Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Indianapolis Colts

INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.

There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.

Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.

Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.

This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Indianapolis Colts.

Cap Liabilities: $153,593,783

Cap Space: $43,635,239

Potential Cut Candidates

1. Jack Doyle, TE, 30

   • Cap #: $5.85M

   • Guaranteed: $0

   • Dead Money: $750K

   • Cap Savings:  $5.1M

   • Likely to be cut? Probably. Doyle has never really been a special player, and probably isn’t worth a salary near $6M. They may make a run at someone like Hunter Henry, and clearing out Doyle’s salary would get them about half of what they would need to sign a player like that. They also still have Mo Alie-Cox (a restricted free agent) waiting in the wings.

2. Mark Glowinski, RG, 28

   • Cap #: $6.65M

   • Guaranteed: $0

   • Dead Money: $1.4M

   • Cap Savings:  $5.25M

   • Likely to be cut? Probably not. Before Anthony Castonzo’s retirement I would have said yes, because this is a league-average player at an above-average salary. But teams like to have continuity along their offensive line, and i doubt the Colts want to have two new starting linemen next season. Glowinski is probably back for 2021.

3. Grover Stewart, DT, 27

   • Cap #: $8.25M

   • Guaranteed: $0

   • Dead Money: $1.25M

   • Cap Savings:  $7M

   • Likely to be cut? Probably not. He’s overpaid, but they’ve got plenty of cap space. The only way he’s gone is if there are bigger impact free agents available in the second and third waves of free agency that they need to clear cap space to sign.

Potential Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made

The retirement of LT Anthony Castonzo cleared out $16M in cap space, which the Colts promptly used to absorb Carson Wentz’s $25M cap hit. If they cut Jack Doyle, they’ll have almost $49M in cap space, which is plenty to re-sign FS Malik Hooker, CB Xavier Rhodes, and ILB Anthony Walker, while also making a run at some marquee free agents like TE Hunter Henry or WR Juju Smith-Schuster. They need to make life easy for Wentz.