Potential Salary Cap Cuts: New England Patriots
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the New England Patriots.
Cap Liabilities: $146,000,582
Cap Space: $57,310,665
Potential Cut Candidates
Marcus Cannon, RT, 32
Cap #: $9,622,918
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2,566,668
Cap Savings: $7,056,250
Likely to be cut? Yes. Cannon has never been a stellar player in the league, and he’ll be 33 next season. He opted out of the 2020 season (he is high risk due to being a cancer survivor), and his replacement at RT, Jermaine Eluemunor, was serviceable. They also have Yodny Cajuste as a fallback option. For these reasons, Cannon’s time in Foxboro has likely come to an end.
Akeem Spence, DT, 29
Cap #: $1,987,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $62,500
Cap Savings: $1,925,000
Likely to be cut? Probably not. Although he’s an aging player, his cap number is low enough to justify a return, and they’re not in dire need of space.
Dont’a Hightower, LB, 30
Cap #: $12,445,313
Guaranteed: $1.125M
Dead Money: $2.5M
Cap Savings: $9,945,313
Likely to be cut? Probably not, though this is the toughest decision. Hightower opted out of the 2020 season, so he likely did not endear himself to the organization, and he now has a pretty steep cap number for a linebacker. Bill Belichick has never been shy in the past about cutting ties with aging veterans - even those that are homegrown talent. What I think saves Hightower here, in addition to their ample cap space, is how much the defense regressed from 2019 to 2020. Hightower should theoretically be able to provide stability to the defense as its captain and signal-caller.
Dan Vitale, FB, 26
Cap #: $1,287,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $100K
Cap Savings: $1,187,500
Likely to be cut? No. He makes a reasonable salary and is still in his prime, and he’s the only fullback on the roster.
Brandon Bolden, RB, 30
Cap #: $1,987,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $500K
Cap Savings: $1,487,500
Likely to be cut? Yes. Bolden has been a valuable special teamer for many years, but this is a roster spot that would likely best be used on a younger player. They’ve parted ways with Bolden before.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
With respect to the salary cap, the Patriots are in great shape. They don’t have to make any cuts at all if they don’t want to. If they do make the cuts anticipated in this article, they will have a total of $65,853,915 in cap space. The big elephant in the room, of course, is what they will do at quarterback. But with all the cap room they have, it would be fairly easy for them to absorb the contract of one of the veteran quarterbacks who will be available this offseason, such as Deshaun Watson or Matthew Stafford (though they likely don’t have the draft capital to make a run at Watson). Also, they will need to decide whether to retain free agent left guard Joe Thuney, who played this past season under the franchise tag. Even if they trade for a quarterback like Stafford ($33M), re-sign Thuney ($10M), and set aside $12M for the rookie class, they’ll still have $10M or so to spend in free agency. They’re in really good shape.