Potential Salary Cap Cuts: New York Jets
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the New York Jets.
Cap Liabilities: $143,170,732
Cap Space: $63,475,814
Potential Cut Candidates
Jamison Crowder, WR, 27
Cap #: $11.375M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $10.375M
Likely to be cut? No. Although Crowder has the highest cap number on the team, he’s one of the only reliable pass-catchers in an offense sorely lacking them. He’s a great safety valve for Sam Darnold - or whatever QB the Jets may have under center in 2021.
Henry Anderson, DL, 29
Cap #: $9,533,334
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1,333,334
Cap Savings: $8.2M
Likely to be cut? No. Anderson is overpaid, but this is a roster with plenty of cap room and tons of holes on defense. Although Anderson isn’t a star, he’s a useful player, and the Jets need as many of those as they can find right now.
George Fant, RT, 28
Cap #: $9.35M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $8.35M
LIkely to be cut? Probably yes, but it’s a tough call. You know you’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel when you signed a Seahawks castoff to anchor your offensive line, since the Hawks’ line hasn’t been known for being all that and a bag of potato chips. But it’s a fairly weak free agent class at right tackle (other than Taylor Moton, who is likely to be franchised by the Panthers), so with no other alternatives, it’s possible that Gang Green keeps Fant for another season. My gut, though, tells me that they’re likely to roll with (the significantly cheaper) Chuma Edoga, who graded out similarly to Fant in the Pro Football Focus grades. If the production is the same, why keep the older, more expensive guy? Let the young kid play and see if he improves.
Alex Lewis, LG, 28
Cap #: $6,858,333
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $833,333
Cap Savings: $6.025M
Likely to be cut? Yes. When you’re a league-average guard, you don’t justify a $7M salary. They can probably get a similar level of production from a replacement player, for a fraction of the cost.
Greg Van Roten, RG, 30
Cap #: $3,656,250
Guaranteed: $250K
Dead Money: $250K
Cap Savings: $3,406,250
Likely to be cut? Probably not. His salary is reasonable, and he’s not atrocious. He’s likely to be back for another season.
Josh Doctson, WR, 28
Cap #: $985K
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $985K
Likely to be cut? Yes. Although the Jets are desperate for pass-catchers, you likely don’t curry any favors by opting out and have never really done anything in the NFL.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Fant, Lewis, and Doctson would free up an additional $15.36M, for a total of almost $79M in cap space. That would give GM Joe Douglas and HC Robert Saleh the ammunition they need to restock a depleted roster by attacking the free agent market. Since the cap lowered this year from $198.2M to about $180M, there are going to be (a) more teams cutting players that they didn’t anticipate cutting, thus flooding the market, and (b) more players willing to take cheap, “below market” deals just to ensure they get on a roster in 2021. It is going to be a buyers market, plain and simple, and the Jets are going to be buyers.