Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Tennessee Titans
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Tennessee Titans.
Cap Liabilities: $183,818,558
Cap Space: $1,897,764
Potential Cut Candidates
Malcolm Butler, CB, 30
Cap #: $14.2M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2M
Cap Savings: $12.2M
Likely to be cut? No. He’s got a high salary, but his play justifies it. He’s their most reliable corner. He should be back in Tennessee for another season.
Rodger Saffold, OG, 32
Cap #: $12,343,750
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.375M
Cap Savings: $9,968,750
Likely to be cut? Yes. On a team that’s in a bind for cap space, it makes sense to part with an aging interior linemen who is among the highest paid at his position.
Kenny Vaccaro, S, 29
Cap #: $6,906,250
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.5M
Cap Savings: $5,406,250
Likely to be cut? Probably not. He’s never lived up to his first round pedigree, but he makes a reasonable salary for a veteran safety.
Kevin Byard, S, 27
Cap #: $15.03M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $3.33M
Cap Savings: $11.7M
Likely to be cut? No. Byard is part of the Titans’ young core. You always retain your young core.
Taylor Lewan, LT, 29
Cap #: $13,696,471
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2,096,471
Cap Savings: $11.6M
Likely to be cut? No. Come on. This is the NFL. When is the last time a quality left tackle was cut?
Adoree Jackson, CB, 25
Cap #: $10.244M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $10.244M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Maybe this is a hot take, but Jackson hasn’t been a good player. The Titans defense was #notgreat last year. They’d be better served letting go of this Jackson and making a run at someone like the Bengals’ William Jackson, who should cost only slightly more than Adoree.
Potential Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Saffold and Adoree Jackson should save more than $20M, which would give them ample room to sign the rookie draft class while making a run at retaining free agent tight end Jonnu Smith. Given their current situation, they do not appear to be significant players in free agency. The finances have them in a bind.