he’s not asked to be a bell cow, and probably projects as the long-term replacement for Darrell Henderson in LA.
Pick 166 - Cincinnati Bengals - Tycen Anderson, S, Toledo
Mentioning this pick only because he was my favorite pick of the draft for the Bengals. He was tremendously productive in college in the MAC, with good ball production (2 picks, 16 pass breakups) and 233 tackles, tops among all drafted safeties in this class. He’s also big (6’2, 209) and fast (4.36 forty). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up starting for the Bengals as soon as 2023.
Pick 169 - Minnesota Vikings - Ty Chandler, RB, North Carolina
Opportunities will be limited as long as Dalvin Cook is in town (not to mention Alexander Mattison and Kene Nwangwu), but this dude is quick. His 1.46 10-yard split was tops in the class, and by a wide margin. If you get him a crease, he’s gone.
Pick 176 - Dallas Cowboys - Damone Clark, LB, LSU
This was a Day 2 talent who fell to Day 3 due to spinal surgery. If he can recover, he could be a steal.
ROUND 6
Pick 183 - New England Patriots - Kevin Harris, RB, South Carolina
I liked Harris a whole lot more before he tested. His 10-yard split of 1.66 seconds was worst in the class. He also heads to a very crowded backfield in New England; it would be surprising if he makes the active roster, rather than the practice squad, to start the season.
Pick 191 - Minnesota Vikings - Jalen Nailor, WR, Michigan State
There was nothing special about Nailor’s athletic profile, and I am avoiding him in dynasty drafts.
Pick 196 - Baltimore Ravens - Tyler Badie, RB, Mizzou
Love the opportunity and landing spot for Badie here. The Ravens’ top two ball-carriers, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, are coming off torn ACLs. Neither are known for their pass-catching prowess, which is Badie’s specialty. He’s undersized (5’8, 197 lbs.) but he had a target share about 18% in college, which is absolutely insane for a running back.
Pick 201 - Arizona Cardinals - Keaontay Ingram, RB, USC
Highly regarded recruit who just wasn’t all that productive in college. He’ll have a chance to earn the number 2 role behind James Conner, which historically has been valuable given how often Conner gets nicked up.
Pick 202 - Cleveland Browns - Mike Woods, WR, Oklahoma
I had an undrafted grade on Woods and won’t be touching him for fantasy purposes until he proves worthy of attention.
Pick 203 - Chicago Bears - Trestan Ebner, RB, Baylor
Pass-catching specialist who profiles as a direct replacement for Tarik Cohen.
Pick 221 - San Francisco 49ers - Tariq Castro-Fields, CB, Penn State
Another hyper-athletic prospect in the Zyon McCollum mold.
ROUND 7
Pick 229 - Seattle Seahawks - Bo Melton, WR, Rutgers
Absolutely shocked Melton fell this far. I had him as an early Day 3 prospect in the same mold as Danny Gray, who was the last pick of Day 2. Melton was pretty much the entirety of Rutgers’ passing offense. I don’t love the landing spot because of the crowded depth chart, but opportunity may present itself if the Sea Chickens decide to move on from DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett.
Pick 251 - Kansas City Chiefs - Isiah Pacheco, RB, Rutgers
This is a talented player and a decent landing spot. Apparently Rutgers’ players are falling to the 7th round of this draft, but Pacheco is better than a 7th round talent. He’s 5’10, 216 lbs, and ran a 4.37 forty-yard dash with a 1.49 ten yard split with an 8.2% target share. His speed score fo 118.5 was best in the class (Iowa State’s Breece Hall was second-best at 116.9, and he was the first back drafted). Add in the landing spot, and there’s a lot to like about Pacheco’s profile.