Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Houston Texans
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Houston Texans.
Cap Liabilities: $177,451,025
Cap Space: $16,149,133
Potential Cut Candidates
David Johnson, RB, 29
Cap #: $9M
Guaranteed: $2.1M
Dead Money: $2.1M
Cap Savings: $6.9M
Likely to be cut? No. He should be, given his steep decline in play over the past several years, but the Texans have recently come out in the media and said they’d like to keep him around for 2021. His guaranteed money likely plays a part in that. [Editor’s note: Johnson has agreed to a restructured deal to lower his salary.]
Brandin Cooks, WR, 27
Cap #: $12M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $12M
Likely to be cut? No. It seems unlikely that they retain Will Fuller unless they franchise him, so Cooks and Randall Cobb are needed to be the base for the wide receiver corps next year.
Bradley Roby, CB, 28
Cap #: $10,253,676
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $9,253,676
Likely to be cut? Probably not. He makes a reasonable salary for his experience level, and he’s the best player in the secondary.
Brandon Dunn, DT, 28
Cap #: $4.25M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $500K
Cap Savings: $3.75M
Likely to be cut? Maybe, but I don’t see it after Watt’s release. He becomes a more valuable piece of the rotation absent Watt.
Darren Fells, TE, 34
Cap #: $2.8M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $500K
Cap Savings: $2.3M
Likely to be cut? No. He’s not a special player by any means, but he’s a reliable blocker and they have him at essentially a replacement-level salary.
Potential Cap Space
The Texans have already started cleaning house. Face-of-the-franchise defensive end JJ Watt was cut after asking for his release, clearing up $17.5M in cap space. In addition, center Nick Martin was cut, clearing an additional $7.5M; RB Duke Johnson’s release freed up $5.15M; and RG Senio Kelemete’s release freed up $1.75M. This took the Texans from being about $16M over the cap to $16M under it. They’re not likely to be very good in 2021, so it’s hard to see them making a big splash in free agency, and also unlikely to franchise tag Will Fuller. They’re in the midst of a rebuild and need to embrace it.