Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Los Angeles Chargers
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Los Angeles Chargers.
Cap Liabilities: $164,401,053
Cap Space: $23,801,246
Potential Cut Candidates
Casey Hayward, CB, 31
Cap #: $11.75M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2M
Cap Savings: $9.75M
Likely to be cut? Yes. But if not him, then Chris Harris Jr. I don’t think they’ll cut both, but I do think one is gone. Both underperformed in 2020 compared to their salary. I think Hayward is the more likely cut because he has a higher salary.
Chris Harris, CB, 31
Cap #: $11.25M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $3.75M
Cap Savings: $7.5M
Likely to be cut? No, but see the comments on Casey Hayward above. One of them is probably gone, given that both underperformed last year and are on the wrong side of 30.
Mike Williams, WR, 26
Cap #: $15.68M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $15.68M
Likely to be cut? Yep. Or at least, he should be. Williams is an OK number 2 wide receiver, but he has done nothing to justify a salary that would make him among the top-ten highest paid at his position. His $15.68M cap hit woiuld put him ahead of wide receivers like Stefone Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Adam Thielen, and DeVante Parker. He can’t possibly be kept at that kind of salary.
Trai Turner, RG, 27
Cap #: $11.5M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $11.5M
Likely to be cut? No. He’s got a huge salary for a guard, but he’s one of the only sure things on an offensive line full of question marks. The Chargers need to prioritize protecting Justin Herbert, so Turner should not be going anywhere.
Linval Joseph, DT, 32
Cap #: $11.9M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $4M
Cap Savings: $7.9M
Likely to be cut? Probably not. I really want to say yes, but he provided stable play last season, and they really don’t have a replacement on the roster given the complete inability of Jerry Tillery to play at a competent NFL level. (I was totally wrong about Tillery - I thought that dude was going to be a star.)
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
The Bolts’ #1 priority should be re-signing Melvin Ingram, so they’re going to need to make sure they have enough money to bring him back while addressing other needs. Hunter Henry is also a free agent, but he’s never really lived up to his draft pedigree and I can see them letting him test the market. Re-signing him becomes paramount, though, if they move on from WIlliams. The team will also likely make an effort to bring back ILB Denzel Perryman, who posted his highest PFF grade as a pro in 2020.
If the Chargers cut Hayward and Williams, it will free up an additional $25.43M, leading to a total of $49.23M in cap space. This is likely sufficient to re-sign Ingram and Perryman, make a reasonable run at Henry, sign the rookie class, and make a run at a couple mid-tier free agents.