2021 Post-Draft Thoughts: Round 1
These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2021 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with Round 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson. The most anti-climactic first round pick in recent memory. Lawrence has been the presumed first overall pick in the 2021 draft since he signed with Clemson. This will likely be the first time in the Jaguars’ 25-year history that they’ll have a legitimate QB1 under center.
New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU. Everyone has been ga-ga over Wilson since his pro day, whipping it over 60 yards down the field while throwing across his body. You know who else had impressive pro days showing off a cannon arm? Jamarcus Russell and Kyle Boller. Wilson may end up being legit, who knows. But I’m not entirely sold on him, and I think it was a mistake to draft him here. My favorite non-Lawrence QB in this draft is Trey Lance, and that’s who I think the Jets should have taken. I would not be surprised if they are again in the QB market within the next 4-5 years. Plus, Wilson looks like he’s one pink-polo-popped-collar short of being the president of a college frat. Hard to like this guy right now.
San Francisco 49ers - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State. Love, love, LOVE the pick! When San Francisco traded three first round picks several weeks prior to the draft, rumor was that the quarterback they loved was Mac Jones. I never believed it. Jones is fine for what he is - a highly accurate, noodle-armed passer - but Lance is everything you want in a modern NFL quarterback. He’s big (not Cam Newton big or Josh Allen big, but big enough). He has rushing ability. He makes good decisions. He is accurate. He takes care of the football. He’s a winner. He’s young (not yet 21 years old). And he’s a football nerd (his weekly preparation regimen is already at an NFL level in terms of his film study). The only knocks on this kid are competition level in college and lack of starts. Say what you will about the competition level, but at least he played on the winningest team at that level. And it’s not like North Dakota State is incapable of producing competent NFL quarterbacks - Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate before he shredded his knee. And the lack of starts doesn’t bother me. It’s not his fault his season was mostly cancelled due to COVID-19. There are plenty of starting QBs in the NFL who started fewer games than Lance. And matching him up with the creative Kyle Shanahan? This is the perfect landing spot. Lance’s future is very, very bright.
Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida. Pitts has been oft-described as a “generational” tight end. Well, he’d better be. Tight ends just don’t get drafted Top 5. For him to warrant this kind of pick, he’d better be special. This kind of draft capital should be spent on more meaningful positions like quarterback, pass rusher, corner, or elite wide receiver. To this point: only two teams that spent a first round pick on a tight end have won a Super Bowl in the past 20 years: New England (Ben Watson) and Tampa Bay (OJ Howard). The common denominator on those teams is Tom Brady. The tight end really had nothing to do with those championships. On most teams, the tight end just doesn’t matter enough to make a meaningful difference. Pitts is going to have to be a true unicorn to justify this pick.
Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU. For months, the debate raged between #teamchase and #teamsewell. I was originally in the latter camp. We had just seen Joe Burrow’s knee get destroyed behind a leaky offensive line. We are still stinging from letting Andrew Whitworth walk and seeing him play at a pro bowl level for the Rams into his late 30s. We are still salty about drafting Cedric Go-by-me and Jake Fisher. This team needs offensive linemen, badly. And quality linemen are much more difficult to find than quality wide receivers. Top-20 wide receivers in their prime hit the market seemingly every year. Top-20 offensive tackles don’t, unless they’re nearing the end of the line. And so that’s why I wanted Penei Sewell . . . . And then his pro day happened. And instead of being the second coming of Anthony Munoz, he was shorter than advertised, and had stubbier arms than advertised. And I’m sorry, but if I’m spending a top 5 pick on an offensive linemen, he’d better have 34” arms. And Sewell didn’t. So I started considering Ja’Marr Chase. Chase set all of the SEC TD records in college… catching passes from Joe Burrow. He was a better receiver than teammate Justin Jefferson, who just had one of the best rookie seasons by a WR in NFL history. And he’s got deep speed - the one element the Bengals offense is really lacking. Ja’Marr Chase is a blue chip talent. Penei Sewell is not. When you are picking in the top 5, you need to take the blue chip talent, regardless of position. And so, that’s how I wound up on #teamchase. I am very happy with this pick, and I think Bengals fans will be over the long term, as well.
Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama. Miami needed a weapon, and they got one. Although I bet they were hoping for Pitts or Chase, Waddle is a decent enough consolation prize. He’s undersized though, and it is rarely a good idea to take sub-6’0 wide receivers with first round picks, let alone top 10 picks. Waddle started fewer than 10 games in college, which does give me pause. However, he outperformed Heisman-winning teammate Devonta Smith when both were healthy, and he also has the special teams experience to give Miami a boost in the return game.
Detroit Lions - Penei Sewell, LT, Oregon. This seems like a fair spot for Sewell. With Detroit transitioning to Jared Goff at QB, they’re going to need to make sure he has stable blocking in front of him. I suspect Sewell will be asked to play right tackle in the Motor City, since Taylor Decker has locked down the left side. But with Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams slated as the starting outside receivers, it’s probably going to be a pretty ugly offense in Detroit this year.
Carolina Panthers - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina. This was the first “curveball” of the draft. The Panthers traded for Sam Darnold a week or two prior to the draft, but there was still some speculation they could look to a signal-caller. Alternatively, they were commonly linked to some of the top offensive tackles in the draft, such as Sewell and Rashawn Slater, since LT Greg Little has been such a massive bust. Instead, they were the first team in the draft to select a defensive player. Going into the draft, the groupthink was that fellow cornerback Patrick Surtain would be the first defender chosen, so it was interesting to see Carolina go against the grain here. I like the pick and then Horn will be a great pro. He has a good 40 time and tremendously long arms compared to the rest of the corners in this class, and those two measurables have a high correlation with NFL success.
Denver Broncos - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama. Another curveball. The Drew Lock experiment hasn’t gone as planned through two years in Denver, and many draftniks assumed that the Broncos would pivot to a young signal-caller like Justin Fields. No dice. Instead, the Broncos trade a sixth round pick for Teddy Bridgewater to compete with Lock so that they can spend the ninth overall pick on Surtain. He is a much-needed reinforcement to an aging secondary, especially after the release of boundary corner A.J. Bouye.
Philadelphia Eagles - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama. After moving from pick 3 to pick 12 several weeks before the draft in exchange for 3 first round picks from San Francisco, the Eagles swapped picks with the division-rival Cowboys to get ahead of the division-rival Giants to get Devonta Smith, the Heisman trophy winner. Count me among those who is skeptical of Smith. There just aren’t a whole lot of guys at his size who have succeeded in the NFL. Originally thought to be 6’0 and a slender 175 pounds, he weighed in at the combine medical rechecks as 166 pounds. People always give Marvin Harrison as the example of a slender wide receiver who can succeed in the NFL, but Harrison was 181 pounds at the combine weigh-ins. If Harrison was considered “slender” at that size, Smith is downright puny. My general rule with first round draft picks is “don’t bet on outliers.” Smith is an outlier. Could he be successful? Absolutely. If you watch the dude play you know he’s talented. But if I were an NFL GM, I wouldn’t have the fortitude to bet my job on his outlier production continuing in the NFL.
Chicago Bears - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State. After the Eagles sniped them, the Giants dropped down to pick no. 20 so that the Bears could come up and grab Justin Fields. The criticisms against Fields in the pre-draft process were his play processing speed and ability to go through multiple reads in the NFL. If those concerns were overblown, Chicago has a bona fide QB on its hands. If those concerns were well-founded, they’ve got another Mitch Trubisky.
Dallas Cowboys - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State. Sean Lee announced his retirement earlier this week, so this seems to be a one-for-one replacement. Parsons was widely regarded as one of the top five defensive players in the draft, so this is good value.
Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, LT, Northwestern. The Chargers had a gaping hole on their depth chart for Justin Herbert’s blindside protector, so they get incredibly lucky that Slater falls right into their laps. I preferred Christian Darrisaw due to his superior arm length, but Slater is battle tested and fundamentally sound.
