Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Jacksonville Jaguars

INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.

There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.

Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.

Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.

This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Cap Liabilities: $129,006,442

Cap Space: $82,022,150

Potential Cut Candidates

1. Myles Jack, LB, 25

   • Cap #: $12.15M

   • Guaranteed: $0

   • Dead Money: $2.4M

   • Cap Savings:  $9.75M

   • Likely to be cut? No. Jack is in his prime, and he provides veteran leadership for a team that sorely needs it.

2. Andrew Norwell, LG, 29

   • Cap #: $15M

   • Guaranteed: $0

   • Dead Money: $3M

   • Cap Savings:  $12M

   • Likely to be cut? Yes. Norwell never delivered on the massive contract he signed in free agency. Jacksonville can find a similarly-skilled guard in free agency for half the cost.

3. Brandon Linder, C, 28

   • Cap #: $8,562,500

   • Guaranteed: $0 

   • Dead Money: $0

   • Cap Savings:  $8,562,500

   • Likely to be cut? No, unless an upgrade can be found in free agency. Linder is overpaid, but not grossly so, and there isn’t an obvious replacement on the roster.

4. A.J. Cann, RG, 29

   • Cap #: $6,292,709

   • Guaranteed: $0

   • Dead Money: $1,333,334

   • Cap Savings:  $4,959,375

   • Likely to be cut? Yes. The drafting of Ben Bartch in Round 4 of last year’s draft likely signaled the end of Cann’s run in Jacksonville.

Potential Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made

The Jaguars have already started making moves, clearing out $5M by parting ways with TE Tyler Eifert. If they also cut starting guards Norwell and Cann, they’ll save about $17M more against the cap, giving them more than $100M to spend this off-season. They could (and should) be major, major players in free agency this year, and should do everything possible to make life easy for first-year head coach Urban Meyer and #1 pick Trevor Lawrence.