Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Denver Broncos
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Denver Broncos.
Cap Liabilities: $170,225,393
Cap Space: $31,137,021
Potential Cut Candidates
Jurrell Casey, iDL, 31
Cap #: $11,874,750
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $11,874,750
Likely to be cut? Yes. It’s almost too easy when you’ve got a player with an 8-figure salary who is over the age of 30 and has no guaranteed money. They have very little invested in Casey, having traded only a 7th round pick to get him last year. They can move on pretty easily and give the snaps to a younger player, or bring back Casey on a reduced deal.
Bryce Callahan, CB, 29
Cap #: $8,333,334
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1,333,334
Cap Savings: $7M
Likely to be cut? No. With the release of A.J. Bouye, corner is a need area for the Broncos. They cannot leave the cupboard even more bare than it already is. I think it’s likely that they spend their first round pick on a corner, but they’ll still need Callahan.
Mike Purcell, DE, 29
Cap #: $3,687,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $187,500
Cap Savings: $3.5M
Likely to be cut? Probably not. They have plenty of cap room, and he doesn’t make an outrageous salary.
Jeff Driskel, QB, 27
Cap #: $3.25M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $750K
Cap Savings: $2.5M
Likely to be cut? Yes, assuming they bring in another passer this off-season. Remember that they have a new GM now, George Paton, who inherited Drew Lock from John Elway. I’m not yet sold that the Broncos have bought into Lock as “the guy,” and I think they will try to improve the QB room in the off-season. If another guy is brought in to start, or at least compete, that moves Lock to number 2 on the depth chart, and moves Driskel off the roster.
Von Miller, LB, 31
Cap #: $22.125M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $4.125M
Cap Savings: $18M
Likely to be cut? Bye Felicia! When you combine age with declining play with injury and an off-season arrest, you ain’t hanging around at a $22M cap hit. It’s time for Denver to move on.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
I was disappointed when Denver started making early cuts this offseason, because my notes from several weeks ago had A.J. Bouye as a likely cut - and then the Broncos went and cut him before I had a chance to write the article. His release cleared nearly $14M in cap space. If they end up cutting Casey, Driskel, and Miller, it would free up an additional $32M, which would set them up to be major players in free agency this year, with a total of $63M available to spend. The first order of business will be figuring out what to do at safety, as both Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons are free agents. You’d assume that 27-year-old Simmons isn’t going anywhere, but it’s hard to see Denver bringing back Jackson as well. What they do at QB will also have an affect on how much available cap space they have, as there are rumors that they are players in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes.