Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Kansas City Chiefs
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Cap Liabilities: $213,227,129
Cap Space: -$23,132,376
Potential Cut Candidates
Tyrann Mathieu, S, 28
Cap #: $19,733,334
Guaranteed: 0
Dead Money: $4,933,334
Cap Savings: $14.8M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Cutting Mathieu gets them back under the cap with just one move.
Eric Fisher, LT, 29
Cap #: $15,150,418
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $3,181,668
Cap Savings: $11,968,750
Likely to be cut? No. Fisher missed the Super Bowl, which highlighted just how important he is to the team’s success. Patrick Mahomes looked downright ordinary (if not subpar) when constantly being harassed by pass rushers when protected by replacement-level offensive linemen. The Chiefs need Fisher, and he’ll be back in 2021.
Tyreek Hill, WR,
Cap #: $15,850,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.65M
Cap Savings: $13,200,500
Likely to be cut? No, barring another off-field incident. But a restructure might be possible if it helps them free up some space. Hill and Kelce make a lethal receiving duo for Patrick Mahomes, which all but assures he’ll be back in Kansas City this upcoming season. Although theoretically Mecole Hardman can fill his role in the offense, Hardman has had opportunities before when Hill has missed time and has shown that he is nowhere close to the same talent. Just because two guys are both fast doesn’t mean they’re interchangeable.
Damien Williams, RB, 28
Cap #: $2,708,334
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $533,334
Cap Savings: $2.175M
Likely to be cut? Yes. He opted out in 2020 and they didn’t miss a beat. They have a capable replacement on the roster in Darrel Williams, who is a restricted free agent and can be brought back for less than Damien.
Chad Henne, QB, 35
Cap #: $1.625M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $375K
Cap Savings: $1.25M
Likely to be cut? Probably not, but it could be close if they decide they really need the cap space. The Chiefs have had to rely on Henne in spurts when Mahomes has missed time with injury, and Andy Reid has shown that he trusts him to run the entire playbook. That wouldn’t necessarily be the case with a mid-to-late round rookie replacement.
Anthony Hitchens, LB, 28
Cap #: $10,723,750
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $4,223,750
Cap Savings: $6.5M
Likely to be cut? Probably yes. Hitchens is still a good player, but Willie Gay was drafted last season with the intention of replacing Hitchens.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Mathieu, Williams, and Hitchens would free up $23.475M in cap space, putting them about $300K under the cap. Additional restructures, or perhaps an unexpected cut, will be needed to get them sufficient cap space to sign their rookie class. In other words, don’t expect the Chiefs to be major players in free agency. They’ve got their work cut out for them just to bring back their core players.