Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Miami Dolphins
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Miami Dolphins.
Cap Liabilities: $170,689,910
Cap Space: $23,839,465
Potential Cut Candidates
Kyle Van Noy, LB, 29
Cap #: $13.9M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.375M
Cap Savings: $12.525M
Likely to be cut? Yes. 30-year-old journeyman middle linebackers aren’t worth a $14M cap hit. He could be brought back at a reduced number, but $14M ain’t gonna fly.
Xavien Howard, CB, 27
Cap #: $13.5M
Guaranteed: $)
Dead Money: $1.4M
Cap Savings: $12.1M
Likely to be cut? Probably not, but I don’t think a trade is out of the cards. The signed Byron Jones to a big money deal last off-season, and then spent a first round pick on Noah Igbinoghene. If the team looks to make a move for a quarterback (like Deshaun Watson), I bet Howard is part of the deal.
Bobby McCain, S, 27
Cap #: $7.14M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $740,400
Cap Savings: $6.4M
Likely to be cut? No. McCain is one of the few homegrown young talents they have on defense, and although his contract is probably slightly higher than his play justifies, it’s reasonable enough to live with.
Devante Parker, WR, 27 (unlikely - no other pass catching threats)
Cap #: $11.05M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.7M
Cap Savings: $8.35M
Likely to be cut? No. He’s not going anywhere. This team is completely devoid of pass-catching talent. He’s the surest thing they’ve got, so he’ll be back for another season.
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, 27
Cap #: $7.5M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $7.5M
Likely to be cut? No. Although Ogbah could be cut and have his entire contract come off the books, he had the best season of his career in 2020, compiling 9 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 5 passes defensed, 3 forced fumbles, and 21 quarterback hits. He’s a good value at his salary if he can repeat that kind of production.
Jakeem Grant, WR, 28
Cap #: $4.75M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $600K
Cap Savings: $4.15M
Likely to be cut? Almost assuredly. I was shocked to learn that Grant will be 29 years old next season. He’s undersized, plays a position (slot) that Albert Wilson will be returning to play, and does not justify a $4M salary. He’s as good as gone.
Eric Rowe, S, 28
Cap #: $5.05M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $525K
Cap Savings: $4.525M
Likely to be cut? Probably yes, but his Patriot days and familiarity with Brian Flores may save him. He’s a versatile player with abilities both at safety and corner, but he’s a journeyman at this stage of his career, and journeymen typically get their walking papers on cutdown day.
Total Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Van Noy, Grant, and Rowe would free up an additional $21.2M, bringing the total available to a hair more than $45M. If they include Xavien Howard in a trade for Deshaun Watson, their cap hits for 2021 essentially offset, so the Dolphins would still have $45M to improve the roster and sign the rookie class, and potentially roll some of Watson’s cap hit into this season.
Now, some readers might be wondering why I didn’t include DE Shaq Lawson or OG Ereck Flowers in the potential cuts, given their lofty contracts. The answer is simple: Miami is stuck with them. Lawson had only 4 sacks in 2020 and carries a $9.8M cap hit, but he’s got $8M guaranteed (i.e., “real money”) this season, so he’s not going anywhere. Similarly with Flowers, although he has a $10M cap hit, he’s got almost $9M guaranteed. Owners don’t like to pay players massive sums not to play for them, so those guys are back at least for 2021. In 2022, they won’t have any guaranteed money left on their deals and will likely be cut then.