Gaining an Edge During the Off-Season
***Guest Column to Hail Mary Football by Dan Mattox***
The Super Bowl is over, Tom Brady adds yet another ring to his collection, and here we are, wondering what to do with our dynasty league rosters, how to plan for the draft this spring, and generally trying to stay engaged during this extended dead period. There is no off-season for fantasy managers in 2021. What do we do now? Fantasy WNBA? Fantasy NASCAR? Read a book? Spend time with our family? No, I say! Fantasy football is a 12-month commitment. That is, if you want to be successful. Do you? Who doesn’t? Losers, that’s who! And here at Hail Mary Football there are no losers! So with that in mind, I’m laying down five strategies to keep in mind as you evaluate talent and formulate a plan for your 2021 fantasy football leagues.
1. Pay attention. I’m not saying you need to track the free agent movements of every player. That’s bananas, and will distract you from your fantasy WNBA teams. What I’m saying is, track your players. If you are in a dynasty or keeper league, pay attention to the rumors and movement of your players. Often times a guy you lightly regard in February changes situations and assumes a role somewhere else that will demand your attention come draft day. Don’t be the owner that overlooks this guy. Otherwise, when he blows up in the right situation, you will be kicking yourself with regret.
2. Scout. Watch the combine (okay, so there’s no combine this year), and keep up with pro days. We hear the big names: Trevor Lawrence, Devonta Smith, Najee Harris, et al., but there are numerous guys that significantly increase their stock either by pro days or their draft destination. A guy like Travis Etienne is a great draft pick regardless of where he lands, but a guy like Chuba Hubbard, who has been slipping, might be a difference maker in the right offense. If a player like Hubbard lands somewhere like Pittsburgh and you are paying attention, you could land a league winning player in the middle rounds. How good does being right feel?
3. Fade bad quarterback play. Avoid receivers with bad quarterbacks. Ok, full disclosure. This has been my bugaboo for some time. I tell myself year after year to fade guys with questionable quarterbacks. Do I listen to myself? Of course not!! How am I supposed to deny the siren song of Allen Robinson? How does one rebuke a guy like DJ Chark? DJ Moore? Are you kidding me? Well, despite the obvious supreme talent, bad coaching and quarterback play can nullify the talent and result in a very good receiver posting very average WR 2 numbers. Steer clear. If at all possible tether your receiver corp to quality quarterbacks.
4. The schedule matters. During the early portion of the season, teams will be struggling with identity, injuries, etc. and may not reflect what kind of defense they are. Around Thanksgiving, we have enough data to discern the strength or weakness of a particular defense. That’s your cue to swoop in and buy! A great example: an owner in my home league swooped in and snagged David Montgomery for cheap right before his schedule eased up in 2020. How was he rewarded? Monty balled out, and this owner finished with a nice payday! (Jellybeans, of course. Gambling for money would be illegal.) Don’t be afraid to deal for an average player when he is facing a cupcake schedule down the stretch.
5. Think outside the box. By following this site, you’re probably already doing this, but just hear me out. So many experts preach the mantra of “start your studs.” While I generally agree with that philosophy, its also wise practice to stay flexible. More often than not, things are what they look like they are. However there are instances when conventional wisdom says one thing, but your gut says another. Should you go with your gut 100% of the time? Of course not, but sometimes taking a step back and looking at a situation in a vacuum can lead to clarity, and an unorthodox decision that could win you a week. Don’t just assume one outcome. Use your critical eye and decide from there. A good example would be last year when the Seahawks were perceived to have a dreadful defense based on the season’s early returns - but that completely changed once they traded for Carlos Dunlap. When making start/sit decisions, you were probably rewarded when you accounted for the “Dunlap factor” rather than just relying on the total season averages for the Hawks. They were much better down the stretch than their bottom-five ranking indicated.
These are a few alternative viewpoints to perhaps broaden your awareness and help you to think in a more contrarian fashion moving forward. Apply this methodology - and use your own research and common sense - to reap the benefits of an off-season well spent!