Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Buffalo Bills
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Buffalo Bills.
Cap Liabilities: $178,482,931
Cap Space: $1,289,024
Potential Cut Candidates
Mario Addison, DE, 33
Cap #: $10.225M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2M
Cap Savings: $8.225M
Likely to be cut? Probably. It’s going to be him or Jerry Hughes, and Hughes is a year younger and carries a lower cap number (although Addison is the one who has the prior relationship with HC Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane from their Panthers days). The Bills drafted A.J. Epenesa in Round 2 last year to be a starter at defensive end, so it’s difficult to see them bringing back two high-priced ends over the age of 30.
John Brown, WR, 30
Cap #: $9.75M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.6M
Cap Savings: $8.15M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Brown missed stretches of the season and the offense didn’t really miss a beat without him, and they have rising sophomore Gabriel Davis waiting in the wings to take over Brown’s spot. Given his cap number, this is a pretty easy cut. Even if they want a veteran wide receiver, the market should be flush with cheap talent at wideout this off-season.
Jerry Hughes, DE, 32
Cap #: $9.45M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.1M
Cap Savings: $7.35M
Likely to be cut? Probably not, but as noted, it’s him or Addison. It’s hard to see them bringing back two high priced veteran defensive ends who aren’t big sack producers at this point in their careers.
Jordan Poyer, S, 29
Cap #: $7.875M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $6.875M
Likely to be cut? No. His salary is reasonable relative to his performance, and he’s just going to be turning 30 next year. It makes sense to keep him for one more season.
Vernon Butler, DT, 26
Cap #: $7.85M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $6.85M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Remember, Star Lotulelei opted out in 2020 due to his heart condition, but Lotulelei’s roster spot is probably safe in 2021 because he carries a $7.1M dead money hit if released. There’s really no reason to keep both Butler and Lotulelei, as they play the same position, and the savings on cutting Butler would be significant. He’s never been an impact player, anyway.
Cole Beasley, WR, 31
Cap #: $7,368,750
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.5M
Cap Savings: $5,868,750
Likely to be cut? No. The salary is reasonable for what he brings to this team as a slot receiver, and playing through a broken fibula at the end of 2020 likely endeared him to the organization. It’s always possible that they cut him, but he provides a nice safety blanket for Josh Allen and this offense really took off in 2020, so it would likely help Allen build on that success by returning the key pieces from this past year.
Quinton Jefferson, DT, 27
Cap #: $8M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $8M
Likely to be cut? No. Although the numbers suggest he’d be an easy cut, Jefferson is a good, young player that they can plug in next to Star Lotulelei since Ed Oliver hasn’t panned out quite as expected.
Micah Hyde, S, 30
Cap #: $6.75M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.6M
Cap Savings: $5.15M
Likely to be cut? Yes, but it’s close. His PFF grade slipped to 68.7 this past season, and defensive backs over the age of 30 are never safe. Clearing his salary may help them to extend Josh Allen this offseason and move some of the cap hit into 2021.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
If they cut Addison, Brown, Butler, and Hyde, it will free up an additional $28.375M in salary, bringing the total available cap space to $29,664,024. That is ample money to sign their rookie class and bring in a few mid-tier free agents. If they end up cutting Jefferson, Beasley, Poyer, and Hughes, it could free up an additional $28,093,750, essentially doubling the money they have available. However, those cuts appear unlikely, unless they are seeking to extend Josh Allen this off-season. Allen earned a significant payday with his play in 2020, and they’re either going to have to pony up this off-season or next with a lucrative deal.