Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Pittsburgh Steelers
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font.) Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Cap Liabilities: $214,962,219
Cap Space: -$34,011,664
Given that Pittsburgh is grossly over the cap, they’re going to have to make some difficult cuts this year. They are likely going to have to let go of some players they’d prefer to keep. Also, the way they structure their contract appears to be very different from most other teams. With most NFL teams, contracts are structured such that if a player is cut beyond the second year of his deal, there is a minimal dead money hit and substantial cap savings. Not so for Pittsburgh. They typically structure their deals with close to a 50-50 or 60-40 dead money vs. cap savings formula. It’s not ideal, as it will require them to make additional cuts to get under the cap.
Potential Cut Candidates
Vance McDonald, TE, 30
Cap #: $7,927,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2,727,500
Cap Savings: $5.2M
Likely to be cut? He gone. A 30-year-old tight end with a history of (at best) average production does not justify an $8M cap hit.
Eric Ebron, TE, 27
Cap #: $8.5M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.5M
Cap Savings: $6M
Likely to be cut? Probably. Although Pittsburgh would likely prefer to retain him, their cap situation is such that they need the $6M cap savings. They’ve got Chase Claypool as their red zone weapon now, anyway.
Chris Boswell, K, 29
Cap #: $4,773,333
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1,683,333
Cap Savings: $3,090,000
Likely to be cut? Bye, Felicia. Kickers are a dime a dozen. The three million in cap savings they’d realize by Boswell’s release almost assures that he’ll be cut.
Maurkice Pouncey, C, 31
Cap #: $14.475M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $6.475M
Cap Savings: $8M
Likely to be cut? Yes. His play was bad down the stretch, and he likely cost them the playoff game with his first-play-from-scrimmage snap into the endzone, which the Browns recovered for a touchdown. (They never looked back, dominating the Steelers in hysterical fashion.) Pouncey has a top-5 salary at center, and he’s no longer a top-5 player. Pretty easy cut.
David DeCastro, RG, 30
Cap #: $14,297,500
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $5,547,500
Cap Savings: $8.75M
Likely to be cut? Probably not. I really want to say yes, given the cap savings they’d realize, but with Pouncey a likely cut and Alejandro Villaneuva unlikely to return, the Steelers need as much stability on the offensive line as they can get - especially with a geriatric Ben Roethlisberger returning. This is the last year of DeCastro’s deal, so if anything, they might give him an extension to try to lower the cap number.
Cam Heyward, DE, 31
Cap #: $14.55M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $4.05M
Cap Savings: $10.5M
Likely to be cut? Hard to say, but I lean towards yes. This is one of those tough cuts we talked about at the outset. Heyward is still a really good player and is a leader for this team. But they’ve got to find some money somewhere. Ben Roethlisberger’s $41M cap hit has really got them in a bind. He’s the heart and soul of the defense, though, so it may end up being him over DeCastro.
Joe Haden, CB, 31
Cap #: $15.575M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $8.575M
Cap Savings: $7M
Likely to be cut? Probably yes, though this is also a really tough call. Behind Ben Roethlisberger, Haden has the highest cap number on the team. Like DeCastro and Heyward, he’s entering the final year of his deal, so he’s also a candidate to be extended if they don’t want to cut him outright. He’s got one of those wacky contracts the Steelers love where he’s got more of a dead money hit than realized cap savings if cut, so that may be what saves him.
Steven Nelson, CB, 27
Cap #: $14.42M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $6.17M
Cap Savings: $8.25M
Likely to be cut? No. But it’s probably him or Haden. I gave the nod to Nelson because he’s four years younger than Haden and is still in his prime. But honestly, I was shocked his salary was this high.
Stephon Tuitt, DE, 27
Cap #: $14,940,750
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $5,940,750
Cap Savings: $9M
Likely to be cut? No. Good organizations (and though I had to admit it, the Steelers are a good organization) don’t cut quality defensive linemen in their prime.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
If the Steelers cut McDonald, Ebron, Boswell, Pouncey, Haden, and Heyward, they will get themselves back into the black and have $5,778,336 in cap space. Additionally, they are still waiting on the NFL to approve whether they get to roll over another $5M in unused cap space from 2020. A restructure or extension of a veteran like DeCastro could get them an extra couple million, which would net them the $12M or so they need to sign their rookie draft class. It’s tight, but it’s workable. There are also some lower tier veterans likely to be cut, and those salaries will be used on back-end-of-the-roster players to fill out the team.
Even as I sit here typing this out, it just doesn’t feel right. Is the team really going to keep Steven Nelson or Joe Haden over Cam Heyward? I guess we’ll see. Heyward’s cap number and age, given their cap situation, suggest he should be gone. But good teams don’t often cut team leaders who are still productive. Going into next season without both Haden and Nelson would leave them awfully thin at corner, though. And their pass rush is also going to lose some juice, as Bud Dupree is sure to walk in free agency. They may just need to bring Heyward back for one more rodeo to help solidify the defense. Instead of cutting both of their corners, they may release just one of them, and cut RG David DeCastro instead, and extend Heyward, going into next season with a patchwork offensive line. It would be difficult to go into next season without Villanueva, Pouncey, and DeCastro, but it’s probably more difficult to replace a Hall-of-Fame caliber player like Heyward than a RG like DeCastro.
Let’s be real. This situation is too tough to project. It makes my head spin.