New York Jets - Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC. What an awful pick. Not because the player is bad - he is actually quite good, and was the consensus #1 guard in the draft - but because of what it took New York to make this pick. To trade up 9 spots with the Vikings, they had to give up two third round picks (including the second pick in the third round this year). It was a high cost to get a non-premium position. The silver lining is that at least it means they are committed to protecting new face-of-the-franchise Zach Wilson. But yeesh. They moved up in the NFL draft to get a guard, in a year that the greatest depth in the draft was at guard.
New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama. I think this guy has a floor as Jake Fromm and a ceiling as Andy Dalton. That doesn’t excite me with a first round pick. Everything was always perfect for him at Alabama, and he had the best receivers in the country. We’ll see if he has similar success in New England, with top wideouts of Nelson Agholor, N’Keal Harry, and Kendrick Bourne. Oh yeah, that Foxboro weather is just a wee bit different than Tuscaloosa, too.
Arizona Cardinals - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa. Collins is huge for a linebacker (260-270 pounds), which makes him attractive from a “looks good in the uniform” perspective. But you have to wonder why a team with glaring needs at CB, WR, and RB spent its first round pick on a linebacker after spending last year’s first round pick on a linebacker.
Las Vegas Raiders - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama. At this point, Mike Mayock has just become a caricature of himself. A meme. He and Gruden seem to have no sense of relative value. They decide that they like a guy and just go grab him, regardless of whether the rest of the league views him as a second round value. They overdrafted Clelin Ferrill in 2019, they overdrafted Damon Arnette in 2020, and they overdraft Leatherwood here. Also, it’s become clear that they really only want players from Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State with their early round picks. Come on, guys, be better. And all that aside, Leatherwood really presents some serious concerns for me. Sure, he was an All-American. But at left tackle. Vegas already has a left tackle in Kolton Miller. Are you going to ask him to play right tackle? Well, ok, but he’s never played that position before in his life. I’m also concerned by the fact that he was apparently eaten alive by opposing rushers during Senior Bowl week. That’s often an indicator that a guy can’t hack it against NFL-level talent.
Miami Dolphins - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami. Injury concerns abound for Phillips - he was forced to retire from UCLA due to concussions - and there are questions about how much he loves football after he entered community college following his UCLA stint to focus on a music career. But when Phillips put the pads back on at Miami, he balled out. He’s got great size and production for the position, so if he can stay healthy and focused on football, this should be a good fit for Miami.
Washington Football Team - Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky. Eschewing their needs at left tackle and quarterback, Washington grabs a linebacker. But my oh my is he a good one! The Football Team already had a formidable defense, but Davis may be the missing piece they need to make them one of the all-time greats. Everywhere he’s coached, Ron Rivera has prioritized linebacker play - go figure, the dude was a linebacker on an all time great defense - and the trend continues in Washington.
New York Giants - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida. This was a puzzling pick. New York just went out and spent big dollars on Kenny Golladay this offseason, they still have Darius Slayton on the other side, and they have Sterling Shepard (and TE Evan Engram) in the slot. It seemed like a bit of a luxury pick to be taking a fourth wide receiver with their first round pick. Their draft room didn’t look all that excited after their card had been turned in. Apparently Toney is more focused on his rapping career than football, which is a huge red flag. He also had some gun-related incidents in college. The character issues were too much for me when I did my predraft scouting, and I would not have had him on my draft board. The stop-start twitch he has is undeniable, though.
Indianapolis Colts - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan. Colts GM Chris Ballard has proven to be one of the savviest executives in football, so he’s earned every benefit of the doubt when it comes to the draft. But spending a first round pick on an undersized defensive end when you have no left tackle on your roster on just traded for a veteran QB doesn’t seem like great strategy. Clearly, Ballard was looking to get the best player available here versus the position of greatest need, but it’s not going to matter how good Paye is if Carson Wentz gets clobbered from his blind side every Sunday. Paye is a concerning prospect as well. He didn’t have elite sack production in college, and he did not run the three cone drill at his pro day, which is the drill most closely correlated to NFL success for pass rushers. This seems like a fairly risky pick from a GM who is typically fairly risk-averse.
Tennessee Titans - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech. Excellent pick by the Titans. This is reminiscent of 2019, when they snagged a falling Jeffery Simmons due to a knee injury. During mock draft season, Farley was widely projected as the first CB off the board and a top 10 pick until it was learned that he had a microdiskectomy a few weeks before the draft. I’m always wary of players with back issues, but if he’s healthy, this could be the steal of the first round.
Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, LT, Virginia Tech. Bear in mind that the Vikings’ biggest need heading into this draft was left tackle, and they traded down 9 spots with the Jets to get in this spot. The player they needed fell right into their laps. Darrisaw has 34.5” arms, which is excellent for a left tackle, and he put up some very good tape in college. Great pick for the Vikes.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama. Was there any team-player pairing more widely expected after the first pick than Harris to the Steelers? This one made too much sense, with the depth chart consisting only of Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland. That said, it is almost always a bad value proposition to select running backs with first round picks. The opportunity cost is just too great, as it forces you to pass up players at more premium positions. The Steelers had greater needs along the offensive line and in the secondary, but GM Kevin Colbert just couldn’t help himself. Harris goes from being the #1 running back in his recruiting class to the #1 running back taken in the NFL draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson. What. A. Stupid. Pick. It’s always a bad idea to take running backs with first round picks (see above), but it’s an even worse idea when you’re a rebuilding team and have holes all over your roster. And it’s the worst idea of all when you’re already set at running back. Undrafted free agent James Robinson was a revelation last year, and was a top-10 fantasy running back. They signed competent veteran Carlos Hyde in the offseason to spell him. Why use premium draft capital on Etienne? This just goes back to new head coach Urban Meyer’s obsession with speed. Etienne can leave defenders in his wake in a way that Robinson just can’t. But at what (opportunity) cost? This was the pick that the Jaguars got from the Rams for Jalen Ramsey. Getting a timeshare running back makes that trade seem really bad in hindsight.
Cleveland Browns - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern. Excellent pick for the Browns, where need meets value. Although Newsome has a slight build, he is an excellent corner. His ball production leaves a bit to be desired, but he should slot in nicely as a CB2 opposite Denzel Ward.
Baltimore Ravens - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota. Poor Rashod Bateman. Baltimore’s high-volume running attack (because of Lamar Jackson’s inconsistencies as a passer) just kill wide receivers’ overall production. He fills a need for the Ravens, but this is a bad landing spot for a talented player.
New Orleans Saints - Payton Turner, DE, Houston. This was widely considered the biggest reach of the first round, as Turner was routinely projected as a third round pick. There were rumors that New Orleans had been trying to trade into the top 10. We may never know who they truly wanted, although my suspicion is that it was Horn or Surtain.
Green Bay Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia. I was probably one of the few who viewed Stokes as a potential first round pick. i don’t know if he has the ability to live up to this slot, but his measurables suggest he has a decent shot. Generally speaking, you want corners with long arms (above 32”) and good speed. Stokes has 32.75” arms and ran the second-fastest 40 time in the class at 4.34 seconds.
Buffalo Bills - Greg Rousseau, DE, Miami. I wasn’t sure what to do with this cat. His 2019 production was stellar (second in sacks in the nation behind Chase Young), but he opted out of 2020 and his pro day testing was awful. He’s a big dude though, and he has the ability to kick inside to tackle on passing downs. It’s probably a good risk/reward scenario for Buffalo at this point in the draft, especially since Ed Oliver hasn’t yet panned out as hoped and Jerry Hughes is on the back 9.
Baltimore Ravens - Odafe “Jayson” Oweh, EDGE, Penn State. I was so bummed by this pick. As a Bengal fan, I really wanted Oweh to be there for them in Round 2. The red flag on him is that he didn’t have any sacks his final year in college, but I’m willing to overlook that because he showed up in other stats that showed disruption (hurries, QB hits) and his athletic testing is jaw-dropping. Specifically, he is 6’5 and had a 6.84 three-cone drill. For pass rushers, anything below 6.9 is considered elite, and he’s the only guy in this class who hit that mark. He should be a future pro bowler.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington. Tryon has the protypical size, speed, and burst that you like to see out of edge rushers. It looks like Tampa Bay may plan on trying him out at linebacker, a position he hasn’t played before. I don’t like making projections with first round picks, so there is definitely some bust potential here.