Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Las Vegas Raiders
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Cap Liabilities: $208,077,140
Cap Space: -$18,675,669
Potential Cut Candidates
Derek Carr, QB, 30
Cap #: $22.125M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.5M
Cap Savings: $19.625M
Likely to be cut? Not a chance. Carr has been a hot commodity on the trade market this off-season, and the Raiders have been telling potential suitors he is not available. He’ll be back under center for Vegas in 2021, and likely beyond.
Trent Brown, RT, 28
Cap #: $14M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $14M
Likely to be cut? No. Brown is overpaid, but he’s still a reliable option at RT and is in his prime.
Gabe Jackson, 30
Cap #: $9.6M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $9.6M
Likely to be cut? Probably not. While it would be nice to shed his salary from the books, he’s still a decent player, and he’s not paid at the top end of the market for guards. They’ll have a lot of continuity on the offensive line if they can return 4 of 5 starters, and continuity is almost always a good thing.
Lamarcus Joyner, S, 31
Cap #: $11.2M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.25M
Cap Savings: $9.95M
Likely to be cut? Yes. There aren’t too many safeties over the age of 30 who justify an 8-figure salary. His PFF grade last year was a paltry 53.8, and they just can’t bring him back at a high salary with that type of performance. He hasn’t been the player they thought they were getting when they signed him away from the Rams.
Marcus Mariota, QB, 28
Cap #: $10.1M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $10.1M
Likely to be cut? Yes, or traded. Hard to justify spending $10M on a backup QB when they are firmly committed to Carr. That wasn’t the case last off-season when they signed Mariota, but Carr has solidified himself as the leader of Jon Gruden’s offense.
Richie Incognito, LG, 38
Cap #: $6.35M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $6.35M
Likely to be cut? Yes. To be frank, I had no idea Incognito was still in the league. I thought he retired several years ago. It’s difficult to see them paying a $6M salary to a guy who is nearly 40 and who has been a problem ever since he entered the league.
Tyrell Williams, WR, 29
Cap #: $11.6M
Guaranteed: $1M
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $10.6M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Technically, Williams has already been informed of his release, but the numbers had not updated to OTC’s website when I researched and wrote this article. I used the pre-June 1 cut numbers for the salary figures above.
Potential Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Joyner, Mariota, Incognito, and Williams frees up $37M in cap space, which will get them about $18M under the cap. That lets them go after a couple mid-level free agents (assuming they won’t try to re-sign Nelson Agholor, Vic Beasley, and Jonathan Hankins) and also sign their rookie class. Despite being over the cap at this moment, they’re actually in pretty decent shape.